Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday as caution prevailed ahead of the U.S. consumer price inflation report that could provide more clarity on the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory.As the peak holiday shopping season approaches, most U.S. consumers have a downbeat outlook on the economy, according to an annual Deloitte survey published on Wednesday.Most consumers surveyed — 57% — said they expect the economy to weaken in the year ahead, the consulting firm found in a poll of roughly 4,000 responden ...

Get ahead of the market by subscribing to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Week Ahead, a preview of key events scheduled for the coming week. The newsletter keeps you informed of the biggest stories set to make headlines, including upcoming IPOs, investor days, earnings reports, and conference presentations. Stock index futures edged higher on Friday, following a pause in Wall Street's rally as concerns grew over the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. On Thursday, major indexes ended lower as momentum faded. The ...

Americans have soured on the prospect of finding new jobs, a new survey shows. And they're still frustrated by persistent inflation, giving them little confidence that the economy will improve soon. ...

Meanwhile, as the government shutdown enters day two, uh, OM Director Russell Vote telling House Republicans the Trump administration will start firing federal employees in the next one to two days. Meanwhile, this is what the Treasury Secretary told the gang on SC squawk this morning about the state negotiations. We were left with a mess.It was the largest deficit uh when we weren't in a recession, weren't at war, and we are fixing the deficit. And um you know there could be a a discussion but this isn't t ...

Core Insights - The job market remains stagnant, with hiring in August at 5.1 million and a hiring rate of 3.2%, showing little change from July [3] - Unemployment increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3% in August, indicating a worsening situation for job seekers [3] - Consumer spending rose by 0.4% in August, maintaining the same pace as July, despite rising concerns about inflation and job availability [5] - The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has raised its forecast for third quarter economic growth to 3.9% from 3.3% [5] - Consumer confidence fell to a five-month low in September, driven by anxiety over inflation and the job market [7] Economic Indicators - The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, remained at a 2.9% annual rate [5] - The share of consumers reporting that jobs are plentiful decreased from 30.2% to 26.9%, while those finding jobs hard to get remained at 19.1% [7] - The assessment of business conditions by consumers has become less positive, with expectations for improvement declining [7] Consumer Sentiment - Households express feelings of being "stuck" in the economy, with rising concerns about inflation and job availability potentially impacting discretionary spending [4] - Despite concerns, households have not yet reduced their spending [4] - The ongoing assessment of job availability has reached a multiyear low, reflecting a significant decline in consumer sentiment regarding the job market [7]

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 1.8% in 2023, an increase from the previous forecast of 1.6%, and is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2024 [1] - The global economy is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2023, up from 2.9% previously forecasted, with a stable growth forecast of 2.9% for 2024 [1] Federal Reserve Insights - U.S. rate futures indicate an 89.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting [2] - Fed officials express differing views on interest rate cuts, with some advocating for aggressive cuts to protect the labor market while others caution against further reductions due to inflation concerns [3] Stock Market Performance - Wall Street's main indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 reaching new record highs [4] - Nvidia announced plans to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, leading to a more than 3% increase in its stock [4] - Teradyne's stock surged over 12% after a price target upgrade, while Applied Materials rose over 5% following an upgrade from Morgan Stanley [4] Economic Data and Corporate Earnings - Investors are focused on upcoming speeches from Fed officials and preliminary U.S. purchasing managers' surveys, with expectations for the September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI at 52.2 and Services PMI at 54.0 [6] - The U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is anticipated to improve to -5 in September from -7 [7] - Micron Technology and AutoZone are set to release quarterly results today [7] European Market Developments - The Euro Stoxx 50 Index rose by 0.64% as positive PMI data supported market sentiment [8] - Eurozone's Composite PMI for September was reported at 51.2, exceeding expectations, while Manufacturing PMI was weaker at 49.5 [10] China Market Updates - China's Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly lower, with bank stocks providing some support against profit-taking in the tech sector [12] - The People's Bank of China plans to maintain liquidity and support economic recovery, while a new financing instrument is expected to direct 500 billion yuan ($70.3 billion) to stimulate investment [12]

Core Insights - Small business owners are entering the last quarter of 2025 with decreased confidence in profit growth expectations, with only 49% expecting an increase compared to 55% in 2024, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in demand, inflation, policy, and costs [2][3] Business Confidence - The percentage of business owners expecting no change in profits has risen from 27% to 35%, indicating growing concerns about growth [3] - There is a slight decrease in the expectation of profit shortfalls at year-end, with 16% anticipating shortfalls compared to 18% last year [3] Investment Spending - Business investment spending remains flat across key areas, including customer acquisition, product and service development, equipment/technology, hiring and retaining, and risk management [4] - A notable 3% increase in hiring and retraining employees has been reported [5] Hiring Plans - The intention to hire remains stable, but the number of employees businesses plan to hire has increased, with 13% of business owners planning to hire 10 or more new workers, and 12% planning to hire six to ten new employees, both up 3% from last year [6] - The percentage of employers planning to hire just one to five new employees has decreased by 5% [7] - A significant 26% of respondents indicated they do not need to hire, and 18% cannot afford to, consistent with 2024 figures [8] Hiring Environment - The difficulty in hiring has decreased, with only 8% of owners stating they are not hiring due to challenges in finding employees, down from 15% last year [9]

Core Insights - Major US bankers expressed optimism about consumer behavior and their earnings, despite uncertainties regarding the future of the US economy [1][4] - A significant revision in job growth data revealed nearly one million fewer jobs added than previously reported, raising concerns about economic strength [2][3] Company Insights - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon acknowledged the economy is weakening, highlighting the importance of the recent payroll revision [3] - Despite Dimon's concerns, JPMorgan's co-head of commercial and investment banking, Doug Petno, reported strong market activity and anticipated a rise in revenue from investment banking and trading in Q3 [5] - Bank of America CFO Alastair Borthwick also projected a positive outlook for investment banking in the upcoming quarter [6] Industry Trends - Wall Street banks have experienced a rally this year, driven by high asset prices and increased corporate activity in debt issuance and mergers [7] - Shares of major banks, including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs, have risen between 15% and 38% this year, outperforming major indexes [8]

Core Viewpoint - Small-cap U.S. stocks may be experiencing a resurgence after a prolonged period of underperformance, with recent data indicating potential positive trends for small-cap investors [1] Performance Summary - The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has increased by 6.3% over the past month, compared to a 2% gain in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) [2] - Year-to-date, SPY is up approximately 10%, while IWM has advanced about 5.7% [2] - Early-year weakness in small caps was largely attributed to President Trump's tariff announcements, which adversely affected smaller companies [2] Market Dynamics - Bank of America's client flow data indicates near-record demand for small-cap stocks, with clients purchasing $1.5 billion worth of small and micro-cap stocks and ETFs in the past week [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in September, with a 97.6% probability of a 25-basis point cut, which could benefit small-cap stocks and ETFs [4] Earnings Analysis - For the small-cap S&P 600 index, Q2 earnings are up 8.6% year-over-year, with revenues increasing by 3.4% [5] - 61.1% of small-cap companies beat EPS estimates, and 72.4% exceeded revenue estimates [5] - In comparison, S&P 500 companies reported a 12.4% increase in earnings and 6.0% higher revenues, with 79.9% beating EPS estimates [6] Valuation Insights - The Russell 2000 is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 32.75, up from 27.79 a year ago, indicating that small caps are not cheap and may be overvalued [8][9] - The Nasdaq 100 Index has a P/E ratio of 32.97, while the S&P 500 Index is at 25.15, reflecting a relative valuation perspective [9] Economic Context - U.S. GDP grew by 3.3% in Q2 2025, rebounding from a 0.5% decline in Q1, driven by stronger consumer spending and private investment [10] - Job openings fell to 7.181 million in July, below expectations, which may signal potential weakness in the labor market [11] Investment Opportunities - Value and blend small-cap ETFs have outperformed growth ETFs over the past month, with notable performers including: - Invesco S&P SmallCap 600 Pure Value ETF (RZV) – Up 11.0% - Invesco S&P SmallCap Value with Momentum ETF (XSVM) – Up 9.9% - iShares US Small Cap Value Factor ETF (SVAL) – Up 9.1% [12]

The seasonality aspect is something we talk about post Labor Day a lot because since the 1950s it has been depending on time frame either the worst or one of the worst. If you juxtapose that with all of the market catalyst that we are anticipating for the coming few weeks. Do we think this is a weaker setup that deserves paying more attention to this time around.Uh I think most likely yes. I mean you know why do we have that seasonality. People people go away they go on vacation.They take a few weeks and th ...