Accessibility StatementSkip Navigation WASHINGTON, Nov. 21, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Fannie Mae's (OTCQB: FNMA)Â monthly economic and housing outlook, published by the Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group, is now available. The forecast files, which contain the ESR Group's expectations for mortgage rates, single-family and multifamily originations, and real GDP growth, among other data points, can be found here. Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic a ...

Core Insights - The 62nd Annual ASU/PNC Bank Economic Forecast Luncheon will address U.S. recession risks, Arizona's growth, and global uncertainties as inflation rises and hiring slows [1][2] - The event aims to provide actionable insights for business leaders and policymakers to navigate economic challenges in 2026 and beyond [5] Event Details - The luncheon is scheduled for November 12, 2025, from 11:15 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. at the Renaissance Phoenix Downtown Hotel [4] - Ticket prices are set at $185 per person or $1,450 for a table of 10 for in-person attendance, and $75 per person or $700 for a group of 10 for virtual attendance [4] Speakers and Expertise - Keynote address by Kartik Athreya, Director of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, focusing on macroeconomic insights [7] - Augustine Faucher, Chief Economist at PNC Financial Services Group, will provide the U.S. economic outlook [7] - Dennis Hoffman, Director of the Office of the University Economist at Arizona State University, will present the outlook for Arizona and metro economies [7]

GDP Growth Forecasts - Goldman Sachs raised China's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.8% from 4.5% [1] - Barclays increased its forecast to 4.8% from 4.5% [1] - Standard Chartered revised its projection upward to 4.9% from 4.8% [1]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing an inflection point with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for the first time this month due to a weakening labor market, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target [1][3] - Increased uncertainty is attributed to changes in trade policy, tariffs, and immigration policy under the Trump administration, affecting economic growth, inflation, and unemployment forecasts [1] Economic Growth Projections - The Federal Reserve projects real GDP growth of 2.4% in 2024, with a slowdown expected this year before a rebound, showing an annualized growth rate of 1.6% in the first half of 2025 [5] - The Fed anticipates GDP growth of 1.6% in Q4 of 2025, rising to 1.8% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, before returning to 1.8% in 2028 [5] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects GDP growth of 1.4% for 2025, increasing to 2.2% in 2026, and returning to 1.8% in 2027 and 2028 [6] - The Trump administration's Office of Management and Budget (OMB) estimates GDP growth of 1.8% in 2025, rising to 3.2% in 2026 and 3.1% in the following two years [6] Inflation Projections - The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, recorded a PCE inflation rate of 2.7% in August [7] - The Fed projects PCE inflation to rise to 3% year-over-year in Q4 of 2025, then decline to 2.6% in 2026, 2.1% in 2027, and return to the 2% target in 2028 [8] - CBO forecasts PCE inflation to reach 3.1% in Q4 of 2025, declining to 2.4% in 2026, and returning to 2% in 2027 and 2028 [8] - The OMB estimates PCE inflation at 2.4% by the end of this year, declining to 2% in 2026 and remaining there through 2028 [9] Consumer Price Index (CPI) Projections - CBO projects CPI inflation to hit 2.8% year-over-year in 2025, declining to 2.7% in 2026, and further to 2.2% in 2027 and 2028 [10] - OMB estimates CPI inflation at 2.5% this year, declining to 2.2% in 2026, then slightly rising to 2.3% in 2027, and returning to 2.2% in 2028 [10] Unemployment Rate Projections - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, with expectations for the Bureau of Labor Statistics to release the September jobs report soon [11] - The Fed projects the unemployment rate to rise to 4.5% in Q4 of this year, gradually declining to 4.4% in 2026, 4.3% in 2027, and 4.2% in 2028 [12] - CBO sees the unemployment rate at 4.5% in Q4 of 2025, declining to 4.2% in 2026, then rising back to 4.4% in 2027 and 2028 [12] - The OMB projects the unemployment rate to fall to 4.1% this year, declining to 3.9% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027 and 2028 [13]