New vehicle sales in the Philippines declined by 10% to 33,696 units in January 2026 from 37,504 units in the same month last year, according to members’ wholesale data released jointly by the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines Inc (CAMPI) and the Truck Manufacturers Association (TMA). The market has begun to slow in the last few months, following three years of strong growth. January’s market decline followed a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the country in the fourth quarter of ...

Trade escalation can contribute to a slowdown in economic growth and weaken silver demand, but silver's a "dual-natured metal†that benefits from both investment and industrial uses. That's a key reas... ...

Core Viewpoint - The weakening economy is leading to a clearer decision for the central bank regarding interest rates in December [1] Economic Context - Economic indicators suggest a slowdown, prompting the central bank to reassess its monetary policy [1] - The central bank's focus is shifting towards stabilizing the economy amid signs of weakening growth [1] Interest Rate Implications - The anticipated interest rate decision in December is expected to reflect the current economic conditions [1] - Analysts predict that the central bank may opt for a more cautious approach in light of the economic slowdown [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, while China's central bank is likely to resist immediate policy easing due to concerns about a weak economy and a hot stock market [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Policymakers in China are under pressure to prevent a sharp economic slowdown that could threaten jobs and social stability, while also avoiding past mistakes that led to a market crash [2]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) may wait for clearer economic signals before adjusting its policy, despite potential room for easing following a Fed rate cut [2][3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC has already cut its key policy rate by 10 basis points and reduced banks' reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points as part of broader stimulus measures [5]. - Analysts suggest that the PBOC may avoid immediate rate cuts if the stock market rally continues, to prevent inflating a bubble, but a modest 10-basis-point cut could occur if markets correct [4][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current stock market rally in China is primarily driven by institutional investors, with retail investors beginning to participate, while households hold a record 160 trillion yuan ($22.45 trillion) in savings [6].

Market Overview - The three major U.S. indexes, Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average, experienced significant declines of 9.89%, 9.58%, and 8.78% respectively last week due to President Trump's reciprocal tariff policies implemented on April 2, 2025, raising fears of a near-term recession [1] - Analysts predict a slowdown in economic growth and a rise in short-term inflation, with the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation marking a monthly gain of 0.4% in February 2025, the largest since January 2024 [2] Economic Indicators - The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) reported that manufacturing PMI contracted to 49% and services PMI to 50.8% in March, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activities [3] - Job openings fell by 194,000 to 7.568 million in February, marking the lowest level since September 2024, with the employment index declining to 46.2% in March from 53.9% in February [3] Investment Performance - PhenixFIN Corporation (PFX) shares gained 6.2% since being upgraded to Zacks Rank 1 on February 12, while United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS) returned 5.2% since its upgrade on February 13, both outperforming the S&P 500's significant declines [4][5] - A hypothetical portfolio of Zacks Rank 1 stocks returned -3.48% in January 2025, compared to -0.60% for the S&P 500, but had a strong performance in 2024 with a return of +22.3% [5][6] Zacks Recommendations - EZCORP, Inc. (EZPW) and Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR) saw share increases of 13.4% and 5% respectively since their Zacks Recommendation upgrades to Outperform [8] - The Zacks Focus List portfolio, which includes HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) and Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR), returned +0.87% this year through February 2025, outperforming the S&P 500's -14.2% decline over the same period [11][12] Long-term Performance - The Zacks Top 10 portfolio has produced a cumulative return of +1948.35% since 2012, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +469.98% return in the same timeframe [24]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **US economic outlook** and the impact of recent **tariff announcements** on various sectors, particularly focusing on employment and inflation metrics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariff Implementation and Economic Impact** - The Trump administration briefly implemented 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, which were later narrowed in scope, delaying full implementation until April 2 [2][19] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to weigh on economic growth, with potential GDP growth reduction estimated at 0.25-0.50 percentage points if full tariffs are enacted [20][26] 2. **Employment Data Analysis** - February's nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000, indicating resilience in job demand despite a revision down of January's figures [3][4] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.1%, with a notable rise in the underemployment rate (U6) to 8.0%, the highest since late 2021 [6][7] 3. **Mixed Economic Indicators** - Various economic indicators present a mixed picture, with initial jobless claims normalizing and ISM manufacturing and services indices remaining resilient [12][13] - Light vehicle sales increased from 15.6 million to 16.0 million units, suggesting a potential boost to household spending [14] 4. **Concerns Over Consumer Spending** - There are indications of a potential downshift in consumer spending due to tariff policy uncertainty and deceleration in labor payroll income [15][28] - Aggregate payroll income growth slowed to 2.9% in February, down from 5.6% in the previous three-month period, raising concerns about consumer purchasing power [8][23] 5. **Layoff Announcements and Labor Market Dynamics** - A significant increase in layoff announcements was noted, with the Challenger indicator rising from about 50,000 to 172,000 in February, the largest one-month increase since April 2020 [9][12] - The potential for up to 500,000 job cuts from federal workforce downsizing due to DOGE initiatives was highlighted, although these cuts may not trigger macroeconomic distress [24][25] 6. **Federal Reserve's Stance** - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) shows no immediate signs of changing course, with officials emphasizing the need for greater clarity before making policy adjustments [27] - The FOMC is currently more focused on upside inflation risks than market expectations, indicating a cautious approach to potential rate cuts [27] Other Important Insights - The upcoming inflation data is anticipated to provide further clarity on consumer behavior and economic conditions, with forecasts suggesting a 0.3% increase in headline CPI [40] - The administration's tariff strategies and their implications for various sectors, including agriculture and energy, remain uncertain, with further announcements expected [19][21] - The overall economic outlook remains cautious, with potential risks stemming from policy uncertainty and external economic pressures [26][22]