We just got the minutes of the Fed's March meeting just a few moments ago. Now remember these are about 3 weeks old at this point, but what the minutes reflected was a Fed that was keeping its rates steady for now while noting that the outlook was very uncertain and that war in the Middle East was impacting both sides of the Fed's dual mandate. So on rate policy, all but one member, that was Steven Myron, voted to keep rates unchanged, participants emphasized the importance of being nimble in their policy p ...

Group 1 - The outlook for the U.S. economy among corporate finance chiefs improved in early 2026, with expectations for increased employment and solid revenue growth, despite ongoing pressures to raise prices [1][5] - Tariffs and trade policy were identified as the top concern for 473 CFOs surveyed, although the percentage citing these concerns decreased to just over 20% from nearly 40% in mid-2025 [2][3] - Labor quality and availability were cited as concerns by 17% of respondents, while 15% were focused on the outlook for sales [3] Group 2 - The overall sentiment in the survey was positive, conducted before the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, which subsequently pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel [4] - Business expectations for demand and hiring remained strong, with firms anticipating a 5% increase in revenue and a 1.6% boost in employment, alongside expected price and unit cost increases of 3% [5] - The survey was conducted from February 17 to March 5, with no significant differences in attitudes noted before or after the U.S. airstrikes on February 28 [6]

The crypto market is still cooking right now. We are still hovering around $2 and a half trillion dollar. And while we are waiting for the next big move here, we do have a very big day ahead of us because yes, we do have FOMC day.Now, I have been talking about this. I have been addressing it as well. Um, it's definitely going to be an important one to listen into.Not for the actual rate cut decision because I don't think that we're going to get a rate cut. I think that we get a pause, but I do believe that ...

Economic Overview - The jobs report indicates a loss of 92,000 jobs in February, increasing pressure on the Trump administration to reconsider military and homeland security policies that affect the economic outlook [3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in February, reversing a previous decline, although it remains low historically [4] - Wages increased by 3.8% year-over-year, helping to recover workers' purchasing power lost due to high inflation [4] Market Reactions - Rising gas prices, which increased nearly 23 cents in just a week, are causing concern among consumers and impacting market sentiment [7] - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.5% as investors reacted to the potential for higher energy prices to drive inflation [8] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - There is pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, as the current economic conditions may not support a continuation of high rates [9][13] - Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh is expected to advocate for rate cuts, influenced by productivity gains despite the oil price shock [13] Political Implications - The administration's current stance on military engagement in Iran may become difficult to maintain as economic data raises questions about the costs involved [11] - A potential shift in immigration policy could help address labor market issues, as the administration considers a more focused approach on apprehending dangerous criminals [12]

Malaysia’s second finance minister says policymakers will hold off on raising the country’s 2026 growth forecast as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict clouds the country’s economic outlook https://t.co/b5bD3zuAsv ...

Economic Outlook - The economic outlook is perceived positively, with expectations of real GDP growth between 2.50% to 2.75% for 2026, and inflation trending down towards the lower bound of the US Fed's target range [2] - Nominal wages are projected to grow by over 3% this year, indicating potential positive real wage growth if inflation remains stable [2] - Corporate profit outlook is also considered favorable [2] Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Higher expected tax refunds for consumers due to the Build Back Better bill are seen as a positive economic tailwind [3] - A rotation in investor focus is noted, with traditional companies expected to benefit more than growth companies, as investors reassess growth estimates for tech stocks [4] Stock Analysis Methodology - Stocks listed on the NYSE with a market capitalization of at least $2 billion, a median projected upside of at least 25%, and a forward P/E ratio between 3x and 15x were screened [6] - The final selection included stocks with at least 15 hedge fund holders, ranked by the highest median projected upside [6][7] Company-Specific Insights - Sonic Automotive Inc. reported adjusted EPS of $1.52, slightly above consensus estimates, despite a revenue miss of $3.87 billion compared to the expected $3.94 billion [10] - Concerns were raised by Sonic's management regarding rising vehicle prices potentially dampening consumer demand in 2026 [11] - Lincoln National Corporation received an upgrade to Overweight from Wells Fargo, with a target price increase of 17.1% to $48, driven by a 39% YoY growth in free cash flows [13][14] - The life insurance segment contributed significantly to Lincoln National's cash flow growth, with improved operating profit margins [14] - With improved cash flow, Lincoln National is expected to meet its 2026 capital buffer targets ahead of schedule and may begin stock buybacks as early as 2026 [15]

Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong said the city-state will revise its economic outlook, if needed, due to the crisis in the Middle East which could push up global energy prices https://t.co/LlKxQDvdgo ...

We're speaking with the Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic, who is retiring at the end of this month. So this is sort of your HR exit interview. Mike, it's always good to see you.I want to ask you, as you travel around your district for the past year, what's the mood like among companies and consumers. We've seen the surveys show that people are getting very, very pessimistic. - Well, I'd say it runs in two ways.So, first of all, what has been true throughout the last year is a tremendous amount of resili ...

Core Insights - Mortgage rates are currently stable, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.09%, the lowest in three years, but have slightly increased by 10 basis points recently [3][11] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, but mortgage rates are influenced by a variety of factors beyond the Fed's decisions [4][11] - The bond market, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield, is the primary driver of 30-year mortgage rates, making them less predictable around Fed meetings [8][10] Mortgage Rate Trends - The average 30-year mortgage rate has seen fluctuations, with a notable increase of almost 1.25 percentage points following a Fed rate cut in late 2024, illustrating the complex relationship between Fed actions and mortgage rates [9][10] - Fannie Mae projects that 30-year mortgage rates will remain relatively stable, with a slight decrease from 6.1% to 6.0% expected through 2026 [13] Homebuyer Guidance - Timing the mortgage market is challenging, as rates can change for reasons unrelated to Fed decisions; buyers are advised to act when financially ready rather than waiting for a specific rate drop [12][15] - Existing homeowners with high mortgage rates (7% or 8%) may consider refinancing, but should evaluate the costs against potential savings to determine if it is worthwhile [14]

Market Expectations - Investors anticipate no change in interest rates during the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with a 97% probability assigned to this outcome by CME FedWatch [1] - The current rate-cutting cycle began in September 2024, and political pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell has intensified, particularly from President Trump [4] Economic Outlook - The US economy appears stable, with inflation under control and solid GDP growth, as indicated by recent federal data releases [6] - The S&P Composite PMI for January increased slightly to 52.8 from 52.7, while the University of Michigan index was revised up to 56.4 from 54.0 [8] Market Leadership and Earnings - Market leadership is broadening beyond mega-cap tech, with energy, industrials, and materials sectors performing well [5] - The S&P 500 is projected to grow earnings by 15% this year, currently priced around 22 times next year's earnings, indicating that fundamentals are a key driver for stock performance [10] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Half of the "Magnificent Seven" companies, including Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Tesla, are set to report earnings this week, which could significantly influence market movements [9] Policy and Political Landscape - There is speculation that Trump may appoint a new Fed chair, which could introduce volatility in the stock market as adjustments are made midyear [11] - Traders are pricing in a 59.4% chance of a rate cut in June, which may reinforce a pause in the upcoming Fed meetings [11] Market Volatility - Despite expectations for the Fed to hold rates steady, volatility is common around press conferences, with investors closely monitoring Powell's statements [12]