Market Reaction to Economic Data - Initial limited market reaction to hot PPI and tame claims data [1] - Market opinion diverges from Fed speak, prioritizing job numbers over inflation data [3][4] - Dollar index slid after weak jobs report and failed to recover, indicating market sentiment [4] Interest Rate Expectations - Two and ten-year Treasury yields initially rose following the hot PPI data, increasing by approximately 005% to 006% [2] - Market anticipates a rate cut in September, based on Fed fund futures [5] - Fed fund futures pricing of 55% or higher three to five sessions before a meeting typically leads the Fed to align with market expectations [4] Jobs Report Impact - Poor jobs report for July, including negative revisions, had a significant impact on the market [3] - Market reaction to the jobs report was more pronounced than the reaction to inflation data [3]

Inflation Data Analysis - Headline CPI came in below expectations at 27%, while core CPI, excluding food and energy, was higher than anticipated at 31% [1] - Markets focused on the headline CPI number, leading to an equities rally and a drop in 2-year yields [2] Monetary Policy Outlook - Weak unemployment data reported on August 1st raised concerns about disinflation [2] - Prior to the CPI release, Fed funds futures priced in an 82% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the September 17th FOMC meeting [3] - Post CPI release, the probability of a 25 basis point cut at the September 17th FOMC meeting surged past 90%, with markets pricing in 60 basis points of easing by the end of 2025 [3] - PPI data on August 14th and retail sales data on August 15th are expected to provide a clearer picture of the Fed's coming moves [3]