Key Takeaways The job market improved by one measure but stayed relatively slow in December. U.S. employers added 50,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.4% from a downwardly-revised 4.5% in November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday. The relatively slow job growth was slightly below the downwardly-revised 56,000 added in November, and was less than the 73,000 jobs forecasters had expected. Additionally, the unemployment rate was lower than the 4.5% forecast according to ...

Market Performance - US stock futures dipped early Wednesday, with Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all slipping around 0.2% [1] - The S&P 500 is up over 17% this year, marking its sixth year of 15%-plus gains in the last seven years [2] - The Nasdaq Composite has risen over 20%, while the Dow is up over 13% [2] Challenges Faced - The Nasdaq briefly entered a bear market over eight months ago, and the S&P was close to entering one after significant tariffs were imposed by President Trump [3] - Despite challenges, including tariff concerns and geopolitical developments, the market rebounded, driven by AI-fueled valuations [3] Future Outlook - Wall Street forecasters predict a continued stock rally for a fourth consecutive year in 2026, although risks such as a potential falter in the AI boom and economic surprises remain [4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate path is a key focus, with expectations that the Fed will maintain current rates in January [5]

Core Viewpoint - Mortgage rates have remained stable in a narrow range of 6.2% to 6.3%, with expectations that they will not change significantly in the near future [1][5]. Economic Context - The current economic situation features a weakening labor market alongside persistent inflation, complicating the outlook for mortgage rates [2][4]. - Government shutdowns have disrupted the release of key economic reports, limiting the ability to assess trends affecting mortgage rates [2][3]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has been cutting benchmark interest rates, but inflation remains above the 2% target, leading to a divided outlook among committee members regarding future interest rate direction [4][5]. - Economists predict only minor fluctuations in mortgage rates due to the mixed economic and policy environment [5][6]. Market Expectations - The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts mortgage rates to remain between 6% and 6.5% over the next few years, while other economists expect rates to average around 6.3% by 2026 [5]. - There is a consensus that substantial drops in mortgage rates are unlikely unless significant economic changes occur [6]. Market Dynamics - Mortgage rates typically begin to decline before the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, as seen in the past summer when rates fell despite the Fed's rate cuts [7].

The U.S. stock market observes a quiet Christmas Day on Thursday, December 25, 2025, with all major exchanges, including the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq, closed for the holiday. This pause follows a robust, holiday-shortened trading session on Wednesday, December 24, where major indexes continued their upward trajectory, reaching new record highs. Investors are now looking ahead to the reopening of markets on Friday, December 26, and the economic landscape that awaits in the final days of 2025 ...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell outlined how the central bank is viewing the labor market after it cut interest rates last week for the third straight time, with a fresh jobs report due out on Tuesday. Powell spoke at a press conference after Federal Reserve policymakers voted to lower the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, amid signs of a weakening labor market and emerging risks to the half of the Fed's dual mandate that focuses on promoting maximum employment ...

Core Insights - The dollar index fell from a 5.5-month high, closing down by -0.04% due to mixed economic signals from the US labor market and expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Labor Market Data - US September nonfarm payrolls increased by +119,000, significantly surpassing expectations of +51,000, indicating a stronger labor market [3] - The September unemployment rate unexpectedly rose by +0.1% to 4.4%, marking a nearly four-year high, which suggests some weakness in the labor market [3] - Weekly initial unemployment claims decreased by -8,000 to 220,000, better than the anticipated 227,000, reflecting a stronger labor market [2] - However, continuing claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest in four years, indicating challenges for those laid off in finding new employment [2] Economic Indicators - The average hourly earnings in September remained unchanged from August at +3.8% year-over-year, which was stronger than the expected +3.7% [3] - The November Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey increased by +11.1 to -1.7, but this was weaker than the expected +1.0 [3] - Existing home sales in October rose by +1.2% month-over-month to an 8-month high of 4.10 million, exceeding expectations of 4.08 million [4] Federal Reserve Commentary - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials were hawkish, indicating caution regarding interest rate cuts due to ongoing inflation concerns [5] - Cleveland Fed President expressed that lowering interest rates could prolong elevated inflation and encourage risk-taking in financial markets [5] - Chicago Fed President noted that inflation appears stalled or possibly rising, which raises concerns about preemptively cutting interest rates [5] - Fed Governor highlighted concerns about inflation remaining around 3%, emphasizing the need for caution in considering further interest rate cuts [5]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve implemented a quarter-point rate cut on September 17, with expectations for two additional cuts before the end of the year [1] - The long-standing interest rate pause has influenced deposits, credit, and debt, with potential implications for consumer finances [1] Group 2: Impact on Deposit Accounts - Checking accounts have an average interest rate of 0.07%, which may decrease further [3] - Savings accounts show a slight increase to an average of 0.40%, while high-yield savings accounts remain around 4% [4] - Money market accounts average 0.59%, but high-yield options are slightly above 4% [5] Group 3: Mortgage and Personal Loans - Mortgage rates have decreased since May but are unlikely to fall significantly due to bond market influences, with predictions of rates remaining above 6% through 2026 [7][8] - Personal loan rates have only slightly decreased from a peak of 12.49% to 11.57% for two-year loans, with expectations for further declines following Fed rate cuts [9] Group 4: Credit Card Interest Rates - Credit card interest rates have risen from around 15% in 2021 to over 21% in 2025, with potential for reductions if the prime rate decreases [11][12] Group 5: Investment Climate - Stock prices are affected by the Fed's rate actions, but broader economic and corporate profit trends should also be monitored for investment decisions [14]