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中国稀土:评级上调至 “买入”,目标价维持约 61 元人民币
2025-12-21 11:01
Summary of China Rare Earth Resources and Technology (000831.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: China Rare Earth Resources & Technology Co., Ltd. (CRE) - **Ticker**: 000831.SZ - **Market Cap**: Rmb47,914 million (US$6,804 million) [4][9] Key Points Industry and Market Context - **Sector**: Rare Earth Materials, including mining, separation, production, and trade of rare-earth oxides and metals [14] - **Investment Thesis**: The recent correction in share prices is viewed as a healthy valuation reset, presenting a strategic buying opportunity rather than a fundamental deterioration in the sector [1][15] Financial Performance and Valuation - **Current Valuation**: Stock trades at 69.7x 2026E P/E and 8.5x 2026E P/B, slightly above the historical average of 7.3x P/B since 2013 [2] - **Target Price**: Rmb61.6 per share, implying a potential upside of 36.4% from the current price of Rmb45.15 [4][9] - **Earnings Summary**: - 2023A: Net Profit of Rmb418 million, Diluted EPS of Rmb0.423, P/E of 106.8 [6] - 2024A: Expected Net Profit of -Rmb140 million, EPS of -Rmb0.132 [6] - 2025E: Expected Net Profit of Rmb336 million, EPS of Rmb0.317 [6] - 2026E: Expected Net Profit of Rmb667 million, EPS of Rmb0.629 [6] Regulatory Developments - **Export License Approvals**: As of December 18, some Chinese exporters have met the requirements for applying for general export licenses, improving visibility and operational efficiency in export administration [3] Risks and Challenges - **Demand Growth**: Slower-than-expected growth in downstream applications, particularly in new energy vehicles (NEVs) and wind power [17] - **Global Supply Chain**: Increased mining or processing capacity outside of China could erode market share [17] - **Trade Barriers**: Potential tariffs and trade barriers from the US and other economies [17] - **Price Volatility**: Fluctuations in rare earth prices due to cyclical market conditions [17] - **Policy Changes**: Adjustments in Chinese policies affecting supply and profitability [17] Strategic Positioning - **Core Business**: Focus on mining and primary separation with limited downstream processing [15] - **Importance**: CRE is a central state-owned enterprise (SOE) controlling medium-to-heavy rare earth resources, crucial for high-tech and defense sectors [15] Conclusion - The investment outlook for China Rare Earth Resources and Technology is positive, supported by recent valuation corrections and regulatory clarity, despite existing risks related to demand, global competition, and policy changes. The target price reflects a favorable risk-reward scenario for investors [1][15][16]
Trump Shifts Stance in Letting Nvidia Sell to China
Youtube· 2025-12-09 14:26
Turning back to one of our top stories, President Trump allowing an idea to sell its 200 trips to China. Bloomberg's Ed Ludlow joins us from San Francisco with more. Ed, how much of a reversal is this in Silicon Valley, given the fact that it seems like there is a shift in the approach to national security as a point of export control policy.A big shift and I think even Bloomberg Economics published a note on it, which I enjoyed reading because the H 200 is a piece of technology at the center of export Cont ...