July 15, 2025 02:51 PM GMT China Musings | Asia Pacific But this does not change our view of notably slower growth in 2H: We expect real GDP growth YoY to slip to 4.5% in 3Q and 4.2% in 4Q, owing to a trio of drags: (1) Weaker exports: We expect export growth to slow from 6%Y in 1H to ~0%Y in 2H, resulting in a 60–70bps drag on 2H GDP growth. The payback from earlier export front-loading alone would exert a 2ppt drag on the YoY pace in 2H vs. 1H. In our base case, we assume that the US tariff rate on China ...

FICC Research Economics 13 June 2025 China Outlook Trade truce continues Ongoing trade talks could reduce the tail risks of trade war escalation. We expect exports to slow visibly to close to 0% in H2 based on a likely payback from ~6% growth in H1. We expect 2025 full-year CPI inflation to stay at the post-GFC low of 0.2%. Next week, retail sales & FAI will be in focus. Despite absence of details, the ongoing trade talks could reduce tail risks Following the phone call between Trump and Xi last week, the U ...