Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a flat trading session, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 all down in single digits, while the Nasdaq is down by 38 points [1] - A narrow range of trading is expected to continue until after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on monetary policy [1] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The market anticipates a third rate cut of 2025, with a -25 basis point reduction in the Fed funds rate already priced in [2] - There is expected dissension among FOMC members, with some advocating for no change and others, like Fed Governor Stephen Miran, likely supporting a 50 basis point cut [2] - The Fed's reluctance to cut rates is primarily due to ongoing inflation concerns, with the current inflation rate at +3.0% as of September [3][4] Inflation Metrics - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a year-over-year increase of +3.0%, marking the fifth consecutive month of rising or unchanged rates [4] - A potential increase to +3.3% is anticipated for the upcoming November CPI report, based on historical trends [5] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index also reflects elevated inflation at +2.8% in September, up from +2.3% in April [6] Employment Cost Index - The Q3 Employment Cost Index (ECI) has dipped to +0.8%, which is the lowest since Q3 of the previous year, indicating no immediate inflationary pressures [7] Earnings Reports - Chewy (CHWY) reported favorable Q3 results with earnings of 32 cents per share, exceeding expectations, and revenues of $3.12 billion, which also surpassed estimates [8] - J. Jill (JILL) exceeded earnings expectations with 76 cents per share, outperforming the consensus by +31%, although revenues were lower than the previous year [9] - Oracle (ORCL) is expected to report fiscal Q2 earnings growth of +10.88% and revenue growth of +14.84% after the market closes [10] - Adobe Systems (ADBE) is anticipated to report fiscal Q4 earnings growth of +12% and revenue growth of +8.85% [11] - Synopsys (SNPS) is expected to report a decline of -17.94% in earnings but a revenue increase of +37.6% [12]

It's Rick Santelli. What are the numbers. >> The numbers are our third quarter employment cost index up 8/10en of a percent.That's a smidge lighter than the 9/10 we're expecting. And the last three quarters have been 9/10 from the last quarter 24 the first second quarter this year. And as I said, this is the third quarter.And that would be the lightest going back to wow you have to go back a ways to the second quarter of 2021. It equaled it equal where we were in the third quarter of last year. So it has be ...

Economic Indicators - Personal income rebounded, increasing by 0.3%, surpassing expectations, a notable improvement from the previous month's decline of 0.4% [1][2] - Personal spending rose by 0.3%, slightly below expectations, but reversing a previous decline [2] - Real spending, adjusted for inflation, increased by 0.1%, aligning with expectations [2] Inflation Analysis (PCE) - Month-over-month PCE increased by 0.3%, slightly warmer than previous months, but not the highest reading of the year [3] - Year-over-year PCE increased by 2.8%, the highest reading of the year, equaling March 2024 levels [4] - Core month-over-month PCE increased by 0.3%, the warmest since February [4] - Year-over-year core PCE increased by 2.8%, also warmer than expected and the warmest since February [5] Employment Data - The Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the second quarter increased by 0.9%, slightly above expectations [5] - Initial jobless claims were reported at 218,000, lower than expected [6] - Continuing claims remained above 1.9 million, specifically 1,946,000 [6] Market Reaction - Despite slightly hotter PCE numbers, the market did not climb aggressively [7] - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by approximately one basis point to 4.34%, but remained down almost three basis points for the session [7]