Mortgage Rates Overview - The average interest rate for a 30-year home loan in the U.S. is currently 6.16%, slightly up from 6.15% last week, but still near the lowest level in 2025 [1][9] - One year ago, the 30-year mortgage rate was significantly higher at 6.93%, indicating a downward trend in rates over time [9] - The 15-year mortgage rate has also increased slightly to 5.46%, compared to 5.44% last week, and was 6.14% a year ago [9] Factors Influencing Mortgage Rates - Mortgage rates are influenced by various factors, including decisions made by the Federal Reserve, inflation, and bond market activities [2][9] - The Federal Reserve does not set mortgage rates directly, but its actions, such as cutting short-term rates, can lead to lower inflation and slower growth, which in turn affects mortgage rates [2][10] - Increased bond buying can lower long-term Treasury yields, subsequently reducing mortgage rates [10] Home Sales Trends - The average 30-year mortgage rate ended the previous year nearly one percentage point lower than at the start of 2025, which has positively impacted homebuyers' purchasing power [4][10] - Home sales of existing U.S. homes saw month-to-month increases in September, October, and November, although November sales were lower than the previous year for the first time since May [4][10] - The market is projected to finish the year lower than 2024 levels, with December existing home sales data to be released soon [5][10] Housing Affordability - The median U.S. monthly housing payment has decreased to $2,365, which is 4.7% lower than a year ago [5][6][10] - Despite lower mortgage rates, high home prices and stagnant wage growth continue to hinder many potential buyers, particularly first-time homebuyers who lack down payment funds [6][10] - Economic concerns and job market uncertainties are causing many individuals to delay home purchases [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF is highlighted as a strong investment option for income- and value-seeking investors, especially in a potentially volatile stock market environment in 2026 [12][19]. Market Overview - The stock market has shown significant gains year-to-date, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite increasing by 13%, 14%, and 18% respectively as of December 17 [1]. - The current stock market is considered the second priciest in history, with concerns about sustainability as it approaches 2026 [2]. Valuation Metrics - The S&P 500's Shiller P/E Ratio, a key valuation metric, is currently at 39.59, which is 129% above its 155-year average of 17.32 [8]. - Historically, when the Shiller P/E has exceeded 30, it has been followed by significant declines in major indices [9][10]. ETF Performance and Strategy - The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF aims to mirror the total returns of the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index and includes 103 established companies [14]. - The ETF offers a yield of approximately 3.8%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's yield of 1.12% [17]. - The average trailing 12-month P/E ratio for the companies in the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF is 17.18, compared to the S&P 500's 25.63 [18]. Investment Characteristics - The ETF is characterized by low management fees, with a net expense ratio of 0.06%, making it cost-effective for investors [17]. - The focus on high-quality dividend stocks has historically provided better returns and lower volatility compared to non-dividend payers [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut does not directly lead to a decrease in mortgage rates, which are more closely aligned with the long-term 10-year Treasury yield rather than the federal funds rate [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's third consecutive rate cut in 2025 has lowered the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%, primarily due to a weakening jobs market [2]. - The Fed has indicated that further rate cuts are on hold, projecting only one quarter-percentage-point cut in 2026 as it aims to control inflation and maximize employment [2]. Group 2: Mortgage Rate Trends - Following the Fed's rate cut, the national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased to 6.3% on Wednesday, down from 6.35% on Tuesday, and further fell to 6.26% on Thursday [3]. - Despite the Fed's rate cuts, current mortgage rates have increased from 6.13% in late October [3]. Group 3: Economic Context - The Trump administration's trade war and tariffs are expected to slow economic growth and maintain elevated inflation levels, with tariffs resulting in an average tax increase of $1,100 per household in 2025 and $1,400 in 2026 [5]. - Experts caution that lowering the federal funds rate could lead to negative economic consequences, such as higher unemployment and job losses, which may deter consumers from committing to large financial decisions like mortgages [6]. Group 4: Factors Influencing Mortgage Rates - Mortgage rates are influenced by various economic factors, including the jobs market, inflation, geopolitical events, lender capacity, and borrower demand, rather than solely by the Fed's control over short-term interest rates [7].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has led to a muted reaction in mortgage rates, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate remaining flat at 6.43% and slightly dipping to 6.39% [2][10] - The current mortgage rates are near their lowest levels since October 2024, having recently hit a 14-month low of 6.34% [3][10] - Mortgage rates do not always move in tandem with the Fed's actions, as they are influenced by a broader set of factors including inflation expectations, housing demand, and the overall economic outlook [5][10] Mortgage Rate Dynamics - The bond market, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield, is the primary driver of 30-year mortgage rates, which can lead to independent movements from the Fed's rate changes [6][7] - Historical examples show that mortgage rates can rise even when the Fed cuts rates, as seen in late 2024 when rates surged despite a full percentage point cut by the Fed [7][10] Implications for Homebuyers and Homeowners - Homebuyers are advised to proceed with purchases when financially ready, as timing the mortgage market is nearly impossible and waiting for ideal conditions may result in missed opportunities [11][12] - The outlook for mortgage rates suggests stability, with projections indicating rates will hover in the low-6% range through 2026, reducing the likelihood of significant declines [12] - Existing homeowners considering refinancing should evaluate whether the new rate sufficiently offsets refinancing costs, particularly if their current mortgage rates are in the high-7% or 8% range [13][14]

Market Overview - Global equities showed resilience after four days of gains, driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more quickly than previously anticipated [1] - The MSCI All Country World Index reduced its November decline to 0.4%, recovering from a nearly 4% drop earlier in the month [1] - US markets were closed for Thanksgiving, while European and Asian benchmarks experienced modest movements [1] Investor Sentiment - There is a noticeable return of risk appetite, as evidenced by Bitcoin trading above $91,000 for the first time in a week [2] - Gold prices fluctuated, and the US dollar paused its two-day decline [2] Federal Reserve Expectations - Money markets are pricing in an approximately 80% chance of a quarter-point interest rate cut next month, with expectations for three additional cuts by the end of 2026 [3] - This marks a shift from just over a week ago when traders anticipated only three cuts in total [3] - The market sentiment reflects renewed optimism following concerns over high tech valuations that previously impacted equities [3] Year-End Rally Outlook - EFG Asset Management Switzerland's CEO expressed optimism for a classic year-end rally, supported by a stable macro environment and a decent corporate earnings outlook [4] - The anticipated lagged effects of rate cuts are expected to provide additional support to the market [4] Regional Market Performance - Japanese and South Korean equities outperformed their regional counterparts, with technology shares leading the gains [4] - In Europe, Germany's DAX index increased by 0.3%, driven by a 13% rise in Puma SE due to takeover interest from multiple bidders [4] UK Market Reaction - UK gilts experienced a pullback after a rally following the Autumn budget, where the Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a larger fiscal buffer [5] - Despite the positive sentiment, the tax-raising measures introduced may overshadow economic growth prospects [5] - The pound and FTSE 100 remained relatively unchanged [5] Fiscal Policy Insights - ABN AMRO's head of macro research noted that the UK government took necessary steps to maintain bond market confidence, despite risks associated with the fiscal consolidation [6] - The current measures build upon previous significant efforts in fiscal policy [6]

Core Insights - CSB Bancorp, Inc. reported a net income of $4,151,000 for Q3 2025, an increase from $3,145,000 in Q3 2024, reflecting strong financial performance [1] - The company experienced a 49% increase in net income for the nine-month period ending September 30, 2025, totaling $11,494,000 compared to $7,693,000 in the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - Annualized returns on average common equity (ROE) and average assets (ROA) for Q3 2025 were 13.19% and 1.31%, respectively, up from 11.14% and 1.05% in Q3 2024 [2] - Pre-Provision Net Revenue (PPNR) for the quarter was $5.7 million, a 23% increase from the previous year [2] - Net interest income rose by $1.7 million, or 19%, while noninterest income increased by $57,000, or 3% [2] Economic Context - The U.S. economy grew by approximately 3% in Q3 2025, with inflation remaining around 3% [3] - National unemployment is at about 4.5%, with job growth slowing, prompting the Federal Reserve to lower short-term interest rates [3] - The local economy appears stable, with total loan balances up 10% since the beginning of the year, driven by construction and business investments [3] Credit Quality - Provision for credit loss expense decreased by $199,000 from Q3 2024, as nonperforming loans continued to decline [4] - The allowance for credit losses (ACL) was $8.7 million, or 1.08% of total loans, compared to $7.2 million, or 1.00% a year earlier [5] - Nonperforming loans were $746,000, or 0.09% of total loans, down from $3.4 million, or 0.47% a year ago [14] Loan and Deposit Trends - Loan interest income increased by $1.6 million, or 15%, due to an $80 million volume increase in loans [6] - Average deposit balances rose by $52 million, or 5%, with the average cost of deposits decreasing to 1.34% from 1.48% [15] - Average commercial loan balances increased by $63 million, or 13%, while residential mortgage balances rose by $14 million, or 8% [13] Shareholder Information - Shareholders' equity totaled $125 million as of September 30, 2025, with an average equity to assets ratio of 9.96% [16] - The company declared a third-quarter dividend of $0.41 per share, yielding an annualized rate of 3.3% based on the closing price of $49.50 [17] Company Overview - CSB Bancorp, Inc. is a financial holding company based in Millersburg, Ohio, with approximately $1.2 billion in assets as of September 30, 2025 [18]