President Donald Trump has choreographed a reality TV-like process in picking the next chair of the Federal Reserve. Another less-visible interviewer has a say in the process as well: Bond investors. The bond market demonstrated its enduring influence over the U.S. government when a spike in bond yields compelled Trump to pause his "Liberation Day" tariffs in April. He'd acknowledged investors had gotten "a little queasy" after a sell-off pushed yields on 10- and 30-year Treasury notes up by half a percen ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller had a strong interview for the Fed chair position with President Trump, focusing on the labor market and job creation [1][4]. Group 1: Interview Details - The interview took place at the president's residence and included Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, chief of staff Susie Wiles, and deputy chief of staff Dan Scavino [2]. - Blackrock's Rick Rieder is scheduled for an interview for the Fed chair position in the last week of the year, while Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is no longer a candidate [2]. Group 2: Candidate Evaluation - National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh have also been interviewed by Trump for the Fed chair position [3]. - The conversation with Waller aimed to dispel concerns that Trump was seeking a candidate who would simply follow his directives on interest rates, indicating a broader interest in economic issues [4]. Group 3: Presidential Remarks - Trump expressed that the Fed Chair should consult with him on interest rates, emphasizing that while he should be listened to, he does not expect the chair to follow his directives exactly [5]. - Trump praised Waller during a press interaction, highlighting his long-standing involvement with him and his previous nomination to the Fed [5]. Group 4: Ongoing Process - Despite the positive feedback regarding Waller, there is no indication that he is the leading candidate, and the interview process is ongoing, suggesting that a decision has not yet been made [6]. - Trump indicated that he would soon announce the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, who he believes should advocate for significantly lower interest rates [6].

It appears the race for the next Fed chair is down to two. While talking to the Wall Street Journal, the president named Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh as his top two choices. Policy, policy market, I should say.Poorly market odds had Hassett as the clear front runner. But Warsh is closing the gap considerably. Here with me now is Michael McKee Bloomberg International economics and policy correspondent.And I, I know mystery is a big part of the strategy of this administration, but previously the president sa ...

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon expressed support for Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the U.S. central bank, indicating a potential shift in leadership direction at the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - Jamie Dimon, a prominent figure in the banking industry, is advocating for Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve Governor, to take on the role of chair of the U.S. central bank [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is expected to appoint a new Federal Reserve chair to replace Jerome Powell, with Kevin Hasset currently seen as the frontrunner for the position [1][2][18]. Group 1: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - The shortlist for the Federal Reserve chair includes Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Fed Governor Kevin Worsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset, and BlackRock's head of fixed income Rick Reer [1]. - Kevin Hasset, as National Economic Council Director, emphasizes Fed independence and sound monetary policies, advocating for interest rates to align with economic conditions [2][4]. - Kevin Worsh, previously a Fed governor, is viewed as a top candidate and has criticized the Fed's recent policy decisions, arguing for lower interest rates and a smaller Fed balance sheet [5][7][9]. - Christopher Waller, a current Fed Board member, supports cutting interest rates and believes inflation is close to the Fed's 2% goal, citing limited effects from tariffs [10][13][14]. - Michelle Bowman, also a Fed Board member, shares views with the Trump administration on the need for lower interest rates and has proposed three rate cuts for the year [24][25][28]. - Rick Reer, head of fixed income at BlackRock, believes the Fed should cut rates and has expressed concerns about labor market displacement [30][32][33]. Group 2: Perspectives on Monetary Policy - Hasset has criticized the Fed for its handling of inflation and interest rates, suggesting that the Fed's decisions have been influenced by partisan considerations [3][4]. - Worsh argues that inflation is primarily caused by excessive government spending rather than economic growth, and he believes the Fed's current policies are hindering economic progress [7][8][9]. - Waller's analysis indicates that the job market's weakness is a more pressing concern than inflation, advocating for a cautious approach to rate cuts [13][14]. - Bowman's stance on Fed independence is that it is crucial for effective monetary policy, while also advocating for transparency and accountability in the Fed's decisions [29].

Wall Street bosses and corporate CEOs alike have launched a last-ditch effort to persuade President Trump not to pick Kevin Hassett as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve – but they aren’t making any big bets they’ll succeed, On The Money has learned.Like all things involving Trump, the president is rarely moved by outside pressure and generally operates from the gut. And in his gut, it’s pretty clear he wants Hassett, the current chief of the National Economic Council, to replace Jerome Powell.The pre ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as chair of the Federal Reserve by President Donald Trump may bring certainty to markets but could also lead to increased volatility [1] Group 1 - President Donald Trump is likely to choose Kevin Hassett as the next chair of the Federal Reserve [1] - The identification of the next central bank chief provides some level of certainty for market participants [1] - The announcement may also result in market volatility despite the certainty it brings [1]

Core Insights - The race for the next Federal Reserve chair is competitive, with Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Chris Waller as leading candidates, all of whom have shown a focus on price stability while also responding to President Trump's demands for rate cuts [2][3][5][6] Candidate Profiles - **Kevin Hassett**: Currently the National Economic Council Director, he emphasizes Fed independence and sound monetary policies. He has criticized the Fed's past decisions and supports a significant rate cut in December [7][10][11] - **Kevin Warsh**: A former Fed governor, he has been critical of the Fed's current policies and argues for a reevaluation of inflation forecasts, suggesting that AI will positively impact productivity and reduce inflation [20][21][23] - **Chris Waller**: Currently a Fed governor, he supports rate cuts due to concerns about the job market and believes inflation is close to the Fed's target of 2% [12][13][14] Market Implications - The potential nomination of a candidate inclined towards lower interest rates could lead to a more dovish Federal Reserve, which may influence market expectations and economic conditions [26][27] - The emphasis on loyalty to President Trump as a criterion for the Fed chair raises concerns about the independence of the central bank, which could have significant implications for monetary policy and market reactions [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve chair is seen as aligning closely with the administration's dovish stance on interest rates, which contrasts with the current consensus within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [1][2][5] Group 1: Nomination and Market Perception - Kevin Hassett is perceived by markets as a candidate who shares the administration's views on interest rates, which are more dovish compared to the current FOMC consensus [1][2] - The administration is likely to seek a candidate who is respected by markets and maintains central bank independence while also aligning with the president's policies [5][6] Group 2: Challenges and Considerations - If Hassett is appointed, he will face challenges in convincing other FOMC members to adopt his views on lowering interest rates, as the committee operates through a democratic process [4] - The administration's goal of lowering interest rates is seen as a potential constraint on the economy, raising questions about the feasibility of achieving this objective without triggering inflation concerns [6][7] - There is a risk that even if the Fed funds rate decreases, longer-term Treasury yields could rise due to market concerns about inflation and credibility, indicating that rate cuts may not lead to lower long-term yields [8]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent anticipates that President Trump will announce the new Federal Reserve chair by the holiday season, indicating progress in the selection process [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Succession - Bessent is leading the search for a successor to current Chair Jerome Powell and has one interview remaining [2]. - There is a strong possibility that an announcement will be made before Christmas, although the final decision rests with the President [2]. - Trump has expressed a desire to fire Powell and has encouraged Bessent to influence the Fed to lower interest rates [2][3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Context - Bessent noted that monetary policy has become increasingly complex, suggesting that it involves more than just cutting interest rates [3]. - Trump humorously remarked about the urgency of addressing monetary policy issues, indicating the pressure on Bessent to deliver results [3].