Group 1 - President Trump has announced Kevin Worsh as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, as confirmed through a post on Truth Social [1][2] - Jerome Powell's term as chairman is set to expire in May, prompting the need for a new appointment [2] - Other finalists for the role included Kevin Hasset, Christopher Waller, and Rick Reer, but Worsh has been selected [4] Group 2 - The announcement of the new chairman is expected to be made publicly, with details on the White House schedule pending [3] - The appointment of the new chairman will require confirmation [5]

Core Viewpoint - Rick Rieder, a BlackRock executive, is emerging as a strong candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, favored by President Trump for his impressive qualifications and views on interest rates [1]. Group 1: Candidate Profile - Rick Rieder has been described as "very impressive" by President Trump following an interview for the Fed chair position [1]. - Rieder advocates for cutting interest rates but is not perceived as a threat to the Federal Reserve's independence from political influence [1]. Group 2: Market Predictions - Two weeks prior, Rieder was seen as an outlier in the race for the Federal Reserve leadership, but he is now viewed as the most likely successor to Jerome Powell according to prediction markets [1].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Jerome Powell's tenure as chair of the Federal Reserve, suggesting that Powell's continued presence on the Board of Governors could lead to an unhappy experience for him [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Trump administration has intensified its scrutiny of Powell, including issuing subpoenas related to a potential criminal investigation into the Fed's renovation of its headquarters, which Powell has labeled as political pressure [2][4]. - If Powell remains on the Board after his term as chair ends in May, he would maintain significant influence over monetary policy decisions [4][6]. - Powell's continued presence would also prevent Trump from appointing a new chair unless another current governor is selected, which would require the White House to fill the position currently held by Governor Stephen Miran [6]. Group 2: Search for New Chair - Trump's search for a new Fed chair is reportedly narrowing, with the president indicating that he has reduced the list of candidates to potentially one [7]. - The final contenders for the position include Rick Rieder from BlackRock, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and former governor Kevin Warsh [8][9]. - Hassett was initially seen as the frontrunner, but Trump has expressed concerns about losing a key economic policy messenger if Hassett were to move to the Fed [8][10]. Group 3: Confirmation Challenges - The ongoing subpoenas from the Trump administration may complicate the confirmation process for any new Fed chair nominee, with Senator Thom Tillis indicating he will oppose any nomination until the investigation is resolved [10]. - Trump has downplayed these concerns, suggesting that Tillis's political future is uncertain as he is not seeking reelection [10].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is close to finalizing a candidate to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, indicating a significant shift in leadership at the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Candidate Selection - The search for a new Fed Chair has narrowed from 11 candidates to potentially one, with Trump suggesting he has a preferred candidate in mind [2]. - Finalists for the position include Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, current Governor Christopher Waller, National Economic Council chief Kevin Hassett, and BlackRock's Rick Rieder, with Rieder receiving particular praise from Trump [3]. Current Fed Chair Situation - Trump's preference for Hassett to remain at the National Economic Council likely removes him from consideration for the Fed Chair position [4]. - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent led the interview process, although Trump has previously indicated support for Bessent to take the Fed job, he noted Bessent prefers to stay in his current role [4]. Powell's Future - With Powell's removal as chair appearing imminent, questions arise regarding whether he will remain in his role as governor for another two years, which would allow him to influence monetary policy and interest rates [6]. - Trump expressed indifference about Powell's decision to stay or leave, suggesting that Powell's tenure has not been satisfactory [6][7]. Criticism of Powell - Trump has been critical of Powell's management, particularly regarding a renovation project at the Fed headquarters that has exceeded $2.5 billion, claiming he could have completed it for $25 million [7].

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon has ruled out any possibility of leading the Federal Reserve but is open to considering the role of Secretary of the Treasury if approached by the President [1][2]. Group 1: Dimon's Position on Federal Reserve and Treasury - Dimon stated there is "positively no chance" he would serve as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, even if asked by a U.S. President [2]. - He expressed willingness to consider the Secretary of the Treasury position, emphasizing the importance of the nature and structure of the role in his decision-making process [3]. - Dimon enjoys his current role at JPMorgan, having been his own boss for approximately 25 years, indicating a preference for his existing position [3]. Group 2: Political Context and Speculation - During an APEC meeting, Dimon addressed rumors regarding a potential Cabinet position, noting that President Trump had praised him but indicated he would not be chosen as Treasury Secretary [4]. - Reports suggest that President Trump has already made a decision regarding the next Federal Reserve chair, with the announcement expected soon [4][7]. - Prediction markets indicate that Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh are frontrunners for the Federal Reserve chair position, with odds of 36% and 44%, respectively [5].

Group 1 - The bond market has significant influence over U.S. government decisions, as evidenced by a recent spike in bond yields that led President Trump to pause tariffs [2][3] - President Trump is considering Kevin Hassett, a top economic aide, as a potential nominee to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with bond investors closely monitoring the situation [3][4] - Bond yields rose by 0.1% in early December, reflecting bond traders' recognition of Hassett as the frontrunner for the Fed position [4] Group 2 - Concerns have been raised regarding Hassett's potential to blur the lines between the Federal Reserve and the executive branch, with bond investors warning against his nomination [6] - Hassett has criticized the central bank for allowing political factors to interfere with interest rate decisions, indicating a contentious relationship with the Fed [7] - The bond market remains relatively stable, with ten-year Treasury yields currently at 4.14%, suggesting no immediate concerns about significant market disruptions [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller had a strong interview for the Fed chair position with President Trump, focusing on the labor market and job creation [1][4]. Group 1: Interview Details - The interview took place at the president's residence and included Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, chief of staff Susie Wiles, and deputy chief of staff Dan Scavino [2]. - Blackrock's Rick Rieder is scheduled for an interview for the Fed chair position in the last week of the year, while Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is no longer a candidate [2]. Group 2: Candidate Evaluation - National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh have also been interviewed by Trump for the Fed chair position [3]. - The conversation with Waller aimed to dispel concerns that Trump was seeking a candidate who would simply follow his directives on interest rates, indicating a broader interest in economic issues [4]. Group 3: Presidential Remarks - Trump expressed that the Fed Chair should consult with him on interest rates, emphasizing that while he should be listened to, he does not expect the chair to follow his directives exactly [5]. - Trump praised Waller during a press interaction, highlighting his long-standing involvement with him and his previous nomination to the Fed [5]. Group 4: Ongoing Process - Despite the positive feedback regarding Waller, there is no indication that he is the leading candidate, and the interview process is ongoing, suggesting that a decision has not yet been made [6]. - Trump indicated that he would soon announce the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, who he believes should advocate for significantly lower interest rates [6].

Core Viewpoint - The race for the next Federal Reserve chair is narrowing down to two candidates: Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, with Warsh gaining ground on Hassett as the preferred choice by the president [1][3]. Candidate Profiles - Kevin Warsh is perceived as more hawkish compared to Kevin Hassett, who is seen as closely aligned with the president's views [4]. - Both candidates will join a Federal Reserve that already has members appointed by previous administrations, which may limit their influence in the short term [5]. Upcoming Events - The first Federal Reserve meeting with the new chair is scheduled for June 17, which is anticipated to significantly impact market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, with odds shifting from 20% to 50% for a rate cut in June [6]. Potential Changes to the Federal Reserve - There are discussions about the possibility of changing the makeup of regional Fed presidents, which would require congressional action [7][8]. - The administration's ability to further influence the Federal Reserve may depend on ongoing legal cases regarding the president's authority to appoint and remove governors [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon expressed support for Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the U.S. central bank, indicating a potential shift in leadership direction at the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - Jamie Dimon, a prominent figure in the banking industry, is advocating for Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve Governor, to take on the role of chair of the U.S. central bank [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is expected to appoint a new Federal Reserve chair to replace Jerome Powell, with Kevin Hasset currently seen as the frontrunner for the position [1][2][18]. Group 1: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - The shortlist for the Federal Reserve chair includes Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Fed Governor Kevin Worsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset, and BlackRock's head of fixed income Rick Reer [1]. - Kevin Hasset, as National Economic Council Director, emphasizes Fed independence and sound monetary policies, advocating for interest rates to align with economic conditions [2][4]. - Kevin Worsh, previously a Fed governor, is viewed as a top candidate and has criticized the Fed's recent policy decisions, arguing for lower interest rates and a smaller Fed balance sheet [5][7][9]. - Christopher Waller, a current Fed Board member, supports cutting interest rates and believes inflation is close to the Fed's 2% goal, citing limited effects from tariffs [10][13][14]. - Michelle Bowman, also a Fed Board member, shares views with the Trump administration on the need for lower interest rates and has proposed three rate cuts for the year [24][25][28]. - Rick Reer, head of fixed income at BlackRock, believes the Fed should cut rates and has expressed concerns about labor market displacement [30][32][33]. Group 2: Perspectives on Monetary Policy - Hasset has criticized the Fed for its handling of inflation and interest rates, suggesting that the Fed's decisions have been influenced by partisan considerations [3][4]. - Worsh argues that inflation is primarily caused by excessive government spending rather than economic growth, and he believes the Fed's current policies are hindering economic progress [7][8][9]. - Waller's analysis indicates that the job market's weakness is a more pressing concern than inflation, advocating for a cautious approach to rate cuts [13][14]. - Bowman's stance on Fed independence is that it is crucial for effective monetary policy, while also advocating for transparency and accountability in the Fed's decisions [29].