🚨 NEW: Fundstrat's Tom Lee says the Fed cut is beneficial for business confidence, housing, and non-cash assets, identifying winners as small-cap financials, crypto including $BTC and $ETH, and MAG7 among others. https://t.co/07l2ZNsqqb ...

Group 1 - Mortgage rates have dropped to a three-year low, but there is uncertainty about future increases [1] - Historically, Fed cuts during a recession lower the 10-year Treasury yield, but current conditions do not follow this trend [1] - The market may experience volatility as investors could buy on rumors and sell on news [2] Group 2 - A potential sell-off in the 10-year Treasury is expected after the Fed announces a 25 basis point cut [3] - Current mortgage rates between 5.5% and 6.5% in commercial real estate are seen as positive for borrowers [3]

Market Performance & Fed Policy Expectations - The market has already priced in a significant amount of exuberance, with the S&P 500 up almost 10% and the NASDAQ up almost 12% following a V-shaped recovery [1] - Markets have priced in more Fed easing than is currently reflected in Fed fund futures, which could be a cause for concern [4] - The market is questioning whether it is pricing in too much Fed easing, considering inflation numbers [5] Inflation & Economic Concerns - CPI data indicates persistent goods inflation and sticky services inflation, suggesting a higher inflation paradigm than the Fed desires [3] - A weakening jobs market coupled with rising inflation creates a challenging environment for consumers already facing increased prices due to tariffs and trade war uncertainty [6] - Jobless claims have reached a four-year high, the worst since October 2021 [8] - The current Fed policy of maintaining rates may be contributing to higher prices, particularly in shelter costs, which constitute a third of the CPI [9][10] Impact of Rate Cuts & Capex - A rate-cutting cycle could weaken the dollar and provide a tailwind for the stock market [7] - Significant capital expenditure (capex) has matched the consumer's contribution to two-thirds of GDP, acting as a substantial tailwind [7] - A pullback in capex and a weakening consumer could lead to a recession [8]

Nomination of Steven Myron - Senate Banking Committee approved Steven Myron as the next Fed Governor with a 13-11 vote [1] - All Republicans voted in favor, while all Democrats voted against [1] - There is a possibility for a final vote before the next Fed meeting [2] Concerns and Arguments - Concerns were raised about Myron's dual role and independence due to his leave of absence from the White House [3] - Democrats were swayed by the dual role concern to vote against him [3] - Republicans believe his short tenure mitigates any potential problems [4] Market Outlook - A Fed rate cut is anticipated next week [4]

Market Trends & Sentiment - Tech sector performance is bifurcated, with Alphabet and Apple leading while the rest of the complex lags, indicating potential dispersion in investor sentiment [1][3][4] - Energy and materials sectors have been leading recently, though their impact is limited due to the large size of the tech sector, suggesting a healthy rotation [3] - Large-cap stocks are favored over small-cap stocks [4] Economic Outlook & Jobs Report - The worst of the economy was likely a couple of months prior, coinciding with tariff uncertainties [12] - A jobs report significantly above or below the estimated 75,000 by 10,000 could trigger a market move [11][12] - A much better than expected jobs report might reduce expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts [13] - The Federal Reserve is still expected to cut rates in the coming weeks, but potentially not as many times as anticipated over the next 16 months [13] Market Performance & Seasonality - S&P typically pulls back about 2% on average in September based on the last decade's data, indicating seasonality [6] - After the S&P has been up over 25% over 100 days, the average return after one month is 1%, and after three months is approximately 6% [6] - Historically, three months after a similar market condition, the market has been higher 11 out of 11 times, and a year later, up an average of 13% [7] - The strength seen off the lows is inconsistent with a bear market [8] Bond Market & Credit Conditions - The 30-year yield is up around 5%, the highest in a long time, with long-term yields breaking out [9] - Credit markets are showing virtually no signs of stress, with no warnings in high yield or junk bonds, and credit spreads not broadening out [9][10]

Let's bring in SoFi's Liz Thomas and RS Asset Management's Carrie Firestone who as you see are here at Post 9 as well. Well, ladies, nice to see you. Nice to see you, too.Liz, what do you think about what you just heard. I think it sounds pretty optimistic and I got to say I too much so. No, not too much.So I I think you have to take a long-term view in order to hop on that optimistic train at this point not only in the year but at this level of valuations at this point where we're waiting for so much data ...

Bitcoin, ETH bounce as US inflation cools, boosting odds of September Fed cut https://t.co/xKT0Jfkql5 ...