The central bank's preferred inflation gauge is expected to show prices rose faster in December. ...

Newmont Corp (NYSE:NEM) shares are under pressure Tuesday as Lunar New Year market closures across Asia coincide with investor caution ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Here's what you should know today.Newmont stock is facing resistance. Why is NEM stock retreating?Pressure On Precious MetalsThe weakness follows an unusually volatile stretch for precious metals. Gold recently surged past $5,595 an ounce before collapsing toward $4,400 in just two days at the end of January.Focus Turns T ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The discussion revolves around the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy, particularly focusing on the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Fed Chair. Core Insights and Arguments - **Rate Cuts Expectation**: The nomination of Kevin Warsh does not alter the expectation for two additional rate cuts in the second half of 2026, driven by disinflation [5][7][9] - **Policy Framework Shift**: Any significant changes in the Fed's policy framework are anticipated to occur gradually through balance sheet policy rather than through interest rate adjustments [5][7][8] - **Volatility in Macro Markets**: A Federal Reserve led by Warsh is expected to allow for higher volatility and greater signaling qualities in macro markets, potentially steepening the yield curve due to a smaller Fed footprint [5][19][20] - **Balance Sheet Critique**: Warsh has criticized the Fed's balance sheet as "bloated" and advocates for a reduction to mitigate inflation risks and market distortions [10][12][13] - **Interest Rate Policy**: Warsh's views suggest that lower interest rates should accompany a smaller balance sheet, which he believes would enhance price stability and credit transmission [11][12] - **Regulatory Changes**: Warsh's preference for less regulation could positively impact MBS investors, particularly if there are changes to the Basel Endgame proposal that would lower risk weights for loans [33] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Investor Sentiment**: Surveys indicate that individual investors are more concerned about inflation than Fed policy, suggesting that the Fed's actions may not be a primary focus for retail investors [35][36] - **MBS Market Impact**: The likelihood of the Fed ending MBS run-off has decreased, and the bar for restarting QE, especially in MBS, is now higher [34] - **Future Fed Actions**: Speculation about the Fed's approach could influence the shape of the yield curve and swap spread curve until Warsh's intentions are publicly clarified [22][29] - **Communication Strategy**: A Warsh-led Fed may adopt fewer communications with the public, which could lead to more market-driven assessments of economic data and policy reactions [21][24] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the Federal Reserve's future under Kevin Warsh's potential leadership, focusing on monetary policy, market implications, and investor sentiment.

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh is set to take on the challenging role of chairman of the Federal Reserve, balancing his hawkish stance on inflation with the economic growth ambitions of President Trump [1][12]. Group 1: Background and Experience - Warsh has been preparing for his role at the Fed for decades, understanding the importance of maintaining low inflation while promoting strong employment [2]. - He previously served as a Fed governor during the 2008 financial crisis, playing a crucial role in stabilizing the economy [3]. - His experience as an investment banker at Morgan Stanley provides him with valuable insights into the financial sector's impact on the overall economy [3]. Group 2: Critique of Fed Policies - Warsh has criticized past Fed chairs for continuing to stimulate the economy through low interest rates and money printing, which he believes has led to runaway inflation [5][6]. - He has expressed concerns about the Fed's involvement in social issues and its deviation from its primary mandate of controlling inflation [7]. Group 3: Current Economic Context - Inflation has surged to 9%, significantly impacting the working class, and Warsh's warnings about inflation have become a reality [10]. - The Fed's previous policies under Jerome Powell have resulted in elevated prices, complicating the economic landscape for the incoming chairman [11]. Group 4: Warsh's Approach as Chairman - Warsh is expected to navigate the delicate balance of lowering short-term interest rates while reducing the Fed's balance sheet to control inflation [15]. - His strategy aims to appease both President Trump's desire for lower rates and the bond market's need for stability, particularly concerning the 10-year Treasury yields [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - Mortgage rates are expected to drift lower through 2026, but a dramatic decline is not anticipated [1] Current Rates - As of January 2026, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is between 6.09% and 6.19%, which is near a three-year low but still significantly higher than rates in the early 2020s [2] 2026 Forecast - The average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to be between 6.0% and 6.3% for 2026, with some optimistic projections suggesting rates could dip below 6% temporarily [3][4] Agency Predictions - Fannie Mae predicts rates will end 2026 around 5.9%, while the Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts closer to 6.4%. Other analysts estimate rates between 6.1% and 6.3%, indicating uncertainty in economic factors [4] Influencing Factors - Three main factors are influencing mortgage rate predictions: [5] - **Federal Reserve Policy**: Rate cuts in 2024 and 2025 have helped lower long-term rates, and if the Fed maintains or cuts rates in 2026, it could support small declines in mortgage costs. However, the 10-year Treasury bond yields remain high compared to pandemic lows [6] - **Inflation and Economic Conditions**: Moderating inflation could lead to lower rates, but strong job data or persistent inflation may keep rates higher. Economic surprises could quickly shift rate predictions [7]

In a week of stock market newsworthiness, the hits keep coming this Friday morning. President Trump’s new Fed Chair has been announced: former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. We also see a key wholesale inflation report hitting the tape for December, along with Big Oil companies reporting Q4 earnings results.Ahead of the opening bell, the Dow is -250 points, the S&P 500 is -35, the Nasdaq -180 and the small-cap Russell 2000 -30. This is a rather inauspicious start to the trading day, but we’re thus far flat for t ...

The US economy expanded at a solid pace last year and is coming into 2026 on a firm footing. In support of our goals today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy rate unchanged. Essentially, the economy has once again surprised us with its strength. >> That's true. Will enjoy it while it lasts. The Fed is pausing rate cuts for the first time since July, and President Trump isn't happy about it. writing on True Social that the Fed is hurting America and our national security and costi ...

No movement in home equity rates, as the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its first meeting of 2026. The $30,000 home equity line of credit and the five-year $30,000 home equity loan were flat for the week, remaining at 7.44% and 7.92%, respectively, according to Bankrate’s national survey of lenders. As home equity rates hover at a three-year-low, Bankrate’s senior industry analyst Ted Rossman explains why conditions are improving for home equity borrowers. “The current HELOC average, 7 ...

Investors are looking past headline inflation noise to drive a significant market shift. According to Professor Jeremy Siegel, the current rotation toward small-cap and value stocks is sustainable, supported by underlying economic resilience and the clear trajectory of Federal Reserve policy.Broadening MarketProfessor Siegel observes a notable rotation away from the largest growth names as earnings season begins, suggesting a healthier market advance is underway.Large-cap growth stocks have recently pulled ...

Core Insights - The US dollar ended the previous week softer, influenced by inflation signals, rising Treasury yields, and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve and the White House [1] - Mixed inflation data, with Core CPI undershooting expectations and PPI meeting them, did not significantly alter the Federal Reserve's near-term policy stance [2] - The breakout in the 10-year yield above 4.2% suggests a potential increase in long-term US yields, yet the dollar struggled to gain traction due to resilient equity sentiment and reduced geopolitical fears [3] Currency Performance - The New Zealand dollar led the G10 currencies, supported by strong domestic manufacturing data, while the Canadian dollar benefited from optimism regarding renewed trade engagement with China [4] - European currencies, particularly the Euro, Swiss Franc, and Sterling, performed poorly due to political issues and declining growth momentum [4] - The Yen traded unevenly, influenced by speculation over US-Japan FX intervention and expectations of further Bank of Japan tightening, but overall demand for safe havens remained low [5] Currency Pairs Analysis - GBP/AUD has weakened significantly, with expectations for the trend to continue lower, potentially testing the key level of 1.98820 [6][8] - EUR/NZD has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, with a baseline around 2.007; a break below this level could lead to a nearly 3% decline, testing the previous key level at 1.96225 [9][10] Market Outlook - Upcoming events, including the Davos summit and US-EU tensions over Greenland, are expected to create volatility in the Euro and Swiss Franc [11] - The acceleration of the equity earnings season, with results from major companies like Netflix and Intel, will shape risk sentiment and influence Dollar-sensitive carry trades [12] - The 10-year yield's movement above 4.2% will be closely monitored, as its trajectory could significantly impact the US dollar's performance against improving global risk appetite [13]