Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to perform strongly in the next three to four weeks due to better-than-expected Q2 economic data and unrealized worst-case scenario risks [2] - AI supply chain support is contributing to market broadening [2] - The market is expected to continue climbing the "wall of worry" in the near term [2] Risks and Concerns - Tariff risks are expected to manifest in economic data over the next few quarters [2] - Tightening labor supply due to immigration policies poses a risk to the market's interest rate sensitivity in the second half of the year [6] - Inflation is expected to accelerate in Q3 and Q4 due to new and holiday ordering, and the clearing of pre-tariff inventory backlogs [5] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut rates once this year, despite data suggesting they could have already cut twice [7] - Moderate tariffs are considered more inflationary than severe tariffs because they allow companies to pass on higher costs or absorb margin hits without demand destruction [9][10][11] - Tightening labor supply will likely cause the unemployment rate to move lower in the second half of the year [11] - Easy financial conditions, including strong equity markets and tight credit spreads, suggest the Fed does not need to cut rates assertively [12]

Market Trends - Bitcoin Dominance is increasing, indicating a potential shift in market focus [1] - Equity markets are showing strength, suggesting a positive sentiment in the broader financial landscape [1] - The Dollar is decreasing aggressively, which could impact international trade and investment [1] - Altcoins experienced a significant upward surge [1] Investment Strategy - Altcoins' continued upward movement depends on Bitcoin's price increase followed by a period of consolidation [1] - Equities continuing higher and the Dollar continuing lower are key indicators for a buying opportunity during dips [1]

Market Overview & Strategy - Tariffs are viewed negatively, but incentives and tax policies are counteracting their impact, contributing to positive equity market action [1] - High valuations and growth expectations are supported by market sentiment [1] - The market favors visible growth, with secular growth themes remaining attractive [1][2] - Tactical pullbacks in fundamentally sound stocks with good earnings and commentary represent buying opportunities [3] Investment Recommendations - IEX (small and midcap industrial ETF) is a recommended buy due to discounted valuations in cyclical areas, exposure to secular themes (water, oil & gas, agriculture), and anticipated earnings growth [1] - The ETF is focused on small and mid-cap industrial companies [1] - Investors are diversifying across asset classes, including short duration fixed income ETFs offering 4-6% yield [5] Risk Assessment - There's concern about investors chasing the rally and crowding into higher beta names, potentially indicating rising complacency [1] - While sentiment is high, the fundamental story remains intact, suggesting that pullbacks can be buying opportunities if earnings and commentary are positive [3]

Well, for more on how this might impact markets and investors, let's bring in Terry Haynes. He is founder of political forecasting firm Fangia Policy and former head of US policy and political analysis at Evercore ISI. Terry, it's great to have you on.Let's start right there. Can we get a bill across the finish line here by July 4th. And how much now hinges on the Senate bill going back to the House to do it.Good afternoon, Morgan and John. Uh firstly, I think it's entirely possible that they can get it don ...

Core Insights - The focus is on producing objective, data-driven research primarily about small- to mid-cap companies, which are often overlooked by many investors [1] Group 1 - The analysis occasionally includes large-cap companies to provide a broader perspective on the equity markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The focus is on producing objective, data-driven research primarily about small- to mid-cap companies, which are often overlooked by many investors, while also occasionally analyzing large-cap companies to provide a broader market perspective [1]. Group 1 - The research emphasizes the importance of small- to mid-cap companies in investment analysis due to their potential for growth and the lack of attention they receive from larger investors [1].