Listen and subscribe to Stocks In Translation on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcast. The US government is shut down. So what does this all mean for Wall Street? In this episode of Stocks in Translation, RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas joins host Jared Blikre and Senior Reporter Allie Canal to discuss the current economic outlook and how it could be impacted by the government shutdown. Brusuelas also offers top insight on Federal Reserve policy, the bond market, and the rol ...

Group 1 - The outlook for equity markets is influenced by the US economy and Federal Reserve policy [1] - There are notable differences in portfolio strategies between US and non-US investors [1]

Group 1 - Near-term risks to inflation are tilted to the upside while risks to employment are tilted to the downside, indicating a challenging economic situation [1] - The balance of risks has shifted due to increased downside risks to employment, leading to a decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4 to 4.25 percent [2] - The current policy stance is considered modestly restrictive, allowing for flexibility in response to economic developments based on incoming data and evolving outlook [3] Group 2 - The commitment remains to support maximum employment and achieve a sustainable inflation rate of 2%, which is crucial for the well-being of all Americans [4]

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said Federal Reserve policy is leaning toward being too slack, emphasizing that the US economy’s biggest risks lie in inflation rather than the job market https://t.co/3vxeYkZn1a ...

All right, let's get more on the markets and rates from the one and only Rick Santelli. >> Clap them in here. One of the only guests who insists on standing.We don't have to bring a chair out or anything. We're we're very happy to see you, Rick, especially on a on a day like today. >> You know, a couple things I haven't heard of and I want everybody's opinion on.Back in the old days when you had a holiday like Labor Day and you thought about how initial and continuing claims have to make seasonal adjustment ...

Group 1 - The impact of global tariffs on the US economy and inflation is unclear, complicating predictions for Federal Reserve policy [1][2][3] - There is an expectation for a reduction in interest rates by the Fed at its upcoming meeting, but investors are uncertain about future policy adjustments [2] - The divergence in the global economy is characterized by a split between technology-driven sectors and traditional sectors, affecting markets like Hong Kong's IPO landscape [4] Group 2 - The Swiss economy ministry is seeking input from UBS to improve the US trade deal, as the Trump administration has imposed a 39% tariff on Swiss exports, the highest for any developed nation [4] - UBS's potential role in navigating tariffs could enhance its relationship with Swiss authorities amid tensions over proposed capital rules [5] - Proposed capital plans in Switzerland could add up to $26 billion to UBS's existing capital demands, following the collapse of Credit Suisse [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the busy schedule of corporate events, including Analyst Days and Shareholder Meetings, which can provide valuable insights into companies' short-term trends and strategic plans [1][2][3] Company Events - Uber Technologies participated in a Fireside Chat with Goldman Sachs analysts, while Visa, Apple, and Nike are hosting significant events this week [2] - CrowdStrike's Analyst Day is scheduled for September 17, following a stock price decline of over 20% from its peak of $518 in early July, despite strong revenue and earnings performance [6][9] - Wynn Resorts will hold its Analyst Day on September 19, with shares nearly doubling since April, although recent reports indicate challenges in the Las Vegas tourism sector [7][9] - Alibaba's Shareholder Meeting is set for September 25, with the company recently announcing the development of new AI chips, positioning itself competitively in the tech sector [10] - FedEx's Shareholder Meeting is on September 29, with expectations for clarity on its Freight division spinoff amid a 20% stock price decline over the past year [11] Economic Context - The article highlights the upcoming macroeconomic data releases, including retail sales and Federal Reserve policy decisions, which could impact market sentiment and company performance [4][5][12] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is currently around 15, indicating modest expected volatility in the S&P 500, suggesting a stable market environment for the time being [12]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **US Economic Outlook** for 2025, focusing on growth, inflation, and fiscal policies. Core Economic Insights - **Real GDP Growth**: Projected to slow to **1.1% in 2025** and **1.3% in 2026**, with a significant decline from **3.2% in 2023** and **2.5% in 2024** [6][5][4] - **Inflation Trends**: PCE inflation is expected to be **3.0% in 2025** and **2.3% in 2026**, indicating persistent inflation above target levels [6][5] - **Labor Market Dynamics**: A two-speed labor market is anticipated, with restrictive immigration policies leading to slower labor force growth and a low unemployment rate of **4.4% in 2025** [6][5][4] Fiscal Policy Implications - **Tariffs Impact**: Effective tariff rates are estimated at **16%**, which are expected to remain stable, impacting consumption negatively, particularly for low-income consumers [10][20][6] - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed is expected to start cutting rates in **September 2025**, with a target range of **2.75-3.0%** by the end of 2026 [48][49] - **Fiscal Measures**: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act aims to reduce the deficit by **$508 billion** over ten years but will increase the deficit in **2026** due to frontloaded tax cuts [35][41] Consumption and Investment Trends - **Consumer Spending**: Real income growth is expected to slow, leading to a more significant decline in spending on goods compared to services due to high pass-through from tariffs [71][72] - **Business Investment**: Nonresidential fixed investment is projected to grow by **4.5% in 2025**, driven by strong demand for equipment, particularly related to AI [90][94] - **Residential Investment**: Expected to decline by **2.1% in 2025**, with affordability challenges continuing to suppress housing activity [105][102] Trade and Inventory Dynamics - **Trade Volatility**: Frontloading of imports has distorted trade data, with expectations for trade to contribute slightly to growth in the second half of 2026 [65][68] - **Container Volumes**: Shipping volumes have been volatile, with a notable decline in the share of imports from China due to tariff avoidance strategies [68][70] Additional Insights - **Immigration Policy Effects**: A significant slowdown in net immigration is expected, dropping from **3 million per year** in 2022-2024 to **300,000 this year** and **200,000 next** [26][32] - **Consumer Balance Sheets**: While delinquency rates are rising, overall consumer balance sheets remain strong, with assets significantly outweighing liabilities [85][88] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed in the conference call, highlighting the economic landscape and potential challenges ahead.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **US Economic Outlook** for 2025, focusing on growth, inflation, and fiscal policies impacting various sectors. Core Economic Insights - **Real GDP Growth**: Projected to slow to **1.1% in 2025** and **1.3% in 2026**, with a significant decline from **3.2% in 2023** and **2.5% in 2024** [6][5][4] - **Inflation Trends**: PCE inflation is expected to be **3.0% in 2025** and **2.3% in 2026**, indicating persistent inflation above target levels [6][5] - **Labor Market Dynamics**: A two-speed labor market is anticipated, with restrictive immigration policies leading to slower labor force growth and a low unemployment rate of **4.4% in 2025** [6][5] Fiscal Policy Implications - **Tariffs Impact**: Effective tariff rates are estimated at **16%**, which are expected to remain stable, contributing to inflation and acting as a regressive tax on consumption [10][20] - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed is expected to start cutting rates in **September 2025**, with a target range of **2.75-3.0%** by the end of 2026 [49][50] - **Fiscal Measures**: The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" aims to reduce the deficit by **$508 billion** over ten years but will increase the deficit in **2026** due to frontloaded tax cuts [35][41] Consumption and Investment Trends - **Consumer Spending**: Real income growth is projected to slow, with a more significant decline in spending on goods compared to services due to high pass-through from tariffs [72][73] - **Business Investment**: Nonresidential fixed investment is expected to grow by **4.5% in 2025**, driven by strong demand for equipment, particularly in AI-related sectors [5][91][95] Trade and Inventory Dynamics - **Trade Volatility**: Frontloading of imports has distorted trade data, with expectations for trade to contribute slightly to growth in the second half of 2025 [66][69] - **Container Volumes**: Shipping volumes have been volatile, with a decline in the share of imports from China, raising concerns about trade rerouting to avoid tariffs [69][70] Residential Investment Challenges - **Affordability Issues**: Despite an increase in inventories, affordability remains a challenge, leading to muted sales and a decline in residential investment [104][107] - **Future Outlook**: A slight recovery in residential investment is expected in the latter half of **2026** as mortgage rates decrease [107][109] Inflation and Consumer Behavior - **Inflation Effects on Low-Income Consumers**: Low-income households are expected to face higher inflation rates due to their consumption patterns, which are more sensitive to tariff impacts [79][86] - **Consumer Balance Sheets**: While delinquency rates are rising, overall consumer balance sheets remain strong, with assets significantly outweighing liabilities [86][90] Conclusion - The US economy is facing a complex landscape characterized by slow growth, persistent inflation, and significant fiscal and monetary policy adjustments. The interplay of tariffs, immigration policies, and consumer behavior will be critical in shaping the economic outlook for 2025 and beyond.

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].