Export Diversion

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出口转移正在发生吗?-Japan Economics-Is Export Diversion Underway
2025-07-19 14:57
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **Japanese export industry**, particularly focusing on the impact of US tariff policies on export values to North America and the diversification of export destinations by Japanese companies [2][3][7]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Export Diversification**: - Exports to Europe and the Middle East are increasing, compensating for the significant decline in exports to North America. This indicates a trend of Japanese exporters diversifying their markets in response to anticipated higher US tariffs [2][3]. 2. **Year-over-Year Export Trends**: - Japan's export value to the US, Canada, and Mexico has decreased notably, with a reported decline of **-25.3% YoY** for passenger vehicles. However, total export value remains nearly flat at **-0.5% YoY** due to growth in other regions [3][4][11]. 3. **Comparison with 2018**: - Current export trends differ from those observed in 2018 when the US raised tariffs. Real exports for April to June 2025 were nearly flat at **+0.1% QoQ**, with a solid **+3.2% MoM** increase in June [4][12]. 4. **Impact of Tariffs on Pricing**: - Many automakers have reduced export prices to absorb tariff impacts, with some companies imposing tariff surcharges. However, most are absorbing the tariffs without fully passing them on to customers [4][5][9]. 5. **Future Tariff Adjustments**: - As US-Japan trade negotiations continue, companies may adopt a wait-and-see approach regarding price adjustments. Once tariff rates are finalized, real exports to the US may gradually be affected [5][8]. 6. **Strong Performance in Specific Categories**: - Exports of batteries, metal products, and food items to the US have maintained positive YoY growth, indicating that export trends vary significantly by product category [9][11]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Adaptation**: A Japanese company exporting premium Omi beef has begun exporting to Dubai to reduce dependence on the US market, exemplifying the shift in export strategies [3]. - **Automotive Sector Challenges**: The automotive sector faces a projected sales volume decline of approximately **12%** if the current tariff on automobiles remains in place [8]. - **Export Value Statistics**: The export value growth by major destination shows significant declines for North America while other regions like the Middle East and Africa show strong double-digit growth [11][19]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the Japanese export industry amidst changing tariff policies and market dynamics.