And you can see right now the ten year at 422, the two year at 370. >> And now to the gusts that we've been talking about all morning President Donald Trump. Mr.. President welcome. Thanks for thanks for calling in. Wish you could be here in person, but we'll do this.>> Good morning Joe. >> We've been talking about the BLS and the employment numbers all morning long. Sometimes I know you get a chance to tune in. I want to bring up a chart.I hope you can see it, or else I'll describe it to you. This is the r ...

BLS Employment Numbers & Data Integrity - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) household survey response rate has decreased from approximately 90% to 60% over the past 10-12 years [2] - A Wharton professor described the 60% response rate as unacceptable for such an important statistic and suggested making the questionnaires mandatory with a time limit [3][4] - There was a revision of 258,000 less jobs in two months, which was the biggest revision since 1968, without a clear explanation [5] - The speaker questions the use of outdated methods like snail mail for data collection in the internet age [5] Political Implications & Data Rigging Allegations - The speaker alleges that employment numbers were manipulated to negatively impact his election chances [6][7] - A revision of almost 900,000 jobs occurred shortly after the election, leading to claims of "phony numbers" being used to influence the election outcome [7][10] - The speaker suggests that positive numbers were released before the election to create a false impression of economic performance [9] - The speaker believes that after he won the election, the numbers were revised downward to reflect reality [10] Benchmark Revisions - Benchmark numbers are revised twice a year to reconcile monthly figures with overall numbers [8]

Economic Data & Accuracy - The author suggests the Bureau of Labor Statistics' estimation process is outdated and prone to errors [2] - Significant revisions in employment numbers indicate potential flaws in the government's economic estimates [2] - The author advocates for substantial improvements in governmental economic estimation methods to enhance accuracy [4] Potential Risks & Systemic Concerns - Manipulation of economic data by leaders to align with political objectives poses a threat to the functioning of the system, rule of law, and checks and balances [3] - Distorting the truth through manipulated numbers can erode confidence in the economic and political system [3] Leadership & Transparency - It is important for President Trump to clarify his reasoning behind potentially firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics [4]

Data Integrity & Security - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employs a secure process with numerous individuals involved in formulating employment and unemployment numbers, making manipulation highly unlikely [3][4][5] - The BLS prioritizes the integrity of the numbers, suggesting a low probability of inaccuracies [5] - The process is locked down, with about 40 people involved towards the end, further ensuring security [4] - The Commissioner of the BLS receives the numbers on Wednesday or the Friday before release, and the White House receives them on Thursday afternoon, with the final release at 8:30 AM on the first Friday of each month [14] Data Collection & Response Rates - Reduced response rates to the establishment survey (from employers) post-COVID (dropping from approximately 60% to 43%) are a concern [7] - The industry needs to address the declining response rate from employers to ensure a more accurate economic representation [7][8] - Prior to COVID, the household survey involved approximately 60,000 individuals [7] Political Influence & Appointments - While the President has the right to appoint and replace the BLS Commissioner, a political appointee, the existing secure process limits potential influence on the numbers [5][11][12] - The BLS bureaucracy and established processes are expected to continue preparing the numbers regardless of who is at the head [12] - The Commissioner's involvement in preparing the numbers is limited [13]

Core Insights - Visa's CFO, Chris Suh, discussed the current spending environment, highlighting consumer sentiment and economic indicators [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Employment numbers are reported to be strong, with stable wage growth contributing to a resilient consumer base [4]. - Inflation has moderated, which has positively impacted consumer spending behavior [4]. Group 2: Spending Trends - There is an observed uncertainty in consumer sentiment, which is reflected in the overall spending trends both domestically and in cross-border transactions [3]. - Despite the noise in the economic environment, Visa relies on factual data to assess the situation [3].