Economic Growth & Resilience - US economy defies tariff doomsday predictions, showing continued growth [1] - AI infrastructure is contributing to economic growth [1] - Corporate balance sheets are healthy, providing resilience and investment power [1] - American companies' investments are powering economic growth [1] Potential Risks & Softening - Potential risks include labor market drops, tariffs passed to consumers, and asset valuation adjustments [2] - Expectation of a period of economic softening [2] Overall Outlook - Reasonably positive outlook for the economy, expecting around 26 (likely referring to a specific economic indicator, but without context, the unit is unclear) [2] - US economy demonstrates resilience and strength compared to other regions [2]

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is showing signs of softening, with several CEOs indicating a potential slowdown ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision [2][3][6] - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon noted that while the economy is still progressing, there are signals suggesting a shift [2][4] - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expressed concerns about the economy weakening, stating uncertainty about whether it is heading towards a recession [5][6] Labor Market Insights - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised its nonfarm payrolls data, showing a significant drop of 911,000 from initial estimates, marking the largest shift in over 20 years [1] - Job creation in August was weak, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 [8] - Wells Fargo CEO Charles Scharf highlighted a growing disparity between higher-income and lower-income consumers, indicating economic struggles for the latter [7] Federal Reserve Expectations - There is a consensus among CEOs that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates, with expectations of a 25-basis point reduction [4][10] - Barclays CEO C. S. Venkatakrishnan mentioned that the Fed's decision may be influenced by the softness in the labor market [10] - PNC Financial Services CEO Bill Demchak noted underlying pressures in the economy that could lead to rate cuts despite consumer spending driving growth [12]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 lost 3.1%, the Dow Jones fell about 2.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite retreated 3.5%, marking the worst week for the S&P 500 since September 2024 [1] - The Nasdaq officially entered correction territory, defined as a 10% decline from recent highs [1] - SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) lost 3.4% during the week [1] Employment Data - Nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000 in February, falling short of economists' expectations of 170,000 [2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, raising concerns about economic softening [2] Trade Policy Concerns - Market turmoil was driven by uncertainty surrounding President Trump's tariff announcements, although goods from Canada and Mexico were exempted under the USMCA until April 2 [3] - Glen Smith, CIO at GDS Wealth Management, noted that the market does not favor uncertainty and anticipates continued market volatility until trade uncertainties are resolved [4] Economic Outlook - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged a potential loss of economic momentum but attributed it to a transition from previous policies [5] - He reassured investors that any tariff-related price increases would be a one-time adjustment rather than a trigger for lasting inflation [5] Top-Performing ETFs - Gold Miners – MicroSectors Gold Miners 3X Leveraged ETN (GDXU) increased by 14.8%, with gold bullion ETF (GLD) gaining over 1.2% [7] - China – Direxion Daily CSI China Internet Index Bull 2x Shares (CWEB) rose by 12.1%, driven by developments in Chinese tech stocks, particularly Alibaba's AI advancements [8] - Europe – Direxion Daily FTSE Europe Bull 3x Shares (EURL) was up 10.6%, with earnings momentum shifting towards Europe and parts of Asia [9] - Homebuilding – Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL) gained 5.1%, likely due to a decline in treasury bond yields [10] - Mexico – Direxion Daily MSCI Mexico Bull 3X Shares (MEXX) increased by 4.8%, aided by the delay of auto tariffs on Mexico and Canada [12]