Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is perceived to have room for changes that could enhance the velocity of the financial system [1][2] - Current borrowing practices indicate that the overnight funds rate is less relevant, suggesting a need for stability in the back end of the yield curve to support mortgage rates and existing home sales [2][3] - A proposed adjustment to the funds rate is to set it at 3%, which could align with market expectations and inflation break-even rates [3][4] Group 2 - The discussion emphasizes the importance of addressing mispricing in the markets to achieve a more favorable rate environment [4] - There is a belief that after adjusting the rate, further evaluations should be made to determine if additional changes are necessary [4]

I want to ask about Wall Street and specifically about this equity market. I do watch our competition, and I saw your interview with Andrew. Last week you said this is like October of 1999.But after that, as you pointed out, you know, the stock market doubled. We had a drop in October, like an 11% intraday drop. But then the stock market doubled to March of 2000.Are we still in line for a doubling of this market. Well, it's so funny because you had mentioned that 54% of fund managers think that we're in a b ...

I do want to get the government shutdown into this conversation because markets so far don't look that concerned. We're not getting the economic data that we love to dig into. But I am curious what this means for the Federal Reserve.We have a policy meeting coming up on the 29th. It looks like we're not going to get the CPI release that we were or the inflation release we're expecting next week. We know the jobs market has been delayed when it comes to that official NFP release.When it comes to making polic ...

Core Viewpoint - The dollar index is experiencing downward pressure due to falling U.S. interest rates and rising debt levels, indicating that it has not yet found a bottom [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Index Performance - The dollar index was trading at 97.77 on July 21, 2025, and has shown little movement over the past two months, with potential for lower lows as U.S. rates decline [2]. - The dollar index has declined 12.5% from a high of 110.17 on January 13, 2025, to a low of 96.37 on July 1, 2025 [3]. - Since July 24, the index has consolidated within a range of 96.22 to 100.26, currently around 97.50, close to critical technical support at 96.22 [4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Dynamics - The interest rate differential between the U.S. dollar and the euro significantly influences the dollar index, with the euro making up 57.6% of the index [5]. - The Federal Reserve cut the short-term Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points to a midpoint of 4.125% during the September 18 FOMC meeting, with expectations for further reductions due to rising unemployment and low inflation [5][6]. - The Fed is likely to continue reducing rates, influenced by the upcoming appointment of a new Chairman in early 2026, which may align with the administration's preference for lower short-term rates [7][8].

Group 1 - Inflation reached highs not seen since the early 1980s three years ago, prompting the Federal Reserve to increase the funds rate to 3.25% as part of a rapid tightening cycle [1] - The tightening cycle by the Fed is noted as one of the fastest in decades, indicating significant shifts in monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide specific insights or analysis related to companies or industries, focusing instead on general economic conditions and monetary policy [2][3]

Jeremy Seagull, the Wharton School Professor of Finance, and he joins us live. >> Okay, you're getting ready for the game tonight. Y'all, I'll forgive you.>> That's in five hours away. >> Oh, I know you're rooting for I knew I know who I'm rooting against. Let's put you that way.>> Hoping for a tie, actually. Uh it's good to have you. Um >> thank you.>> Is Is a lot at stake tomorrow or is it already a done deal, do you think, for September. >> One one cuts a done deal. uh two cuts would be in play with a ne ...

Never's a long time. Let me expand the conversation. We'll bring in Charles Schwab's Kevin Gordon.He's with us here at Post 9 and Truist Keith Learn is joining us as well. It's great to see you both. That's a good segue, Keith, to go to you because that is one of your principal picks, the small caps, which you upgraded.That's right. Well, great to be with you. I've been listening to the conversation.I actually agree with a lot of it. I mean, we we're still bullish on tech. We're still bullish on lab large c ...

Home Depot reporting its first earnings miss on both the B bottom and top line since May 2014, but stocks trading higher after maintaining its fullear outlook. Other major retail reports on deck this week. We've got Target, Lowe's, TJ Maxx tomorrow, and then Walmart on Thursday.Joining us now is DA Davidson, senior analyst, Michael Baker. Michael, it it's good to have you. Did you see a reason to buy in this report.Sure. Yeah, although uh it was a little bit light of expectations. Uh the comps were only lik ...

Fed Policy & Interest Rates - The CNBC Fed survey projects the Fed funds rate to be at 389% by the end of the year [1] - The base case expectation is that the Fed will cut rates one to two times this year, aligning with the Fed's communication [2] - The Fed's policy statement is expected to remain unchanged, with any news potentially emerging from the statement of economic projections [3] - The Fed is expected to maintain its current stance, awaiting further data to clarify inflation expectations [7] Economic Uncertainty & Geopolitical Factors - There's increased uncertainty due to the Middle East situation, reciprocal tariffs, and unclear US-China relations [4][5] - Geopolitics is playing a bigger role in inflation expectations [6] - The Fed's tools are limited in addressing changes in trade policy, the political environment, and geopolitical factors [6] US Dollar & Treasury Market - The dollar has shown weakness, with a temporary rebound as a flight to safety [8] - Foreign buyers have reduced their holdings of US Treasuries, decreasing from 50% to 30% over the past decade [8] - Dollar depreciation is anticipated to continue marginally, with treasury market volatility expected, especially in the long end [13] Investor Sentiment & Market Dynamics - Investors, including sophisticated institutional investors, are questioning their geographic allocation to US assets [10] - The depth and liquidity of US markets, including treasuries, the dollar, and private assets, remain robust [11] - There is still no alternative to the US dollar [12] - A transition is occurring that matters for flows and valuations, but it is marginal from a geopolitical perspective at the moment [12]

Economic Overview - The U.S. trade deficit reached a record low of -$140.5 billion in March, surpassing the previous estimate of -$137.6 billion and the revised prior record of -$123.2 billion [2] - The trade deficit metric has been consistently reported since 1992, indicating ongoing trade challenges [3] Company Earnings Reports - DoorDash (DASH) reported Q1 earnings of 44 cents per share, beating estimates by 10%, but revenues of $3.03 billion fell short by nearly 2%. The company announced acquisitions of Deliveroo for $3.9 billion and SevenRooms for $1.2 billion [3] - Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) reported earnings of 70 cents per share, slightly beating estimates but significantly lower than the $1.46 per share from the previous year. Revenues of $20.18 billion missed expectations by 2.5% [4] - Marriott International (MAR) reported Q1 earnings of $2.32 per share, exceeding estimates by 5 cents, with revenues of $6.26 billion, which was slightly below expectations but an increase from $5.98 billion a year ago [5] Market Expectations - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is underway, with no expected changes to the Fed funds rate, which has been stable in the 4.25-4.50% range since December [6][7] - The U.S. dollar has shown some instability due to new global trade realities, but bond yields remain stable, indicating no immediate pressure for rate changes [8] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Upcoming earnings reports include Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Electronic Arts (EA), and Wynn Resorts (WYNN), with The Walt Disney Company (DIS) reporting the following day [9]