40 20 07-01 01-01 04-01 10-01 01-01 01-01 01-01 04-01 10-01 07-01 图表4:欧盟排放配额(EUA)行情信息-期货、现货 期货持仓量(万手) 期货结算价(欧元/吨) 期货成交量(万手) 持仓量 成交量 2025-09-24 2025-09-25 增减 涨跌幅 增减 -0. 34% 76.02 35. 47 2. 54 75. 76 0. 33 0. 00 现货成交量(手) 现货结算价(欧元/吨) 集运碳成本 (美元/TEU) 即期成本 2025-09-24 2025-09-25 运费占比 成交量 增减 涨跌幅 -0. 33% 75. 36 -2877 75. 61 1313 17.66 1.68% 图表5: EUA期现价格及基差 图表6:12月合约持仓-李节性图 -2026 -- 2025 -2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -期货价格 欧元/吨 == 基差(右轴) =- 现货价格 万手 50 100 www. would on and with 20 -50 04-01 07-01 10-01 01-01 01-1 2023-01 202 ...

| | 发布日期:2025-09-01 | | --- | --- | | 最新 | 履约期临近,EUA继续与欧洲能源、股市脱钩,震荡上行 | | | 仁佳 【、一级:拍卖价格/1.3欧元/吨(0.17%),技标覆盖比1.8/ | | | 2、二级：EUA期货结算价72.99欧元/吨(1.77%)，成交2.34万手(-0.12)。 | | | 策略 高抛低吸,区间€63~76 | | | 利多:暂无新增。 | | 核心 | 利空:暂无新增。 | | 逻辑 | 其他:1冯德莱恩表示欧盟有战后在乌克兰部署部队的计划;2美国上诉法院认定特 | | | 朗普的全球关税非法，美国总统做出反应，称他将"在美国最高法院的帮助下"进行 | 反击。 风险 1、欧盟经济衰退;2、欧盟增加拍卖以筹备资金;3、排放上限弱化 图表1:欧盟排放配额(EUA)最新拍卖行情信息 欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2025年第155期) 国泰君安期货 | EUA拍卖价格 CBAM证书价格 | | EUA拍卖量 | 投标覆盖比 | 拍卖收入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (欧元/吨) | (欧元/吨) | (万吨) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The EUA price showed a slight rebound, with the investment funds increasing long - positions. The trading strategy is to sell high and buy low within the range of €63 - 76 [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: On August 13, 2025, the EUA auction volume was 0.00 million tons, the auction price was not available, and the bid - cover ratio was not available. On August 12, 2025, the EUA auction volume was 324.55 million tons, the auction price was 71.30 euros/ton, the bid - cover ratio was 1.58, and the auction revenue was 231.40 million euros [4]. - **Secondary Market**: - **Futures**: On August 13, 2023, the EUA futures settlement price was 71.74 euros/ton, up 0.34%, with a trading volume of 1.48 million lots, a decrease of 0.30 million lots. The futures open interest was 33.35 million lots, with no change [2][5]. - **Spot**: On August 13, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 71.13 euros/ton, up 0.35%, and the trading volume was 1579 lots less than the previous day, a decrease of 0.85%. The container shipping carbon cost was 659 US dollars/TEU, and the freight cost accounted for 16.63% [5]. Strategy - The trading strategy is to sell high and buy low within the range of €63 - 76 [2]. Core Logic - **Positive Factors**: - The latest CoT report shows that last week, the net long - positions of investment funds increased by 8.11 million tons, mainly due to long - position increases [2]. - The 27 EU countries have not sent a clear signal of willingness to relax sanctions on Russia [2]. - The restart of 4 reactors totaling 5.4GW affected by the storm has been postponed, and EDF expects the restart to be completed by August 15 at the earliest [2]. - High temperatures will increase the cooling demand this week, driving up fossil - fuel power generation and EUA demand [2]. - **Negative Factors**: German Chancellor Merz said after a video call with European leaders and Trump that there is hope for progress in the Ukraine peace talks after the meeting with Trump [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests a trading strategy of buying low and selling high within the price range of €63 - 76. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the EU carbon market. Positive factors include increased buying due to approaching compliance deadlines and strong auctions in the German primary market. Negative factors are the widening short - term marginal cost difference between gas and coal, which encourages power generation to use more natural gas [1]. 3. Market Conditions Summary Primary Market - The auction price was 72.14 euros/ton, with a 2.91% increase, and the bid - cover ratio was 1.67 [1]. - On August 8, 2025, the EUA auction price was 72.14 euros/ton, the auction volume was 160,700 tons, and the auction revenue was 115.93 million euros. On August 7, 2025, the EUA auction price was 70.10 euros/ton, the auction volume was 324,550 tons, and the auction revenue was 227.51 million euros [2]. Secondary Market - The EUA futures settlement price was 73.21 euros/ton, up 2.01%, and the trading volume was 28,200 lots, with an increase of 0.28 [1]. - On August 8, 2025, compared with August 7, 2025, the futures settlement price increased from 71.77 to 73.21 euros/ton, the trading volume increased from 2.54 to 2.82 million lots, and the open interest remained unchanged. The spot settlement price increased from 71.14 to 72.56 euros/ton, and the spot trading volume decreased from 2462 to 1602 lots [3]. 4. Strategy and Influencing Factors Strategy - The strategy is to buy low and sell high, with the price range between €63 and 76 [1]. Influencing Factors - Positive: As the compliance deadline approaches, compliance demand drives buying, and the German primary market auction is strong [1]. - Negative: The short - term marginal cost difference between gas and coal further widens, encouraging power generation to use more natural gas instead of coal [1]. - Others: Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska this Friday to discuss the Ukraine issue, and it is hinted that the final armistice agreement may involve territorial exchange [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy fundamentals are weak, and EUA prices follow this trend. The recommended strategy is to buy low and sell high within the range of €63 - 76. There are both利多 and利空 factors affecting the market. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price is 69.68 euros/ton (-0.53%), and the bid - cover ratio is 2.4. [2] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 69.89 euros/ton (-0.94%), with a trading volume of 18,000 lots (-0.20). [2] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to buy low and sell high within the price range of €63 - 76. [2] Core Logic - **利多**: The temperature in China and Europe will be higher than the same period of the year, which will increase the demand for cooling electricity. [2] - **利空**: The solar power generation increases, and the remaining load in Germany is expected to decline; the energy benchmark price weakens. [2] - **Other**: A new round of attacks by Russia in Ukraine has caused three deaths, and Zelensky has proposed a new round of peace talks with Russia. [2] Market Data - **Auction Data**: On July 18, 2025, the EUA auction volume was 70.08 million tons, the CBAM certificate price was 160.70 euros/ton, the auction price was 69.68 euros/ton, the auction revenue was 111.98 million euros, and the bid - cover ratio was 2.4. [2] - **Futures and Spot Data**: On July 18, 2025, the futures settlement price was 69.89 euros/ton (-0.94%), the trading volume was 18,000 lots (-0.20), and the open interest was unchanged. The spot settlement price was 69.18 euros/ton (-0.92%), and the trading volume was 685 lots (-875). [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core View - The short - term outlook for EUA is bullish, while the medium - term is expected to be volatile, with a price range of €63 - 76 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - EUA auction price is 70.34 euros/ton, down 0.72%, and the bid - cover ratio is 1.46; EUA futures settlement price is 71.2 euros/ton, down 0.66%, with 1.76 ten - thousand lots traded, up 0.47 [2] - On July 7, 2025, EUA auction volume was 22,829 tons, auction price was 70.34 euros/ton, auction revenue was 324.55 million euros, and CBAM certificate price was 71.25 euros/ton [3] - From July 4 to July 7, 2025, EUA futures settlement price decreased from 71.67 to 71.20 euros/ton, down 0.66%; futures trading volume increased from 1.29 to 1.76 ten - thousand lots, up 0.47; futures open interest remained unchanged [4] - From July 4 to July 7, 2025, EUA spot settlement price decreased from 70.89 to 70.44 euros/ton, down 0.63%; spot trading volume increased from 2283 to 3352 lots; container shipping carbon cost increased from 11.97 to 12.04 dollars/TEU, and the proportion of freight increased from 0.57% to 0.57% [4] Strategy - The short - term strategy for EUA is bullish, and the medium - term is volatile, with a price range of €63 - 76 [2] Core Logic - Bullish factor: Trump signed an executive order to extend the suspension period of the "reciprocal tariff" from July 9 to August 1 [2] - Bearish factors: At the beginning of the week, the temperature in Central and Western Europe turned cooler, and the supply of wind and solar energy was sufficient, reducing the residual load; Sino - European trade frictions intensified [2]

Industry Investment Rating - Short-term bearish, medium-term oscillating, with a range of €67 - 76 [1] Core Viewpoints - The rise of European stock markets has led to a recovery in EUA prices. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market. Positive factors include the easing of the Middle East conflict and the collective rise of European stocks. Negative factors include the weakening of the energy fundamentals due to Iran's acceptance of the US - proposed cease - fire plan with Israel, the sharp drop in crude oil and TTF, and the agreement between EU member states and the European Parliament to relax gas storage regulations [1] Summary by Related Content EUA Auction Information - On June 24, 2025, the EUA auction price was 72.91 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 73.72 euros/ton, the auction volume was 324,550 tons, the bid coverage ratio was 1.32, and the auction revenue was 23,663,000 euros. On June 23, 2025, the EUA auction price was 72.00 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 73.11 euros/ton, the auction volume was 324,550 tons, the bid coverage ratio was 1.43, and the auction revenue was 23,368,000 euros [2] EUA Futures and Spot Market - On June 24, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 73.54 euros/ton, up 0.37%, with a trading volume of 38,600 lots, up 1.20. The spot settlement price was 72.67 euros/ton, up 0.40%, and the spot trading volume was 8,029 lots. The container shipping carbon cost was 12.50 US dollars/TEU, with a freight - cost ratio increase of 0.68% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term bearish, medium - term volatile, with a price range of €67 - 76 [1] Core Viewpoint - Weak demand offsets geopolitical risk premiums, causing the EUA price to continue to decline [1] Key Points from Related Content Market Data - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price is 74.05 euros/ton (-0.62%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.67 [1] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 74.64 euros/ton (-0.93%), with 25,600 contracts traded (-0.41) [1] Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Israel's air - strike on Iran and Iran's counter - attack led to concerns about disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and Middle - East energy infrastructure, causing oil prices to surge over 4%. Austria denied considering resuming imports from Gazprom [1] - **Negative Factors**: Germany's energy minister reiterated Germany's "interest" in future nuclear technologies such as SMR and fusion reactors. OPEC+ will increase production from May to July, and its spare capacity can fill potential supply gaps, reducing investor panic [1] Market Information Tables - **Auction Information**: On June 17, 2025, the EUA auction price was 74.05 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 73.11 euros/ton, the auction volume was 3.2455 million tons, the bid coverage ratio was 1.61, and the auction revenue was 240.33 million euros [1] - **Futures and Spot Information**: On June 17, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 74.64 euros/ton (-0.93%), the trading volume was 25,600 contracts (-0.41), the spot settlement price was 74.41 euros/ton (-0.93%), the spot trading volume was 2,860 contracts (-820), the container shipping carbon cost was 12.74 US dollars/TEU, and the cost - to - freight ratio increased by 0.69% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term bearish, medium - term volatile, with a price range of €67 - 76 [1] Core View - With signs of easing in the Middle East situation, the EUA price has slightly declined. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market [1] Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price is 74.51 euro/ton (-1.13%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.35. On June 16, 2025, the EUA auction volume was 324,550 tons, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euro/ton, and the auction revenue was 24,1820,000 euro [1][2] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 75.34 euro/ton (-0.79%), with a trading volume of 29,700 lots (0.00 change). The spot settlement price dropped 0.79% to 75 euro/ton, and the spot trading volume increased 0.70% to 2,962 lots. The container shipping carbon cost was 12.86 dollars/TEU [1][3] Bullish Factors - The EU is ready to accept a conditional 10% unified US tariff. There are differences in the market regarding the systematic impact of corrosion problems on the relatively new French Civaux 2 nuclear power plant [1] Bearish Factors - Austria calls for re - evaluating the EU's ban on Russian fossil fuel imports under the condition of peace in Ukraine. The US says it will postpone sanctions on Russia to reach an agreement. Iran hopes to ease hostilities with Israel and negotiate, leading to a drop in crude oil prices. Russia is slowly restarting the TurkStream pipeline to supply natural gas to Europe [1]

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 101 in 2025) [1] Release Date - June 16, 2025 [2] Latest Situation - Concerns about LNG supply disruptions have intensified, and excessively high energy prices may hinder industrial production [2] Auction Information - On June 13, 2025, the EUA auction price was 75.36 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the EUA auction volume was 1.607 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.84, and the auction revenue was 121.1 million euros [4] - On June 12, 2025, the EUA auction price was 72.71 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the EUA auction volume was 3.2455 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.31, and the auction revenue was 235.98 million euros [4] Futures and Spot Information Futures - On June 13, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 75.94 euros/ton (up 0.73%), the trading volume was 29,700 lots (down 0.70), and the open interest was 32.45 (up 0.20) [2][5] Spot - On June 13, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 74.46 euros/ton (up 0.73%), the trading volume was 718 lots (down 4,564), the container shipping carbon cost was 12.96 US dollars/TEU, and the freight cost ratio was 0.70% [5] Investment Strategy - Short - term bearish, medium - term volatile, with a range of €67 - 75 [2] Bullish Factors - The escalation of the Middle East conflict has pushed up energy prices; the failure of the French Civaux nuclear power plant has led to an increase in natural gas and electricity prices in the European continent; the European Commission will propose new regulations on June 17, requiring energy companies to fully disclose the terms, volumes, and destinations of Russian gas contracts, aiming to ban the import of Russian gas by the end of 2027 [2] Bearish Factors - Affected by weak industrial demand and increased domestic pipeline natural gas supply, China's LNG imports have dropped significantly [3]