Everything Bubble
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GMO Q3 2025 Quarterly Letter (Mutual Fund:GMODX)
Seeking Alpha· 2025-11-24 10:34
Core Insights - The current AI market is perceived as a classic investment bubble characterized by high valuations and speculative behavior, reminiscent of past bubbles like the 2000 Internet Bubble [2][3] - Despite concerns about the AI bubble, there are still reasonable investment opportunities in non-U.S. equities, deep value stocks, and liquid alternatives that can provide good returns regardless of the AI market's status [2][26] Investment Environment - The S&P 500 is trading at valuation levels comparable to those seen during the Internet Bubble, with some metrics indicating even higher valuations [3][42] - Venture capitalists are investing heavily in AI startups at inflated valuations, often without clear business plans, indicating rampant speculation [3][43] - AI-related stocks have seen significant price increases, with some companies like Nvidia experiencing massive earnings growth, while others like Tesla are driven by speculative hopes [22][55] Historical Context - The current AI bubble is likened to the 2000 Internet Bubble, where investors could build portfolios that performed well regardless of whether the market was in a bubble or not [4][25] - Previous bubbles, such as the 2007-8 Everything Bubble and the 2021 Duration Bubble, presented different challenges for investors, often requiring more drastic portfolio adjustments [11][20] Portfolio Strategy - Investors are encouraged to tilt their portfolios away from AI stocks towards undervalued assets, which can mitigate potential losses if the AI bubble bursts [2][26] - A diversified portfolio that includes international small caps, REITs, and emerging market equities can provide strong expected returns even in a bubble scenario [9][10] - The current investment landscape allows for the construction of portfolios that are less dependent on the AI trade, with many risk assets trading at fair or compelling valuations [26][27]
X @Bitcoin Archive
Bitcoin Archive· 2025-11-04 19:51
Market Analysis - Bitcoin could potentially crash -80% again [1] - Discussion revolves around the 'Everything Bubble' popping [1] - The business cycle is on the brink [1] Expert Insights - Willy Woo provides insights on the aforementioned topics [1]
X @Bitcoin Archive
Bitcoin Archive· 2025-10-31 11:53
Market Analysis - Bitcoin 可能再次暴跌 -80% [1] - “Everything Bubble” 正在破裂 [1] - 商业周期处于崩溃边缘 [1] Risk Assessment - Bitcoin Treasury 公司面临风险 [1]
X @Bitcoin Archive
Bitcoin Archive· 2025-10-30 15:50
Market Analysis & Potential Risks - Bitcoin could potentially crash -80% again [1] - Discussion of the 'Everything Bubble' popping [1] - Analysis of the business cycle on the BRINK [1] Bitcoin Specific Risks - Examination of Bitcoin Treasury Co Risks [1]
X @Bitcoin Archive
Bitcoin Archive· 2025-10-30 09:33
Market Trend & Potential Risk - Bitcoin could experience an 80% bear market [1] - The business cycle is on the brink of tipping over, potentially leading to the popping of the "everything bubble" [1] Expert Opinion - Willy Woo suggests the potential for a significant market downturn [1]
X @Bitcoin Archive
Bitcoin Archive· 2025-10-29 18:21
Market Trend & Potential Risk - Bitcoin could experience an 80% bear market [1] - The business cycle is on the brink of tipping over, potentially leading to the popping of the "everything bubble" [1]
Q4 Entry & Exits. Bitcoin & Altcoins w/ Jerry V. Hall
Digital Asset News· 2025-09-14 14:53
Market Analysis & Investment Strategy - The report questions whether there is an "EVERYTHING BUBBLE" and suggests taking profits, while acknowledging potential uncertainty [1] - It highlights a "SUPER RISKY" play called Aventis (Avantis), referencing its listing on CoinGecko [1] - The report promotes a strategy of 5% allocation to "DEGEN PLAYS" [1] - It provides links to both old and new crypto exit strategies for 2024/2025 [1] Crypto Education & Resources - The report offers simplified crypto education through the DAN Website (danteachescrypto.com) [1] - It recommends iTrust CRYPTO IRA, offering a $100 sign-up bonus and no monthly fees [1] - It suggests using Kraken for crypto trading, highlighting a $25 claim in the app [1] - It recommends Tangem cold storage wallet for secure crypto storage, offering a 10% discount via affiliate link [1] - It promotes CoinLedger crypto tax software with a 20% discount using a coupon code [1] Risk Management & Security - The report emphasizes avoiding scams and sourcing information carefully [1] - It warns against falling for A I scams [1] - It stresses the importance of diversifying crypto storage [1]