Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a significant and rapid decline, with domestic gold prices dropping from 1240 CNY/gram to a low of 1099 CNY/gram within two days, marking a daily drop of over 10% [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The decline is not isolated, as the international market also faced turmoil, with London spot gold falling nearly 450 USD/ounce after reaching a historical high of 5600 USD/ounce, resulting in a maximum daily drop of over 8% [3] - The market is undergoing a systemic sell-off in the precious metals sector, affecting New York futures and Shanghai gold futures [3] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The core trigger for this downturn is the shift in Federal Reserve policy, which has signaled a hawkish stance, significantly reducing the probability of interest rate cuts in the first half of the year, thus breaking previous market expectations for easing [5] - The strong rebound of the US dollar index and rising US Treasury yields have diminished the value of gold as a non-yielding asset, highlighting the "see-saw" effect between the dollar and gold [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The market was due for a correction after a substantial increase in gold prices, which rose over 30% since the beginning of the year, with the daily RSI indicator exceeding 90, indicating extreme overbought conditions [7] - The breach of key support levels triggered a chain reaction of stop-loss orders and leveraged liquidations, leading to a rapid decline in gold prices [7] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has shifted dramatically, with previous scenes of consumers eagerly purchasing gold bars and jewelry now replaced by a cautious and fearful outlook, as retail gold prices dropped nearly 100 CNY in a single day [9] - Investors are torn between the decision to buy the dip or remain on the sidelines, with leveraged traders facing significant losses and frequent short-term liquidations [9] Group 5: Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that this decline is a technical correction rather than the end of a gold bull market, as global inflation remains sticky and geopolitical tensions have not fully eased, preserving gold's safe-haven and anti-inflation attributes [11] - Ordinary investors are advised against blindly buying the dip, emphasizing the need to control positions and gradually enter the market, while long-term investors should consider their risk tolerance and diversify their entry points [11] Group 6: Future Considerations - The precious metals market is undergoing volatility, and rationality is emphasized as a key investment principle, with a focus on monitoring Federal Reserve policy, dollar index trends, and non-farm inflation data to navigate market dynamics [12]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is currently experiencing a bullish trend, with prices around $4321.29 per ounce, influenced by upcoming central bank decisions and economic data releases [1][4]. Economic Data and Market Reactions - The U.S. government shutdown has created a data vacuum, making the upcoming employment and inflation reports crucial for understanding the economic landscape [2]. - Predictions indicate that the U.S. may add 50,000 jobs in November, while the unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, the highest since 2021 [2]. - WisdomTree's Kevin Flanagan suggests that the importance of the employment data may be diminished due to the government shutdown, focusing instead on data available before the Federal Reserve's January policy decision [2]. Federal Reserve's Policy Outlook - There is a heated debate in the U.S. Treasury market regarding the future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with some analysts believing that the easing cycle is nearing its end [2][3]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the benchmark interest rate is within a "broad range of neutral estimates," suggesting limited room for further easing [3]. - Disagreements among officials regarding policy direction are evident, with some advocating for a wait-and-see approach until more data is available [3]. Gold Market Analysis - Last week, gold prices showed a strong upward trend, with significant fluctuations and a final closing that reflected increased market volatility [4]. - The price action indicates a battle between bulls and bears at high levels, with notable resistance encountered around the $4354 mark [4]. - Key support levels are identified between $4255 and $4265, which, if maintained, could allow for continued upward momentum in gold prices [4].