Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - EU plans to increase free quota supply, causing EUA to plummet [1] - The signal strength is 0 (0 means short position, ±1 means bullish/bearish, ±2 means long/short) [1] - Bullish factor: Latest data shows EU natural gas inventory is only about 39 - 43%, with Germany, France, and the Netherlands having particularly low inventory, lower than last year's and long - term average [1] - Bearish factors: (1) European and American stock markets closed down collectively, spreading market pessimism; (2) EU plans to relax emission restrictions on EU ETS enterprises and consider increasing free quotas [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Conditions - Primary market: The auction price is 80.55 euros/ton (-0.31%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.45 [1] - Secondary market: The EUA futures settlement price is 78.2 euros/ton (-5.69%), and the trading volume is 71,700 lots (2.40) [1] - On February 5, 2026, the EUA auction price was 80.55 euros/ton, CBAM certificate price was 84.02 euros/ton, auction volume was 2.7125 million tons, bid coverage ratio was 1.45, and auction revenue was 218.49 million euros [3] - On February 4, 2026, the EUA auction price was 80.80 euros/ton, CBAM certificate price was 84.02 euros/ton, auction volume was 1.5245 million tons, bid coverage ratio was 2.03, and auction revenue was 123.18 million euros [3] - On February 5, 2026, the EUA futures settlement price was 78.20 euros/ton (-5.69%), trading volume increased by 2.40 ten - thousand lots to 7.17 ten - thousand lots, and the position remained unchanged at 35.55 ten - thousand lots [4] - On February 5, 2026, the EUA spot settlement price was 76.59 euros/ton (-5.67%), trading volume increased by 27.18% to 11,465 lots [4]

☆ 欲获取实时研究产品, 唐惠廷 国泰君安期货研究所 · 高级分析师 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021216 请咨询对口销售。 联系电话:021-33037830 欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2026年第17期) 发布日期:2026-01-29 关税潜忧仍在,EUA高位回落 敢新 1、一级：拍卖价格86.4欧元/吨(-1.27%)，投标覆盖比1.48; 行情 2、二级：EUA期货结算价87.13欧元/吨(-1.44%),成交3.70万手(0.93)。 信号强度:1(0为空仓,立1为偏多/空,土2为多/空) 策略 利多:暂无新增。 核心 利空:暂无新增。 逻辑 其他:(1欧洲议会下周将重新审议欧盟-美国贸易协议:(2欧洲同意大幅提升北海涡轮 机部署,目标为到2050年达到100吉瓦。 风险 1、欧盟经济衰退;2、欧盟增加拍卖以筹措资金;3、排放上限弱化 图表1:欧盟排放配额(EUA)最新拍卖行情信息 EUA拍卖量 CBAM证书价格 拍卖收入 EUA拍卖价格 投标覆盖比 (万欧元) (欧元/吨) (欧元/吨) (万吨) 2026-01-26 23436 271. 25 86. 40 89. 54 1.48 2026-01 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The cold wave supports the strengthening of EUA prices [1] - There are no new positive factors, and the primary (auction) market will restart on January 7, 2026, which is a negative factor [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - Primary market: Auction price and bid - cover ratio are not available [1] - Secondary market: EUA futures settled at 88.31 euros/ton (up 1.08%), with a trading volume of 15,800 lots [1] EUA Auction Information - On January 2, 2026, the EUA auction volume was 0.00 million tons, the auction price was 84.60 euros/ton, CBAM certificate price was not available, auction revenue was not available, and the bid - cover ratio was 0 [5] - On December 31, 2025, the EUA auction volume was 0.00 million tons, the auction price was 84.60 euros/ton, CBAM certificate price was not available, auction revenue was not available, and the bid - cover ratio was 0 [5] EUA Futures and Spot Information - On December 31, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 87.37 euros/ton, and on January 2, 2026, it was 88.31 euros/ton (up 1.08%); the trading volume on January 2, 2026, was 1.58 million lots [5] - On December 31, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 85.24 euros/ton, and on January 2, 2026, it was 86.22 euros/ton (up 1.15%); the trading volume on January 2, 2026, was 778 lots [5] Strategy - Today's signal strength is 1 (0 means empty position, ±1 means bullish/bearish bias, ±2 means bullish/bearish) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy softening impact is fermenting, and EUA continues to decline [1] - The recommended strategy is to go short on rallies with a light position [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price is 80.07 euros/ton (-1.46%), and the bid - cover ratio is 1.53 [1] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 80.17 euros/ton (-1.62%), with a trading volume of 33,900 lots (0.72) [1] Strategy - The strategy is to go short on rallies with a light position [1] Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: There are no new positive factors [1] - **Negative Factors**: TF prices have declined due to mild weather and stable supply; some EU legislators plan to push for a delay of ETS2 by at least three years [1] - **Other Factors**: The US is asking the EU to get rid of Russian gas faster and expand the "Vertical Corridor" connecting Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine [1] Market Data Charts - **Auction Market Data**: On November 6, 2025, the CBAM certificate price was 80.07 euros/ton, the EUA auction price was 78.20 euros/ton, the EUA auction volume was 3.268 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.53, and the auction revenue was 261.67 million euros [3] - **Futures and Spot Market Data**: On November 6, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 80.17 euros/ton, the futures trading volume was 33,900 lots, and the futures position was 372,500 lots; the spot settlement price was 79.96 euros/ton, and the spot trading volume was 1903 lots [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and EUA maintains a narrow - range oscillation. The recommended strategy is to lightly short at high prices. There are no new positive or negative factors [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price is 78.71 euros/ton (up 0.20%), and the bid - cover ratio is 1.6 [1] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 78.67 euros/ton (down 0.18%), with a trading volume of 22,200 lots (up 0.05) [1] Other Information - Multiple European truck manufacturers have written to the European Commission, requesting the relaxation of CO₂ emission targets for heavy - duty vehicles, stating that the current targets are "difficult to achieve" [1][2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the compliance period approaches, EUA continues to decouple from European energy and the stock market, showing an upward trend with fluctuations [1] - The strategy is to buy low and sell high, with a price range of €63 - 76 [1] - There are no new positive or negative factors [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs EUA Auction Information - On August 29, 2025, the EUA auction price was 71.30 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 70.99 euros/ton, the auction volume was 161.45 million tons, the bid - coverage ratio was 1.82, and the auction revenue was 115.11 million euros [3] - On August 28, 2025, the EUA auction price was 71.18 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 70.99 euros/ton, the auction volume was 324.45 million tons, the bid - coverage ratio was 1.39, and the auction revenue was 230.94 million euros [3] EUA Futures and Spot Market Information - On August 29, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 72.99 euros/ton (up 1.77%), the trading volume was 23,400 lots (down 0.12 lots), and the open interest was unchanged [1][4] - On August 29, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 72.46 euros/ton (up 1.78%), the trading volume was 2,644 lots, the container shipping carbon cost was 16.86 US dollars/TEU, and the freight cost ratio was 1.14% [4]

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 149, 2025) [1] Report Date - August 21, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - TTF price surge drives EUA futures prices to turn positive; strategy is to buy low and sell high within the range of €63 - 76 [2] Market Summary Primary Market - EUA auction price is 70.47 euros/ton (-1.26%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.66 [2] Secondary Market - EUA futures settlement price is 71.29 euros/ton (0.18%), with a trading volume of 17,700 lots (-0.40) [2] Strategy - Adopt a high - sell and low - buy strategy within the price range of €63 - 76 [2] Core Logic Bullish Factors - No new bullish factors [2] Bearish Factors - The latest CoT report shows that investment funds' net long positions decreased by 8.65 million tons last week due to significant long - position liquidation; under the newly passed regulations, European gas storage facilities must reach 90% of their capacity between October and December, and the current capacity utilization is 73.91%, indicating a loose EU natural gas supply [2] Other Information - Russia stated on Wednesday that it must participate in any discussions regarding Ukraine's security guarantees, weakening hopes for a quick peace agreement [2][3] Data Tables EUA Auction Information - On August 20, 2025, the EUA auction price was 70.47 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.17 euros/ton, the auction volume was 2.069 billion tons, the bid coverage ratio was 1.66, and the auction revenue was 145.8 million euros [4] - On August 19, 2025, the EUA auction price was 71.37 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.17 euros/ton, the auction volume was 3.2455 billion tons, the bid coverage ratio was 1.59, and the auction revenue was 231.63 million euros [4] EUA Futures and Spot Information - On August 20, 2025, the futures settlement price was 71.29 euros/ton (0.18% increase), the trading volume was 17,700 lots (-0.40), and the open interest was 335,200 lots (no change); the spot settlement price was 70.73 euros/ton (0.20% increase), and the trading volume was 1,233 lots (-5,020) [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term bearish, medium - term volatile, with a price range of €67 - 76 [1] Core Viewpoint - Weak demand offsets geopolitical risk premiums, causing the EUA price to continue to decline [1] Key Points from Related Content Market Data - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price is 74.05 euros/ton (-0.62%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.67 [1] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 74.64 euros/ton (-0.93%), with 25,600 contracts traded (-0.41) [1] Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Israel's air - strike on Iran and Iran's counter - attack led to concerns about disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and Middle - East energy infrastructure, causing oil prices to surge over 4%. Austria denied considering resuming imports from Gazprom [1] - **Negative Factors**: Germany's energy minister reiterated Germany's "interest" in future nuclear technologies such as SMR and fusion reactors. OPEC+ will increase production from May to July, and its spare capacity can fill potential supply gaps, reducing investor panic [1] Market Information Tables - **Auction Information**: On June 17, 2025, the EUA auction price was 74.05 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 73.11 euros/ton, the auction volume was 3.2455 million tons, the bid coverage ratio was 1.61, and the auction revenue was 240.33 million euros [1] - **Futures and Spot Information**: On June 17, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 74.64 euros/ton (-0.93%), the trading volume was 25,600 contracts (-0.41), the spot settlement price was 74.41 euros/ton (-0.93%), the spot trading volume was 2,860 contracts (-820), the container shipping carbon cost was 12.74 US dollars/TEU, and the cost - to - freight ratio increased by 0.69% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term bearish, medium - term volatile, with a price range of €67 - 76 [1] Core View - With signs of easing in the Middle East situation, the EUA price has slightly declined. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market [1] Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price is 74.51 euro/ton (-1.13%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.35. On June 16, 2025, the EUA auction volume was 324,550 tons, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euro/ton, and the auction revenue was 24,1820,000 euro [1][2] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 75.34 euro/ton (-0.79%), with a trading volume of 29,700 lots (0.00 change). The spot settlement price dropped 0.79% to 75 euro/ton, and the spot trading volume increased 0.70% to 2,962 lots. The container shipping carbon cost was 12.86 dollars/TEU [1][3] Bullish Factors - The EU is ready to accept a conditional 10% unified US tariff. There are differences in the market regarding the systematic impact of corrosion problems on the relatively new French Civaux 2 nuclear power plant [1] Bearish Factors - Austria calls for re - evaluating the EU's ban on Russian fossil fuel imports under the condition of peace in Ukraine. The US says it will postpone sanctions on Russia to reach an agreement. Iran hopes to ease hostilities with Israel and negotiate, leading to a drop in crude oil prices. Russia is slowly restarting the TurkStream pipeline to supply natural gas to Europe [1]

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 101 in 2025) [1] Release Date - June 16, 2025 [2] Latest Situation - Concerns about LNG supply disruptions have intensified, and excessively high energy prices may hinder industrial production [2] Auction Information - On June 13, 2025, the EUA auction price was 75.36 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the EUA auction volume was 1.607 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.84, and the auction revenue was 121.1 million euros [4] - On June 12, 2025, the EUA auction price was 72.71 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the EUA auction volume was 3.2455 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.31, and the auction revenue was 235.98 million euros [4] Futures and Spot Information Futures - On June 13, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 75.94 euros/ton (up 0.73%), the trading volume was 29,700 lots (down 0.70), and the open interest was 32.45 (up 0.20) [2][5] Spot - On June 13, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 74.46 euros/ton (up 0.73%), the trading volume was 718 lots (down 4,564), the container shipping carbon cost was 12.96 US dollars/TEU, and the freight cost ratio was 0.70% [5] Investment Strategy - Short - term bearish, medium - term volatile, with a range of €67 - 75 [2] Bullish Factors - The escalation of the Middle East conflict has pushed up energy prices; the failure of the French Civaux nuclear power plant has led to an increase in natural gas and electricity prices in the European continent; the European Commission will propose new regulations on June 17, requiring energy companies to fully disclose the terms, volumes, and destinations of Russian gas contracts, aiming to ban the import of Russian gas by the end of 2027 [2] Bearish Factors - Affected by weak industrial demand and increased domestic pipeline natural gas supply, China's LNG imports have dropped significantly [3]