China’s economy stumbled into the new year, bolstering the case for Beijing to ramp up policy support in coming weeks as strong exports failed to offset weak domestic demand. Official purchasing managers’ indexes released over the weekend suggested an unexpected and broad slowdown in January, with activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracting at the worst pace since late 2022. Most Read from Bloomberg While a private gauge published Monday showed a more encouraging sign for export-oriented manuf ...

Core Viewpoint - CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) is recognized for its stable payout history since 2002, currently offering a trailing distribution yield of 4.6%, which is appealing amid macroeconomic uncertainties [1] Group 1: Dividend Drivers - CICT has a strong portfolio of prime office properties and popular shopping malls in Singapore, with an average portfolio occupancy rate of 97.2% as of September 30, 2025 [2] - The REIT benefits from a diverse range of blue-chip tenants, including Temasek Holdings, UNIQLO, and NTUC, reducing the likelihood of missed rent payments [2] - Steady rental demand has led to positive rental reversions year-to-date across both retail and office assets, contributing to stable cash flows and consistent dividends [3] Group 2: Financial Health - CICT maintains a conservative capital profile with an aggregate leverage ratio of 39.2% and an interest coverage ratio (ICR) of 3.5 times, indicating a decent ability to service interest payments [4] - Debt maturity is well-distributed, with the majority of borrowings due between 2027 and 2030, and 20% of debt maturing in 2027, which is the highest amount due in a single year [4] Group 3: Performance and Payout History - From 2020 to 2024, CICT's distribution per unit (DPU) increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.78%, rising from S$0.0869 to S$0.1088, demonstrating consistent growth even during challenging economic periods [5] Group 4: Future Considerations - Investors should monitor key metrics such as occupancy rates and rental reversions, with a target occupancy rate of over 90% and positive rent reversions indicating healthy property performance [9] - Attention should also be given to the progress in securing new leases and the retention rate of existing leases, as changes in these areas could impact future operating performance [10] - Macroeconomic factors, including consumer spending and office demand, will also play a crucial role in CICT's business outlook [11]

Core Insights - JPMorgan's shares reached an all-time high of $327.78, driven by optimism regarding the easing rate cycle, stronger U.S. GDP growth, and potential entry into the crypto trading business [1][10] Performance Comparison - Over the past six months, JPMorgan shares have increased by 14.8%, while the S&P Index gained 15.7%. In comparison, Bank of America and Citigroup saw increases of 19.5% and 44.5%, respectively [2] Valuation Metrics - JPMorgan's stock trades at a price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 3.27X, above the industry average of 3.20X. Bank of America and Citigroup have P/TB ratios of 2.04X and 1.30X, respectively [5] - The Value Score of F indicates that JPMorgan's stock is not considered cheap, suggesting a stretched valuation [5] Business Model Resilience - JPMorgan operates across multiple segments, including consumer banking, commercial banking, investment banking, and wealth management, providing diverse revenue streams that enhance its resilience [11] - The bank benefits from a stable deposit base, with a loans-to-deposit ratio of 56% as of September 30, 2025, allowing for low-cost funding [12] - Approximately 45% of total net revenues come from fee-based income, which enhances stability and reduces reliance on interest-rate dynamics [13] Growth Strategy - JPMorgan is expanding its branch network, opening nearly 150 branches in 2024 and planning to add 500 more by 2027 to strengthen its competitive edge [14] - The bank has consistently delivered industry-leading returns through disciplined risk management and a focus on high-quality lending [15] Profitability Expectations - Despite expected pressure on net interest income (NII) due to declining rates, JPMorgan anticipates NII to be nearly $92.2 billion in 2025 and $95 billion in 2026 [16] - Non-interest income streams from trading, investment banking, payments, and wealth management provide additional earnings stability [17] Leadership and Execution - Under Jamie Dimon's leadership, JPMorgan has emphasized conservatism and capital strength, enabling it to outperform competitors during crises [18] - The bank's strong balance sheet includes total debt of $496.6 billion and cash and deposits of $303.4 billion as of September 30, 2025 [19] Shareholder Returns - JPMorgan has increased its quarterly dividend by 7% to $1.50 per share and authorized a new share repurchase program worth $50 billion [20] - The bank has raised dividends six times in the last five years, with an annualized growth rate of 8.94% [21] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPMorgan's earnings in 2025 is $20.32, with a slight decline to $21.03 for 2026, indicating elevated non-interest expense expectations [25] - The consensus for revenue growth suggests increases of 2.8% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026 [25] Investment Consideration - Despite its premium valuation, JPMorgan's size, diversification, and track record make it a reasonable core holding for a multi-year horizon [29]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 has experienced a strong year to date, continuing a rally that has benefited investors despite challenges such as inflation, interest rate hikes, and geopolitical uncertainty [1] Group 1 - The S&P 500's performance reflects resilience in the face of economic challenges [1] - Investors have been rewarded for maintaining their positions during a tumultuous market environment [1] - The ongoing rally indicates a positive sentiment in the market, suggesting potential for further growth [1]

Market Trends & Dynamics - Expectation of increased dispersion in MAG7 stocks as the AI trade shifts focus [1] - Broadening market participation is likely to continue, albeit unevenly [1] - Market breadth, measured by the percentage of S&P constituents outperforming the index, increased from 17% over the past 6 months to 61% over the past month [2] - Small caps show the best improvement in breadth relative to 50-day and 200-day moving averages among the three major indexes (Russell 2000, S&P, and NASDAQ) [3] - The economy is showing signs of slowing, a trend expected to persist into 2026 [5] Earnings & Multiples - Earnings have been driving market performance since August, offsetting flat multiple expansion [6] - Earnings trajectory needs to remain strong for another robust year in 2026 [6] Small Cap Analysis - Unprofitable stocks within the Russell 2000, representing approximately 40% of the index, have increased by 62% since April 8th, in contrast to the profitable stocks which are up 29% [8] - Recently, profitable stocks within small caps are showing more acceleration [9] - Recommendation to reduce exposure to unprofitable, lower-quality segments within small caps and increase exposure to higher-quality, profitable segments [9]

A key gauge of Chinese shares is on course for a technical correction after a tech-led rally lost steam amid concerns about a slowing economy and a lack of strong stimulus measures https://t.co/rPkbp86c6Y ...

Turkey’s economy slowed more than expected in the third quarter, providing the central bank with scope to continue lowering rates https://t.co/JCFBefAw7p ...

Whatever happens with trade, China’s economy will slow—but not stumble—in 2026. We explain why, in The World Ahead https://t.co/uGSnOpLov3 ...

China’s factory activity improved but remained in contraction in November, extending its streak of declines to a record as the country’s economic slowdown deepens https://t.co/KcmFyF6yzz ...

China’s industrial enterprises saw their earnings drop for the first time in three months, adding to evidence that the world’s second-largest economy is losing steam https://t.co/L0qLFn5l3l ...