Saudi Arabia is set to make a dramatic move in its push to revive its equity market: allowing foreigners to own a majority stake in local companies https://t.co/opjRh2tT2N ...

A large overhang that threatened the Japanese equity market is being removed with the central bank laying out a century-long plan to offload its massive holdings of ETFs https://t.co/o3tahETUR6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes providing actionable and clear investment ideas through independent research, aiming to help members outperform the S&P 500 and avoid significant losses during market volatility [1] Investment Strategy - The company offers a service called Envision Early Retirement, which delivers at least one in-depth article per week focused on investment ideas [1] - The approach has reportedly enabled members to achieve better performance than the S&P 500 while mitigating risks associated with extreme market fluctuations in both equity and bond markets [1]

Let's bring in New Edge Wealth's Cameron Dawson and CNBC contributor Capital Area Planning Groups Malcolm Ethridge. Trivariates Adam Parker still with us at this hour. Uh Cameron, let's start to let's start with you because uh we were just talking about whether the economy is slowing down if it is doing so.Um is that consistent with where you see valuations in the equity markets right now. >> Certainly not. We don't think that the equity market is signaling any concern about a more meaningful slowdown in gr ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the expertise of Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA, who has a background in brand and intangible assets valuation, particularly in the technology, telecom, and banking sectors [1] Group 1: Analyst Background - Vladimir Dimitrov has experience as a strategy consultant and has worked with major global brands [1] - He graduated from the London School of Economics and focuses on identifying reasonably priced businesses with sustainable long-term competitive advantages [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **global equity and bond markets**, focusing on flows, liquidity, and macroeconomic conditions as of August 2025. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Equity Market Sentiment**: Macro managers remain cautious in equities, with a notable negative flow of -$6 billion in US equities as of August 2025, contrasting with a positive flow of $5 billion in non-US equities [3][8][48]. 2. **Bond Market Performance**: The bond market shows a positive trend, with $17.8 billion in flows for all bonds, indicating a preference for fixed income over equities [3][8]. 3. **Foreign Investment Trends**: Foreign investors accelerated their buying of US equities, with net purchases reaching $163 billion in June 2025, a significant increase from previous months [48][56]. 4. **Financial Conditions**: Financial conditions remain supportive for growth in both the US and euro area, with a shift towards loosening lending standards reported by banks [26][27][34]. 5. **Equity Valuation Framework**: The long-term fair value framework for the S&P 500 suggests that the market is currently trading approximately 15% above its fair value, indicating that much of the expected earnings improvement is already priced in [60][81][84]. 6. **Real Yield Analysis**: The current level of 10-year real UST yields is considered modestly cheap (10-20 basis points), with forecasts suggesting downward pressure due to expected Fed rate cuts [60][84]. Additional Important Insights 1. **ETF Flows**: There has been a notable divergence in ETF flows, with US-domiciled equity ETFs experiencing flatlining net flows since February 2025, indicating a potential 'buyers' strike' among retail investors [54][55]. 2. **Sector Performance**: The analysis of short interest in SPY and QQQ ETFs indicates a bullish signal for the equity market, as the gap between their short interests is historically associated with market corrections [21][22]. 3. **Credit Creation**: US bank lending growth has accelerated, averaging an annualized pace of around 5.3% year-to-date, which supports the overall credit creation environment [37][39]. 4. **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights the importance of macroeconomic indicators, such as payroll growth and fiscal deficits, in shaping market expectations and financial conditions [60][84]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into market trends, investment flows, and economic conditions relevant to the equity and bond markets.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The reports focus on the performance of hedge funds and mutual funds, analyzing $8 trillion of equity positions at the start of Q3 2025 [3][4] - Hedge funds have returned 8% YTD, while large-cap mutual funds have also returned 8% YTD, with 39% of large-cap mutual funds outperforming their benchmarks [3][5] Core Insights - Hedge funds and mutual funds have both navigated beta and alpha headwinds to generate solid YTD returns [5] - Mutual funds have cut cash allocations to near-record lows, while hedge fund net leverage remains near its 5-year average [3][11] - Health Care and Industrials are the most overweight sectors for both fund types, while Financials have seen increased exposure from both groups [3][17][19] - Mutual funds have reduced their exposure to the "Magnificent 7" stocks, increasing their underweights from 723 basis points in Q1 to 819 basis points [3][22] - Hedge funds have increased their exposure to the Magnificent 7, with the weight in their long portfolio rising from 11.8% in Q1 to 12.8% [3][22] Notable Stock Movements - COF has seen the largest increase in popularity among fund managers based on net changes in shares owned [3] - Seven "shared favorites" this quarter include APP, CRH, MA, SCHW, SPOT, V, and VRT, which have returned 20% YTD compared to 9% for the S&P 500 [3][22] Sector Positioning - Both hedge funds and mutual funds are underweight in Technology, with mutual funds carrying the largest underweight in Info Tech on record [17][18] - Financials dominate the list of stocks with the largest increase in hedge fund popularity, with FI, NU, and SSB joining COF and BRO among the most popular mutual fund increases [19] Performance Metrics - The Hedge Fund VIP basket has returned 13% YTD, while a basket of Concentrated Shorts has returned 8% YTD after a surge of more than 60% in recent months [5] - Mutual funds have seen a decline in cash balances to 1.4% of assets, nearly a record low [11][14] Economic Indicators - The median S&P 500 stock has a short interest of 2.3% of float, ranking in the 96th percentile relative to the last 5 years [11] - The S&P 500 is forecasted to have an EPS of $246 for 2024, with a year-over-year growth of 10% [29] Conclusion - The analysis indicates a cautious but optimistic outlook for hedge funds and mutual funds, with strategic positioning in sectors like Health Care and Industrials while navigating challenges in the Technology sector [3][17][19]

Market Trends & Economic Outlook - Major indices are tracking to close the week higher, with the S&P and NASDAQ pacing for their third positive week in four, and the Dow on course for its second positive week in three [1] - The market has largely processed economic data, driven by the resilience of the economy and consumer spending [2] - There's a growing possibility of stagflation, with potential inflation increases alongside economic deceleration and signs of a softening labor market [3] - Inflation measures show signs of fatigue, with goods prices potentially driving inflation higher, increasing the likelihood of a stagflation scenario [4] - The market focuses on data trends, such as the direction of the labor market and unemployment rate, rather than specific data points [6] Investment Strategies & Sector Performance - Companies with strong profit margins and solid free cash flow yields are performing well, supported by capital expenditure and profit margin expansion [7] - Sectors not investing in AI or reducing labor face margin squeeze due to potential supply chain price increases, leading to negative outlooks [8][9] - International markets, particularly Europe, are showing strength due to stronger economies and a weaker dollar, presenting diversification opportunities [11][12] - MSCI World Index XUS is up about 18% this year, compared to about 8% for the S&P 500, signaling a rebalancing of capital flows [10] Data Quality & Market Reaction - Uncertainty in data is inherent, with revisions being common due to the dynamic nature of information gathering [5] - The market is adept at understanding data ranges and focusing on trends rather than specific data points [6] CPI & Fed Policy - CPI is expected to pick up, potentially causing a market reaction, and influencing the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The interim management statement for Hargreave Hale AIM VCT PLC highlights a strong recovery in equity markets, particularly in the AIM sector, despite ongoing economic challenges in the UK. The company has reported its best quarterly performance in four years, driven by positive investment returns and strategic positioning in the market [2][4][6]. Investment Performance - The unaudited NAV per share increased by 1.95 pence from 34.48 pence to 36.43 pence, resulting in a total return of 5.66% for the quarter [7]. - Qualifying investments returned 1.42 pence per share, while non-qualifying investments gained 0.71 pence per share [7]. Market Overview - Following Liberation Day, market volatility was replaced by a more constructive outlook, with expectations of tariffs on US imports settling between 15-20%, which is lower than initial fears but higher than historical averages [3]. - The UK market benefited from an early trade deal with the USA, leading to strong gains in equity markets, particularly in AIM, which recorded a 12.1% increase [4][6]. Economic Context - The UK economy continues to face challenges, with a rising unemployment rate and mixed consumer confidence. However, June PMI data indicates a potential improvement after two months of contraction [5]. - Inflation is expected to peak in the current quarter, allowing for potential interest rate cuts, which could positively impact small company valuations [5]. Qualifying Investments - Cohort saw a significant increase of 29.5% in valuation, supported by a strong order book and positive trading outlook [9]. - The Property Franchise Group reported a 31.0% increase in valuation, driven by strong EBITDA growth following strategic mergers and acquisitions [10]. - Gousto's valuation increased by 51.8% due to good operating performance and rising peer valuations [11]. - Eagle Eye experienced a decline of 44.8% due to the loss of a significant contract, impacting revenue forecasts [12]. - Oberon Investments Group and Maxcyte saw declines of 18.6% and 22.5%, respectively, with Maxcyte de-listing from AIM [13][14]. Non-Qualifying Investments - The non-qualifying portfolio saw an increase of £1.28 million, with Chemring and Wickes performing well, while Shell and Hollywood Bowl faced declines [15]. Portfolio Structure - The VCT ended the period at 93.25% invested, comfortably above the HMRC defined investment test [16]. - The market for new qualifying investments remains subdued, with only two VCT qualifying IPOs in the last 12 months [17]. Share Buybacks and Discount Control - The company acquired 1.5 million shares at an average price of 33.54 pence, with the share price increasing from 33.8 pence to 34.10 pence during the quarter [22]. Post Period End - As of 18 July 2025, the unaudited NAV per share decreased slightly to 36.34 pence, while AIM increased by 0.54% [23].

Market Trend & Outlook - Piper Sandler's technical analysis indicates the market trend is still higher, targeting 6,600 for the year-end objective [4][5] - The market is making new highs despite some negative sentiment and down AI numbers, suggesting a "hated market" [5][6] - The S&P 500 has broken out to all-time new highs, contrasting with previous concerns of a potential breakdown to 2,000 levels [3] Valuation & Market Structure - Valuations matter, but the market has been shrinking with 20%-25% fewer stocks due to share buybacks [7] - The pool of available equity has decreased from 8,000 to about 3,800, while the amount of capital has increased [9] - Historical price-to-earnings ratios may not be as relevant due to the shrinking market [8] Cyclical Stocks & Housing Market - Cyclical stocks, including homebuilders like Horton (better-than-expected results), LAR, BLD, and BLDR, are showing constructive patterns and reversing downtrends [11][12] - Housing numbers are good, suggesting a stronger consumer environment than people are thinking [10][12] Commodity & Industrial Signals - Copper is breaking out to an all-time new high, signaling a healthy economy and a meaningful pickup in the industrials [12][13]