40 20 07-01 04-01 10-01 01-01 01-01 01-01 01-01 04-01 10-01 07-01 图表4: 欧盟排放配额(EUA)行情信息-期货、现货 期货结算价(欧元/吨) 期货成交量(万手) 期货持仓量(万手) 持仓量 成交量 2026-01-02 2026-01-05 增减 涨跌幅 增减 87. 25 88. 31 -1. 20% 35. 66 2. 78 0. 00 1. 20 现货成交量(手) 现货结算价(欧元/吨) 集运碳成本 (美元/TEU) 即期成本 成交量 运费占比 2026-01-02 2026-01-05 增减 涨跌幅 86. 22 29. 88 -1.22% 85. 17 1884 1106 1.77% 图表5: EUA期现价格及基差 图表6:12月合约持仓-李节性图 -2027 -2023 -- 2024 -2025 -- 2026 ==基差(右轴) == 现货价格 欧元/吨 -期货价格 万手 100 John Arthur 40 20 10 - -50 04-01 07-01 10-01 01-01 01-1 2022-01 2023-01 202 ...

EUA拍卖量 EUA拍卖价格 CBAM证书价格 拍卖收入 投标覆盖比 (万欧元) (欧元/吨) (欧元/吨) (万吨) 2026-01-02 0.00 84. 60 #N/A #N/A O 2025-12-31 0.00 84. 60 #N/A #N/A o 图表2: EUA拍卖价格走势-季节性图 图表3: EUA拍卖投标覆盖比-李节性图 =2022 -- 2024 -- 2025 -- 2026 xt.la -- 2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -- 2026 -- 2026 100 欧元/吨 80 and and with and with and 40 20 07-01 01-0′ 04-01 10-01 01-01 01-01 01-01 04-01 10-01 07-01 图表4:欧盟排放配额(EUA)行情信息-期货、现货 期货持仓量(万手) 期货结算价(欧元/吨) 期货成交量(万手) 2025-12-31 2026-01-02 持仓量 成交量 增减 涨跌幅 壇减 35. 60 1.08% #VALUE ! 87. 37 88. 31 0. 00 1. 58 集运碳成本 (美元/TEU) ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The report is bullish on EUA, with a signal strength of 2 today (0 for empty position, ±1 for slightly bullish/bearish, ±2 for bullish/bearish). There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. The bullish factor is that the EU ETS quota benchmark value may be significantly lowered based on the CBAM benchmark value, tightening the carbon market supply. The bearish factors include a small reduction of about 930,000 tons in the long positions of investment funds in EUA according to the latest CoT report, and the "US-Russia peace plan" indicating that Russia will be able to export more natural gas [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price was 81.51 euros/ton (0.39% change), and the bid - cover ratio was 1.67. On November 26, 2025, the CBAM certificate price was 81.51 euros/ton, the EUA auction price was 80.59 euros/ton, the EUA auction volume was 2.1625 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.67, and the auction revenue was 176.27 million euros [2][4]. - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price was 81.68 euros/ton (-0.23%), and the trading volume was 46,700 lots (0.15 change). The spot settlement price was 81.58 euros/ton (-0.22%), and the spot trading volume was 1,680 lots [2][5]. Strategy - The signal strength today is 2, indicating a bullish stance [2]. Core Logic - **Bullish Factor**: Based on the CBAM benchmark value, the EU ETS quota benchmark value may be significantly lowered, leading to a further tightening of the carbon market supply [2]. - **Bearish Factors**: (1) The latest CoT report shows that investment funds slightly reduced their long positions in EUA by about 930,000 tons; (2) The "US - Russia peace plan" indicates that Russia will be able to export more natural gas [2]. - **Other Information**: (1) As of November 22, EU underground gas storage was about 79%, lower than the 5 - year seasonal average for the same period and significantly lower than 88.3% in the same period last year, with a thinner winter buffer. It continued to decline in the past week. (2) The natural gas plant maintenance in the North Sea and the Norwegian side is mainly planned, and the unplanned event of the UK TGPP from November 23 for about 4 days has limited systematic impact on the supply to the European continent [2][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy softening impact is fermenting, and EUA continues to decline [1] - The recommended strategy is to go short on rallies with a light position [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price is 80.07 euros/ton (-1.46%), and the bid - cover ratio is 1.53 [1] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 80.17 euros/ton (-1.62%), with a trading volume of 33,900 lots (0.72) [1] Strategy - The strategy is to go short on rallies with a light position [1] Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: There are no new positive factors [1] - **Negative Factors**: TF prices have declined due to mild weather and stable supply; some EU legislators plan to push for a delay of ETS2 by at least three years [1] - **Other Factors**: The US is asking the EU to get rid of Russian gas faster and expand the "Vertical Corridor" connecting Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine [1] Market Data Charts - **Auction Market Data**: On November 6, 2025, the CBAM certificate price was 80.07 euros/ton, the EUA auction price was 78.20 euros/ton, the EUA auction volume was 3.268 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.53, and the auction revenue was 261.67 million euros [3] - **Futures and Spot Market Data**: On November 6, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 80.17 euros/ton, the futures trading volume was 33,900 lots, and the futures position was 372,500 lots; the spot settlement price was 79.96 euros/ton, and the spot trading volume was 1903 lots [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Investment fund long positions are continuously increasing, but the climate target has significantly softened, leading to a high - level decline of EUA [1] - The trading strategy is to short at high prices with a light position [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price is not available, and the bid - cover ratio is also not available [1] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 81.49 euros/ton, a decrease of 1.00%, and the trading volume is 26,700 lots, a decrease of 0.80 [1] Strategy - Adopt the strategy of shorting at high prices with a light position [1] Core Logic - **Positive Factors**: The latest CoT report shows that last week, the net long positions of investment funds increased to 2.636 million tons; the liquefied natural gas tanker freight rate has soared significantly due to the approaching winter in the Northern Hemisphere, tight ship supply, and logistics delays [1] - **Negative Factors**: The EU Council has determined the medium - term climate target to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% compared to the 1990 level by 2040 (including 5% high - quality international carbon credits) and proposed to postpone the launch of EU ETS2 [1][2] Risk - The EU economy may experience a recession; the EU may increase auctions to raise funds; the emission cap may be weakened [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and EUA maintains a narrow - range oscillation. The recommended strategy is to lightly short at high prices. There are no new positive or negative factors [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price is 78.71 euros/ton (up 0.20%), and the bid - cover ratio is 1.6 [1] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 78.67 euros/ton (down 0.18%), with a trading volume of 22,200 lots (up 0.05) [1] Other Information - Multiple European truck manufacturers have written to the European Commission, requesting the relaxation of CO₂ emission targets for heavy - duty vehicles, stating that the current targets are "difficult to achieve" [1][2]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 181, 2025)" and was released on October 21, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Market Quotes Primary Market - The EUA auction price was 78.75 euros/ton with a 0.97% change, and the bid - cover ratio was 1.6. On October 20, 2025, the CBAM certificate price was 78.75 euros/ton, EUA auction price was 78.51 euros/ton, the auction volume was 326,800 tons, and the auction revenue was 25,736,000 euros [2][5] Secondary Market - The EUA futures settlement price was 79.82 euros/ton with a 0.45% change, and the trading volume was 25,300 lots with a - 0.69 change. The spot settlement price on October 20, 2025 was 79.15 euros/ton with a 0.47% change, and the spot trading volume was 361 lots with a 1.67% change [2][6] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The strategy is to lightly hold positions and sell high [2] Group 4: Core Logic - There are no new positive or negative factors. The European Council and the Energy/Environment Ministerial Meeting are being held this week, with the political focus on phasing out Russian fossil fuels and passing a climate strategy before COP30 [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The EUA is struggling to rise and has not yet broken through the 80 - euro mark. The recommended strategy is to lightly short on rallies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price was 77.99 euros/ton with a 0.22% change, and the bid - cover ratio was 1.98 [1]. - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price was 79.46 euros/ton, a - 0.06% change, and the trading volume was 32,200 lots with a 0.52 change [1]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is to lightly short on rallies [1]. Influencing Factors - **Positive**: The IMO net - zero framework vote has been postponed by one year, weakening the impact on the EU's shipping decarbonization framework [1]. - **Negative**: There are no new negative factors [1]. - **Other**: Qatar's energy minister stated that if the EU does not relax the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, Qatar will be unable to continue supplying LNG to Europe, and Qatar accounts for 12 - 14% of Europe's LNG supply. Russia demands that Ukraine hand over full control of Donetsk as a condition to end the war [1]. Data Tables - **Auction Data**: On October 17, 2025, the EUA auction price was 77.99 euros/ton, the auction volume was 1.691 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.98, and the auction revenue was 131.88 million euros [2]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: On October 17, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 79.46 euros/ton, the trading volume was 32,200 lots, and the open interest was 360,200 lots. The spot settlement price was 79.15 euros/ton, and the trading volume was 896 lots [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market contradictions are not prominent, and the EUA price is oscillating at a high level. The recommended strategy is to lightly short at high prices. There are no new factors on the bullish, bearish, or other fronts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price was 75.56 euros/ton, a decrease of 0.05%, and the bid - cover ratio was 1.08. On September 25, 2025, the auction volume was 326,800 tons, and the auction revenue was 246.93 million euros [2][4]. - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price was 75.76 euros/ton, a decrease of 0.34%, and the trading volume was 25,400 lots, an increase of 0.33. The spot settlement price was 75.61 euros/ton, a decrease of 0.33%, and the spot trading volume was 1,313 lots [2][5]. Strategy The recommended strategy is to lightly short at high prices [2]. Factors Affecting the Market There are no new bullish, bearish, or other factors affecting the market [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the compliance period approaches, EUA continues to decouple from European energy and the stock market, showing an upward trend with fluctuations [1] - The strategy is to buy low and sell high, with a price range of €63 - 76 [1] - There are no new positive or negative factors [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs EUA Auction Information - On August 29, 2025, the EUA auction price was 71.30 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 70.99 euros/ton, the auction volume was 161.45 million tons, the bid - coverage ratio was 1.82, and the auction revenue was 115.11 million euros [3] - On August 28, 2025, the EUA auction price was 71.18 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 70.99 euros/ton, the auction volume was 324.45 million tons, the bid - coverage ratio was 1.39, and the auction revenue was 230.94 million euros [3] EUA Futures and Spot Market Information - On August 29, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 72.99 euros/ton (up 1.77%), the trading volume was 23,400 lots (down 0.12 lots), and the open interest was unchanged [1][4] - On August 29, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 72.46 euros/ton (up 1.78%), the trading volume was 2,644 lots, the container shipping carbon cost was 16.86 US dollars/TEU, and the freight cost ratio was 1.14% [4]