After a long period of underperformance, small-cap U.S. stocks may be staging a comeback. While it's too early to say for sure whether this is the start of a sustained rally or just an occasional rise, recent data shows encouraging signs for small-cap investors.Small-cap exchange-traded fund iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has gained 6.3% over the past month (as of Sept. 3, 2025) versus about 2% gains in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) . However, IWM still lags SPY when the year-to-date performance is considere ...

The seasonality aspect is something we talk about post Labor Day a lot because since the 1950s it has been depending on time frame either the worst or one of the worst. If you juxtapose that with all of the market catalyst that we are anticipating for the coming few weeks. Do we think this is a weaker setup that deserves paying more attention to this time around.Uh I think most likely yes. I mean you know why do we have that seasonality. People people go away they go on vacation.They take a few weeks and th ...

Former Fed Governor Randy Crosner is with us this morning here at Post9 talking about the economic outlook, of course, PCE and some other numbers on tap later on this week. Randy, great to have you in. Welcome.Great to be here. Uh we we went through a lot of key lines on the Powell speech on Friday, downside risk to the labor market, reasonable base case that tariffs are a one-off of sorts. See, which was the most important to you.Yeah, I think remember he'd been saying wait and see. Well, they've waited an ...

Summary of Deutsche Bank Group Research on Japan Economic Perspectives Industry/Company Involved - **Industry**: Japanese Economy - **Company**: Deutsche Bank Group Key Points and Arguments Economic Growth Forecasts - The growth forecast for fiscal 2025 has been revised upward from 0.6% to 1.0% based on 2Q 2025 GDP figures, which showed a real GDP growth rate of 1.0% saar, exceeding market consensus of 0.3% [4][5] - The forecast for fiscal 2026 has been revised downward from 1.1% to 0.9% [4][5] - Growth forecasts continue to exceed consensus estimates [5] Tariff Negotiations and Economic Impact - Reciprocal tariffs with the US will be raised to 15%, while tariffs on automobiles will be lowered [4][9] - The impact of the US tariff increase on the real economy has been limited so far, with no significant change in export volumes to the US [10] - The expected impact on growth rates due to tariff changes is -0.1% for fiscal 2025 and 2026 [9] Inflation and Consumption Trends - Despite high inflation, real private consumption is on a moderate upward trend, primarily due to increases in real employee compensation [15] - Real employee compensation remains below pre-pandemic levels, with a significant negative real wage gap of about -4% in 2Q 2025 [15][23] - Inflation is expected to decelerate moderately but is unlikely to fall significantly below 2% [23] Monetary Policy Outlook - No significant changes in the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) stance on interest rate hikes are expected unless Takaichi becomes prime minister [4][46] - An interest rate hike is anticipated in October, influenced by the political calendar and economic measures [46][47] Political Landscape and Future Cooperation - The political situation will be influenced by the outcome of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election, with potential cooperation with opposition parties depending on the outcome [38][42] - If Prime Minister Ishiba remains in office, cooperation with the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) or the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) is likely [38][42] Fiscal Policy Uncertainty - High uncertainty exists regarding future economic measures, with a placeholder assumption of a supplementary budget of about 15 trillion yen [34] - Further increases in defense spending sought by the US government are not reflected in the current economic outlook [34] Employment and Wage Dynamics - The number of employees has increased at an annual rate of about 0.7-0.8%, contributing to the rise in real employee compensation [15] - Nominal wage increases of at least 3% are deemed necessary to address the negative real wage gap [15] Long-term Economic Policy Trends - The long-term trend in economic policy is shifting from monetary policy to fiscal policy, focusing more on household-oriented policies rather than corporate-oriented ones [45][42] Other Important Content - The presence of a Liberal Democratic Party presidential election will significantly influence future political cooperation and economic policy direction [38][42] - The economic measures and their scale will be critical in shaping the economic outlook, with potential implications for fiscal policy and public sentiment regarding inflation and consumption [34][23]

Monetary Policy Stance - The policy rate is 100 basis points closer to neutral than a year ago [2] - Policy is not on a preset course and may warrant adjusting [2] - Decisions are based solely on data assessment and its implications for the economic outlook and balance of risks [3] Economic Outlook & Risk Assessment - Near-term inflation risks are tilted to the upside, and employment risks to the downside [1] - The framework calls for balancing both sides of the dual mandate (inflation and employment) [1] - The stability of the unemployment rate allows for careful consideration of policy changes [2]

Monetary Policy Response to Stagflation - The Federal Reserve faces the challenge of responding to stagflationary shocks, such as those potentially caused by tariffs, which have both inflationary and supply-side effects [1] - The Fed aims to mitigate secondary impacts of tariffs, including wage-price spirals and increased production costs for domestic manufacturers due to tariffs on parts, components, supplies, and intermediate goods [1] - Determining which price increases are transitory and which require a policy response is a key task for the Fed [2] Data Dependency and Economic Outlook - Future monetary policy decisions depend on incoming economic data, particularly inflation reports, to gain clarity [3][4] - Strong economic data with inflation trending downwards would support the Fed's decision to lower interest rates to a settling point [3]

It’s been a wild economic ride lately. Some WSJ reporters got together to chew over how things are looking—and what to expect next. https://t.co/iwM37dP4Jq ...

Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve decided to leave interest rates unchanged, maintaining the range of 425% to 450% [1] - Two governors dissented, favoring a 025% rate cut [1] - It marks the first time since 1993 that two governors have dissented [2] - Nine votes supported keeping rates on hold [2] Economic Assessment - Export fluctuations continue to impact the data [3] - Growth moderated in the first half of the year [3] - Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated [3][4] - The Fed removed "diminished" from the statement, indicating continued high uncertainty [4] - Inflation remains somewhat elevated [4] - Unemployment is low, and the labor market is solid [4] Forward Guidance - The committee has attended to the risks on both sides of the mandate [5] - The statement does not hint at an imminent rate cut in September [5]

Economic Outlook - Singapore's financial sector is projected to experience slower growth in the coming years [1] - Trade and geopolitical tensions are creating uncertainty for Singapore's economic outlook [1] Industry Impact - The trade-dependent nature of Singapore makes it vulnerable to global economic headwinds [1]

Economic Outlook - The economic outlook has brightened a bit, but it's not as rosy as the market looks [1] - Most forecasts still see tariff effects weakening growth and driving inflation higher [2] - The average of 15 forecasts on the street in the CNBC rapid update up almost a percentage point for the second quarter to 25% from 16% in April [2] - The overall year outlook is 13% [3] Inflation and Fed Policy - Average core PCE inflation also came down for the second quarter with what looks to be an expectation of a delayed tariff impact, but it's forecast to shoot up in the third and fourth quarters back towards 3% before settling down next year [4] - Inflation remains a percentage point above and it fuels this debate about whether the Fed should cut now or hold till those numbers start to come down [5] - The Fed's dilemma is weaker growth, but inflation remains relatively high [10] - If the Fed can feel confident that inflation will come down, they could maybe cut a little bit in the back half of this year [11] Tariff Impact - There have been markdowns in the earnings outlook for tariff affected companies [9] - The idea being when you put up GDP numbers that are weaker towards 1%, the theory is that something's got to give in terms of tariffs [8] - It looks like the tariff impact will be a little less, and if we get out of this with a couple quarters of weaker growth, that would be getting off cheap [9]