| | 发布日期:2025-09-01 | | --- | --- | | 最新 | 履约期临近,EUA继续与欧洲能源、股市脱钩,震荡上行 | | | 仁佳 【、一级:拍卖价格/1.3欧元/吨(0.17%),技标覆盖比1.8/ | | | 2、二级：EUA期货结算价72.99欧元/吨(1.77%)，成交2.34万手(-0.12)。 | | | 策略 高抛低吸,区间€63~76 | | | 利多:暂无新增。 | | 核心 | 利空:暂无新增。 | | 逻辑 | 其他:1冯德莱恩表示欧盟有战后在乌克兰部署部队的计划;2美国上诉法院认定特 | | | 朗普的全球关税非法，美国总统做出反应，称他将"在美国最高法院的帮助下"进行 | 反击。 风险 1、欧盟经济衰退;2、欧盟增加拍卖以筹备资金;3、排放上限弱化 图表1:欧盟排放配额(EUA)最新拍卖行情信息 欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2025年第155期) 国泰君安期货 | EUA拍卖价格 CBAM证书价格 | | EUA拍卖量 | 投标覆盖比 | 拍卖收入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (欧元/吨) | (欧元/吨) | (万吨) ...

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 149, 2025) [1] Report Date - August 21, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - TTF price surge drives EUA futures prices to turn positive; strategy is to buy low and sell high within the range of €63 - 76 [2] Market Summary Primary Market - EUA auction price is 70.47 euros/ton (-1.26%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.66 [2] Secondary Market - EUA futures settlement price is 71.29 euros/ton (0.18%), with a trading volume of 17,700 lots (-0.40) [2] Strategy - Adopt a high - sell and low - buy strategy within the price range of €63 - 76 [2] Core Logic Bullish Factors - No new bullish factors [2] Bearish Factors - The latest CoT report shows that investment funds' net long positions decreased by 8.65 million tons last week due to significant long - position liquidation; under the newly passed regulations, European gas storage facilities must reach 90% of their capacity between October and December, and the current capacity utilization is 73.91%, indicating a loose EU natural gas supply [2] Other Information - Russia stated on Wednesday that it must participate in any discussions regarding Ukraine's security guarantees, weakening hopes for a quick peace agreement [2][3] Data Tables EUA Auction Information - On August 20, 2025, the EUA auction price was 70.47 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.17 euros/ton, the auction volume was 2.069 billion tons, the bid coverage ratio was 1.66, and the auction revenue was 145.8 million euros [4] - On August 19, 2025, the EUA auction price was 71.37 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.17 euros/ton, the auction volume was 3.2455 billion tons, the bid coverage ratio was 1.59, and the auction revenue was 231.63 million euros [4] EUA Futures and Spot Information - On August 20, 2025, the futures settlement price was 71.29 euros/ton (0.18% increase), the trading volume was 17,700 lots (-0.40), and the open interest was 335,200 lots (no change); the spot settlement price was 70.73 euros/ton (0.20% increase), and the trading volume was 1,233 lots (-5,020) [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term bearish, medium - term volatile, with a price range of €67 - 76 [1] Core Viewpoint - Weak demand offsets geopolitical risk premiums, causing the EUA price to continue to decline [1] Key Points from Related Content Market Data - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price is 74.05 euros/ton (-0.62%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.67 [1] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 74.64 euros/ton (-0.93%), with 25,600 contracts traded (-0.41) [1] Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Israel's air - strike on Iran and Iran's counter - attack led to concerns about disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and Middle - East energy infrastructure, causing oil prices to surge over 4%. Austria denied considering resuming imports from Gazprom [1] - **Negative Factors**: Germany's energy minister reiterated Germany's "interest" in future nuclear technologies such as SMR and fusion reactors. OPEC+ will increase production from May to July, and its spare capacity can fill potential supply gaps, reducing investor panic [1] Market Information Tables - **Auction Information**: On June 17, 2025, the EUA auction price was 74.05 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 73.11 euros/ton, the auction volume was 3.2455 million tons, the bid coverage ratio was 1.61, and the auction revenue was 240.33 million euros [1] - **Futures and Spot Information**: On June 17, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 74.64 euros/ton (-0.93%), the trading volume was 25,600 contracts (-0.41), the spot settlement price was 74.41 euros/ton (-0.93%), the spot trading volume was 2,860 contracts (-820), the container shipping carbon cost was 12.74 US dollars/TEU, and the cost - to - freight ratio increased by 0.69% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term bearish, medium - term volatile, with a price range of €67 - 76 [1] Core View - With signs of easing in the Middle East situation, the EUA price has slightly declined. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market [1] Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price is 74.51 euro/ton (-1.13%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.35. On June 16, 2025, the EUA auction volume was 324,550 tons, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euro/ton, and the auction revenue was 24,1820,000 euro [1][2] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 75.34 euro/ton (-0.79%), with a trading volume of 29,700 lots (0.00 change). The spot settlement price dropped 0.79% to 75 euro/ton, and the spot trading volume increased 0.70% to 2,962 lots. The container shipping carbon cost was 12.86 dollars/TEU [1][3] Bullish Factors - The EU is ready to accept a conditional 10% unified US tariff. There are differences in the market regarding the systematic impact of corrosion problems on the relatively new French Civaux 2 nuclear power plant [1] Bearish Factors - Austria calls for re - evaluating the EU's ban on Russian fossil fuel imports under the condition of peace in Ukraine. The US says it will postpone sanctions on Russia to reach an agreement. Iran hopes to ease hostilities with Israel and negotiate, leading to a drop in crude oil prices. Russia is slowly restarting the TurkStream pipeline to supply natural gas to Europe [1]

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 101 in 2025) [1] Release Date - June 16, 2025 [2] Latest Situation - Concerns about LNG supply disruptions have intensified, and excessively high energy prices may hinder industrial production [2] Auction Information - On June 13, 2025, the EUA auction price was 75.36 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the EUA auction volume was 1.607 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.84, and the auction revenue was 121.1 million euros [4] - On June 12, 2025, the EUA auction price was 72.71 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the EUA auction volume was 3.2455 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.31, and the auction revenue was 235.98 million euros [4] Futures and Spot Information Futures - On June 13, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 75.94 euros/ton (up 0.73%), the trading volume was 29,700 lots (down 0.70), and the open interest was 32.45 (up 0.20) [2][5] Spot - On June 13, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 74.46 euros/ton (up 0.73%), the trading volume was 718 lots (down 4,564), the container shipping carbon cost was 12.96 US dollars/TEU, and the freight cost ratio was 0.70% [5] Investment Strategy - Short - term bearish, medium - term volatile, with a range of €67 - 75 [2] Bullish Factors - The escalation of the Middle East conflict has pushed up energy prices; the failure of the French Civaux nuclear power plant has led to an increase in natural gas and electricity prices in the European continent; the European Commission will propose new regulations on June 17, requiring energy companies to fully disclose the terms, volumes, and destinations of Russian gas contracts, aiming to ban the import of Russian gas by the end of 2027 [2] Bearish Factors - Affected by weak industrial demand and increased domestic pipeline natural gas supply, China's LNG imports have dropped significantly [3]

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 100, 2025) [1] Report Date - June 13, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, with the price trends of the primary and secondary markets of EUA diverging. The short - term outlook is bearish, and the medium - term outlook is volatile, with a range of €67 - 75 [2] Summary by Directory Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price is 72.71 euros/ton (-1.07%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.31 [2] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 75.39 euros/ton (1.39%), and the trading volume is 36,700 lots (0.64) [2] Strategy - Short - term: Bearish; Medium - term: Volatile, range €67 - 75 [2] Core Logic - **Likely to Rise**: Israel's air strike on Iran makes the US - Iran peace talks scheduled for the weekend likely to be hopeless, and crude oil continues to rise significantly. Japan expands LNG procurement from the US to diversify procurement risks in the Middle East and the Asia - Pacific [2][3] - **Likely to Fall**: The EU accelerates the laying of high - voltage cables to support the integration of renewable energy into the grid [4] Risks - The EU resumes Russian gas supply; The EU increases auctions to raise funds; The emission cap is weakened [4] Chart Information - **Chart 1**: Shows EUA auction volume, CBAM certificate price, EUA auction price, auction revenue, and bid coverage ratio on June 11 - 12, 2025 [4] - **Chart 2**: Seasonal chart of EUA auction price trend - **Chart 3**: Seasonal chart of EUA auction bid coverage ratio - **Chart 4**: Shows EUA futures and spot market information on June 11 - 12, 2025, including futures settlement price, volume, open interest, spot settlement price, volume, container shipping carbon cost, etc. [4] - **Chart 5**: EUA futures and spot prices and basis - **Chart 6**: Seasonal chart of December contract open interest

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The auction price of EUA is 73.5 euros/ton (up 1.86%), with a bid - cover ratio of 1.56; the EUA futures settlement price is 74.36 euros/ton (up 2.34%), and the trading volume is 30,300 lots (up 0.28). The short - term strategy is bearish, and the medium - term is range - bound between €67 - 75. The latest CoT report shows that last week, investment funds' net long positions increased by 5.74 million tons, nearly half of which came from short - covering. The TTF strengthened due to factors such as French nuclear power maintenance and the EU's proposal to end the secret import of fuel from Russia. There are no new negative factors [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market - **Auction**: On June 11, 2025, the EUA auction price was 73.50 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the auction volume was 2.0725 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.56, and the auction revenue was 152.33 million euros. On June 10, 2025, the EUA auction price was 72.16 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the auction volume was 3.2455 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.64, and the auction revenue was 234.20 million euros [3]. - **Futures**: On June 11, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 74.36 euros/ton, up 2.34% from the previous day, and the trading volume was 30,300 lots, up 0.28. The open interest was 32.07 million lots, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - **Spot**: On June 11, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 73.43 euros/ton, up 2.34% from the previous day, and the trading volume decreased by 3,958 lots. The container shipping carbon cost was 12.83 US dollars/TEU, with a freight rate ratio of 0.77% [4].

Report Title - The report is titled "EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 96, 2025)" [1] Release Date - The report was released on June 9, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Neutral to bullish; Medium - term: Oscillation range of €67 - 75 [2] Core Viewpoints - EU ETS may be extended to international aviation, and EUA decoupled from TTF and strengthened [2] Market Conditions Primary Market - The auction price was 72.3 euros/ton, a decrease of 0.33%, and the bid - to - cover ratio was 1.74 [2] Secondary Market - The EUA futures settlement price was 73.5 euros/ton, an increase of 1.04%, and the trading volume was 16,000 lots, a decrease of 1.17 [2] Strategy - Short - term: Neutral to bullish; Medium - term: Oscillation range of €67 - 75 [2] Core Logic Bullish Factors - China's Ministry of Commerce proposed to relax rare - earth exports to the EU; The EU intends to extend EU ETS to international aviation [2] Bearish Factors - Germany's wind power supply increased, and the temperature in Central and Eastern Europe was slightly higher than the seasonal average; German industry lobbying groups demanded that the EU revoke the gasoline - car ban [2][3] Data Tables EUA Auction Information | EUA Auction Volume (10,000 tons) | EUA Auction Price (euros/ton) | CBAM Certificate Price (euros/ton) | Bid - to - Cover Ratio | Auction Revenue (10,000 euros) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 160.70 | 2025 - 06 - 06, 72.30 | 71.13 | 1.74 | 11,619 | | 324.55 | 2025 - 06 - 05, 72.54 | 71.13 | 1.46 | 23,543 | [4] EUA Futures and Spot Market Information | | Futures Settlement Price (euros/ton) | Futures Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Futures Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Spot Settlement Price (euros/ton) | Spot Trading Volume (lots) | Container Shipping Carbon Cost (US dollars/TEU) | Freight Cost Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 06 - 05 | 72.74 | | 32.12 | 71.79 | | | | | 2025 - 06 - 06 | 73.50, +1.04% | 1.60, - 1.17 | 32.12, 0.00 | 72.56, +1.07% | - 1260 | 12.71, +0.76% | 1051 | [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Neutral to bullish; Medium - term: Oscillation range between €67 - 75 [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Supply disturbances continue to push up TTF, while EUA shows a flat performance. There are no new negative factors, and the positive factor is that the Norwegian Kollsnes natural gas processing plant has started seasonal work, with Norway's supply accounting for about one - third of EU imports in 2024 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price is 72.54 euros/ton (up 2.73%), and the bid - cover ratio is 1.46 [2] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 72.74 euros/ton (up 0.18%), with a trading volume of 27,700 lots (up 0.49) [2] Auction Information | Date | EUA Auction Price (euros/ton) | CBAM Certificate Price (euros/ton) | EUA Auction Volume (10,000 tons) | Bid - cover Ratio | Auction Revenue (10,000 euros) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025 - 06 - 05 | 72.54 | 324.55 | 71.13 | 1.46 | 23,543 | | 2025 - 06 - 03 | 70.61 | 324.55 | 71.13 | 1.48 | 22,916 | [4] Futures and Spot Market Information | | Futures Settlement Price (euros/ton) | Futures Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Futures Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Spot Settlement Price (euros/ton) | Spot Trading Volume (lots) | Container Shipping Carbon Cost (US dollars/TEU) | Freight Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025 - 06 - 04 | 72.61 | 2.77 | 32.02 | 71.79 | 2,311 | 12.55 | 847 | | 2025 - 06 - 05 | 72.74 (up 0.18%) | 2.77 (up 0.49) | 32.02 (no change) | 71.67 (up 0.17%) | 2,311 (up 0.79%) | | | [5]

Core Viewpoint - Russia has formally requested consultations with the EU and WTO regarding the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), arguing that these measures are trade-restrictive and discriminatory under the guise of climate policy [1][5][9]. Group 1: CBAM and EU ETS Overview - The EU established the EU ETS in October 2003 to address "carbon leakage," which refers to the transfer of production to countries with less stringent emissions regulations [4]. - In May 2023, the EU passed regulations to establish CBAM, which aims to provide additional support measures for sectors at risk of carbon leakage [5][9]. Group 2: Russia's Concerns - Russia claims that the CBAM imposes complex and costly trade barriers on EU imports, creating significant uncertainty and unpredictability for operators [5][6]. - The application process for CBAM requires extensive documentation and proof of financial and operational capacity from importers, increasing compliance costs [6][8]. - Russia argues that the CBAM effectively acts as an additional "quasi-tariff" on imports from third countries, diverting financial resources from these countries' domestic climate change efforts [8][9]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The CBAM is expected to increase the trading costs of regulated goods significantly due to the administrative and compliance burdens imposed [6][9]. - The EU's CBAM currently applies to industries such as cement, steel, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen, which are identified as having high carbon leakage risks [9]. - The EU estimates that these sectors will account for over 50% of emissions covered by the EU ETS once fully implemented, aiming to encourage production countries to reduce carbon emissions [9].