Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The profitability of China's banking FICC business remains considerable, with a pre-tax total asset return on equity of approximately 3.35% as of 2024A, primarily driven by interest income [1][12] - The FICC business has experienced a decline in yield over the past five years, with interest rates decreasing by about 50 basis points [2] - Future projections indicate a potential decline in asset return on equity to 1.61% in five years, a decrease of 174 basis points compared to 2024 levels [3] Current Profitability of China's Banking FICC Business - The current yield structure shows that interest income contributes 3.10%, capital gains 1.61%, and exchange gains 0.18% to the total asset return [12][13] - The financial market business ROA is 0.98%, significantly higher than the overall banking ROA of 0.75% [1][13] - Notable performers in the FICC business include banks like China Merchants Bank and Changshu Bank, with post-tax net returns exceeding 2.0% [13] Historical Profitability Changes - Over the past five years, the FICC business yield has consistently remained above 3%, with a notable decline in interest income during the interest rate reduction cycle [2][34] Future Profitability Outlook - Projections suggest that the financial market business ROA may drop to 0.44% in five years, reflecting a significant decrease in profitability [3] Characteristics of U.S. Banking FICC Business in Low-Interest Rate Periods - U.S. banks expanded bond holdings during the initial low-interest phase, but FICC income still declined, with a 0.5 percentage point drop in income share from 2008 to 2012 [4] - Strategies employed by JPMorgan included shortening bond durations and increasing allocations to credit and overseas bonds [4] Recommendations for China's Banking FICC Business - Increase the proportion of bond assets in OCI accounts, which currently stands at 28.4%, below the U.S. average of 42.5% during low-interest periods [5] - Focus on enhancing the allocation of credit and overseas bonds, as well as improving risk hedging practices to mitigate potential losses from rapid interest rate increases [5] Investment Suggestions - The report suggests adopting a bullish mindset towards bank stocks, emphasizing the importance of stock selection within the context of a long-term bullish trend driven by low interest rates and the revaluation of RMB assets [7]