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Core Viewpoint - BP p.l.c. is set to announce its Q3 earnings results on November 4th, with expectations of a decline in revenue and earnings per share compared to the previous year [2] Financial Performance - The consensus EPS estimate for Q3 is $0.77, reflecting a decrease from the previous year [2] - Revenue is projected at $43.62 billion, representing a year-over-year decline of 9.7% [2] Upstream Expectations - In October, BP indicated that it anticipates a decline in upstream performance for the third quarter [2]

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing all-time highs, described as an "unendable beast" that continues to rise despite concerns about buying at high levels [2][3] - There is a sentiment of waiting for an intermediate pullback before making significant trades [3] Company Analysis: Super Micro (SMCI) - Super Micro has seen a performance increase of over 40% in the last six months, but recently lowered its guidance for the first quarter, causing concern among investors [5] - The strategy involves buying implied volatility leading up to earnings on January 14 and selling before the earnings announcement [6] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish setup with the stock making higher highs and higher lows, currently in a cup and handle pattern [9][10] - Key resistance is at $62.50, with support around the 200-day moving average at approximately $42-$43 [12][13] Company Analysis: Astera Labs - Astera Labs is down about 0.5% following a downgrade from Barclays to equal weight, with a price target unchanged [14] - The focus is on a call spread to the upside going into earnings on January 14, targeting a breakout above the 50-day simple moving average [15] - The stock is currently trading around $169, approximately 12.5% below the $190 level where bullish options activity has been noted [21] Company Analysis: Reddit - Reddit's earnings are expected to be significant, with a call calendar strategy being employed due to the disparity in implied volatility [22][23] - Historical performance shows that Reddit's stock has risen in four out of six earnings reports since its IPO [24] - Technical analysis reveals an expanding megaphone pattern, with potential resistance around the $250 mark and support near the 200-day moving average [27][30]

Core Insights - Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is expected to report a revenue increase of approximately 3% year-over-year to $2.41 billion and earnings of about $1.61 per share, reflecting a significant rise from the previous year [1] - The company has a current market capitalization of $90 billion, with total revenue over the past twelve months at $13 billion, operating profits of $4.8 billion, and net income of $3.0 billion [2] - Recent growth has been driven by heightened futures and options activity, particularly due to volatility in energy markets and increased interest in rate products as market participants adjust to changing monetary policies [1][2] Earnings Performance Analysis - Historical data shows that there have been 20 earnings data points over the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day returns, resulting in a positive return rate of approximately 40% [6] - The median of the positive one-day returns is 2.6%, while the median of the negative returns is -1.0% [6] - The correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can provide insights for traders, particularly if a strong correlation exists between 1D and 5D returns [7] Peer Comparison - The performance of peer companies can influence the stock's reaction following earnings announcements, with price adjustments potentially occurring before the earnings release [8] - Historical data comparing ICE's post-earnings performance against peers indicates that market dynamics can affect stock reactions [8]

Core Insights - Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc reported better-than-expected earnings for Q3, with earnings of $1.85 per share, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $1.79 per share [1] - The company achieved quarterly sales of $6.351 billion, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $6.323 billion [1] Financial Performance - The company generated 11% revenue growth, or 4% on an underlying basis [2] - Adjusted operating income grew by 13%, and adjusted EPS increased by 11% [2] Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - Marsh & McLennan shares traded at $187.50 following the earnings announcement [2] - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst upgraded the stock from Underperform to Market Perform, lowering the price target from $209 to $191 [4] - Wells Fargo analyst maintained an Equal-Weight rating, reducing the price target from $222 to $212 [4]

Core Insights - American Express is expected to announce earnings on October 17, 2025, with projected revenues of $18 billion, an 8.5% year-over-year increase, and earnings of approximately $3.28 per share, reflecting a 6.5% rise compared to the previous year [1] - The anticipated growth is attributed to increased cardholder spending and a rise in net card fees, driven by greater penetration of premium products and strong retention rates [1] - The company's current market capitalization is $229 billion, with revenue over the past twelve months at $69 billion and net income around $10 billion [2] Earnings Performance Analysis - Historical data shows that over the past five years, there have been 20 earnings data points, with 7 positive and 13 negative one-day returns, resulting in a 35% occurrence of positive returns [6] - The percentage of positive one-day returns drops to 25% when examining the last three years, with a median positive return of 6.2% and a median negative return of -2.7% [6] - Analyzing the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns can provide insights for traders, particularly if a strong correlation exists between 1D and 5D returns [7]

Group 1 - Pure Storage (NYSE:PSTG) is expected to announce Q2 FY'26 earnings on August 27, 2025, with earnings anticipated at $0.39 per share and revenues projected to increase by 11% to $846 million, driven by strong demand for its data-storage solutions [2][3] - The company reported a total revenue of $3.3 billion over the past twelve months, achieving operational profitability with $96 million in operating profits and a net income of $128 million [3] - The total contract value for Storage-as-a-Service solutions surged 70% to $95 million in Q1, indicating significant customer acquisitions and smaller agreements [2] Group 2 - Historical data shows that Pure Storage has had 20 earnings data points over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day post-earnings returns, resulting in a 55% rate of positive returns [6] - The median of the 11 positive returns stands at 13%, while the median of the 9 negative returns is -10% [6] - Analyzing the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can help traders position themselves effectively, particularly if 1D and 5D returns show strong correlation [7]

Group 1 - The TJX Companies is expected to announce its fiscal second-quarter earnings on August 20, 2025, with analysts forecasting earnings of $1.01 per share and revenue of $14.16 billion, indicating a 4% year-over-year rise in earnings and a 5% increase in sales compared to the previous year [2][3] - The company has a market capitalization of $148 billion, with revenue of $57 billion over the past twelve months, operating profits of $6.3 billion, and net income of $4.8 billion [3] - Historical trends show that TJX stock has gained 65% of the time following earnings announcements, with a median one-day increase of 3.5% and a maximum observed gain of 7% [2][9] Group 2 - Positive one-day returns occurred approximately 65% of the time over the last five years, increasing to 73% when analyzing the last three years [9] - The median of the 13 positive returns is 3.5%, while the median of the 7 negative returns is -3.3% [9] - A strategy for traders is to analyze the correlation between short-term and intermediate-term returns post-earnings, which can help in making informed trading decisions [10]

Group 1 - Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ:QCOM) is set to announce its fiscal third-quarter earnings results on July 30, with analysts expecting earnings of $2.71, reflecting a 16.3% year-over-year increase, and revenue of $10.34 billion, a 10.1% rise [1] - The post-earnings history for Qualcomm has been poor, with the stock declining in all four next-day sessions over the past year, including an 8.9% drop in May [2] - Options markets are anticipating a 9% price swing for Qualcomm's stock following the earnings announcement, which is higher than the 6.3% average move over the last two years [2] Group 2 - Qualcomm's stock has faced resistance at the $162 level since early June, while support is noted at the $153 level and the 50-day moving average [3] - Year-to-date, Qualcomm's equity has increased by 5.7% [3] - There has been a notable increase in call options activity for Qualcomm over the past 10 weeks, with a 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.26, ranking higher than 90% of readings from the past year [5]

Group 1 - Dollar General is expected to report fiscal first-quarter earnings on June 3, 2025, with forecasts of $1.49 per share and revenue of $10.29 billion, indicating a 10% decline in earnings year-over-year and a 4% increase in sales compared to last year's figures [1] - The company has a market capitalization of $21 billion, with revenue over the past twelve months at $41 billion, operating profits of $1.7 billion, and a net income of $1.1 billion [2] - Dollar General's fourth-quarter earnings per share fell 53% year-over-year, contributing to a 32% overall drop for the year 2024, largely due to surplus inventory [2] Group 2 - The company sources approximately 96% of its inventory domestically, limiting exposure to tariff-related cost increases [2] - For the current fiscal year ending in January, Dollar General anticipates net sales growth between 3.4% and 4.4%, while same-store sales are expected to rise by only 1.2% to 2.2% [2] - Historical data shows that Dollar General stock has decreased 74% of the time following earnings announcements, with a median one-day drop of 4.2% [1][4] Group 3 - Over the past five years, Dollar General has recorded 19 earnings data points, with positive one-day returns observed only 26% of the time, dropping to 18% in the last three years [4] - The median of the five positive returns was 4.4%, while the median of the 14 negative returns was -4.2% [4] - The performance of peers can influence Dollar General's post-earnings stock reaction, with historical data indicating that pricing may begin before earnings announcements [5]