Core Insights - Estée Lauder Companies is set to report earnings on August 20, 2025, with a consensus expectation of earnings per share at $0.09 and sales of $3.4 billion, a decline from $0.64 per share and $3.87 billion in the same quarter last year [4] Historical Stock Performance - Over the past five years, Estée Lauder's stock has shown a pattern of negative one-day returns post-earnings, with 70% of instances resulting in a decline, a median drop of -7.3%, and the largest single-day drop being -20.9% [3][7] - In the last five years, there have been 20 recorded earnings data points, with only 6 positive one-day returns, indicating a 30% occurrence rate of positive returns, which drops to 9.1% in the last three years [7] Financial Performance - The company has a market capitalization of $33 billion and generated $15 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, with $1.3 billion in operating profits, but reported a net loss of $871 million during the same period [5] Trading Strategies - Traders may consider pre-earnings positioning based on historical odds and evaluate immediate post-earnings reactions to inform medium-term trading decisions [6][8] - A lower-risk approach involves assessing the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns around earnings, allowing traders to structure trades based on the strongest correlations observed [8]

Company Overview - Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) is set to announce its Q3 FY'25 earnings on August 14, 2025, with expected earnings of approximately $2.36 per share, up from $2.12 in the same quarter last year, and revenues anticipated to rise by around 6% to $7.2 billion [2] - The company currently has a market capitalization of $144 billion, with revenue over the past twelve months at $28 billion, operating profits of $8.3 billion, and a net income of $6.8 billion [4] Industry Trends - The surge in AI is driving increased demand for semiconductors, necessitating greater computational power, enhanced memory capacity, and more complex chips [3] - Applied Materials' advanced tools are crucial for manufacturing next-generation AI chips, including high-bandwidth memory (HBM), gate-all-around (GAA) transistors, and backside power delivery (BPD) [3] - However, U.S. government restrictions on the sale of advanced chip-manufacturing equipment to Chinese firms may temper growth, as evidenced by a 37% year-over-year decline in revenue from China in Q2 [3] Earnings Performance Insights - Historical data shows that Applied Materials has recorded 19 earnings data points over the past five years, with 7 positive and 12 negative one-day post-earnings returns, resulting in a positive return rate of approximately 37% [6] - The median of the 7 positive returns is 3.9%, while the median of the 12 negative returns is -3.6% [6] - Correlation analysis indicates that understanding the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can inform trading strategies [7]