Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan's Global Data Watch: Asia Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Export Market - **Context**: Analysis of China's export diversification post-US tariffs Core Insights 1. **Export Growth**: Despite US tariffs averaging ~32%, China's goods exports grew by 5% in 2025, consistent with the previous year's growth [1][11] 2. **Redirection of Exports**: China's direct export share to the US decreased by one-third in 2025, from 15% to 10%, leading to a redirection of exports to other markets [1][11] 3. **Broader Diversification**: The decline in US export share was offset by increases in market share across Africa, Asia, and Europe, indicating a broader diversification than previously assumed [1][11] 4. **Impact on Domestic Manufacturing**: Increased Chinese exports are creating pressures on local manufacturing sectors in Asia, evidenced by rising trade barriers on Chinese imports [1][11] 5. **ASEAN Economies**: ASEAN countries, due to strong economic ties with China, are unlikely to push back against increased Chinese imports despite the pressures on their manufacturing bases [1][11] Additional Important Points 1. **Economic Ties**: The strong economic connections between ASEAN economies and China as a source of foreign direct investment (FDI) and as an export market are highlighted [1][11] 2. **Trade Barriers**: The increase in trade barriers on Chinese imports suggests a growing concern among Asian countries regarding the impact of Chinese exports on their local industries [1][11] 3. **Long-term Trends**: The increase in exports to Asia reflects a secular rise over the last decade, with shipments to Asia now making up almost a third of China's export basket [1][11] Economic Forecasts 1. **China's GDP Forecast**: The 4Q GDP forecast for China is maintained at 3.0% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate (saar) or 4.2% year-on-year (yoy) for 2025, with net exports contributing 1.4 percentage points [11][12] 2. **Fiscal Spending**: Year-to-date fiscal deposits are elevated at 2.04 trillion yuan, indicating weak fiscal spending, which may lead to higher unused funds carrying over into the next year [12][11] This summary encapsulates the key insights and implications regarding China's export dynamics and its impact on regional economies, particularly in the context of ongoing trade tensions and economic forecasts.

Impact of US Tariffs on India - Higher US tariffs are already impacting India's exports to the US, leading to contraction in some product categories and affecting labor-intensive sectors, particularly MSMEs [1][2] - If India faces a 50% US tariff, it could result in approximately a 0.5 percentage point reduction on an annualized basis [3] Countercyclical Policy Easing - India has implemented countercyclical policies, including interest rate cuts, liquidity easing, and macroprudential easing, to boost credit and offset the impact of US tariffs over the next 12 months [3] Government Reform Measures - The government is supporting exporters and implementing reform measures, including tax cuts and labor reforms, to address potential pressure on growth [4] - Further reforms are expected to improve the ease of doing business, including decriminalizing laws [5] Attracting Foreign Investment - India aims to attract more foreign direct investment into sectors like atomic energy, insurance, and banking [6] Focus on Diversification and Self-Sufficiency - The focus remains on export diversification, boosting domestic demand, increasing self-sufficiency in the supply chain, and GVC integration [2][3][4][6] - India aims to signal that it remains open to business [7]