Market Performance - US stocks ended the week higher, with tech stocks leading the gains, resulting in record closes for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 [1] - The Dow led major indexes with a gain of over 2% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite rose nearly 2% and the S&P 500 increased by approximately 1.6% [1] Oil Market - Oil prices increased throughout the week, influenced by the US military's capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and the Trump administration's seizure of Venezuela's oil industry [2] - Brent crude oil futures rose more than 3.7% for the week, while West Texas Intermediate futures gained roughly 2.6% [2] Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data on consumer prices, producer prices, and retail sales will be closely monitored, as traders anticipate the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rates [3] - Current market expectations indicate a 95% probability that the Fed will maintain unchanged rates at the upcoming meeting [3] Earnings Reports - The earnings season is set to begin, with major banks such as JPMorgan Chase and BNY Mellon reporting results on Tuesday, followed by Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup on Wednesday [3] - Other significant companies reporting include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Taiwan Semiconductor later in the week [4] Labor Market Insights - The December jobs report indicated that 2025 was the worst year for US job growth outside of a recession since 2003, with only 584,000 new jobs added [5] - This marked a significant decline from over 2 million jobs added in 2024, and it was the first time job gains fell below 1 million annually, excluding the years 2008, 2009, and 2020 [5] - Despite concerns, the market's reaction suggested that labor market conditions are cooling but not collapsing, according to economic research insights [6]

Group 1 - Gold prices steadied around $4,495 an ounce as traders expect the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates during the January meeting, following mixed signals from US jobs data [1][2] - The December payrolls report indicated fewer job additions than anticipated, contributing to a yearlong slowdown in the labor market, while the unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, exceeding expectations [2] - Despite recent fluctuations, gold is projected to gain this week, with traders pricing in two overall rate cuts in 2026, which historically supports precious metals [3] Group 2 - Silver experienced a 3.2% increase on Friday, recovering from a two-day decline, and had a remarkable 150% rally last year, significantly outperforming gold due to a historic short squeeze and high demand from India [4] - Analysts from Metals Focus predict further price increases across precious metals due to ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, which encourage portfolio diversification [5] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding China-Japan trade relations and the US's actions in Venezuela, are expected to bolster the safe haven appeal of precious metals, with analysts suggesting that the ousting of Nicolás Maduro may lead to higher gold prices due to increased uncertainty [5]

Market Overview - Wall Street showed mixed signals with nonfarm payrolls rising by 64,000 in November, exceeding expectations of 50,000, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [1][2] - The Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.2% to 25,121, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 experienced slight declines of 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [3][6] - Small-cap stocks underperformed, with the Russell 2000 dropping 0.6%, marking a third consecutive session of losses [3][6] Sector Performance - Energy stocks continued to decline, falling 2.2% on the day, lagging behind the broader market [5] - Oil prices fell to $55 per barrel, down 2.2%, reaching the lowest levels since January 2021, amid expectations of a potential resolution in the Ukraine war that could ease restrictions on Russian oil exports [4] - In commodities, gold remained stable at $4,300 per ounce, while silver decreased by 0.6% to $62 per ounce [5] Notable Stocks - Affirm Holdings Inc. saw a significant increase in shares, rising by 10.48% [8][9] - The top gainers in the Russell 1000 included Circle Internet Group Inc. (+9.07%), RH (+6.82%), and Cognex Corporation (+5.20%) [9] - Conversely, the top laggards included Corcept Therapeutics Inc. (-8.19%), Amkor Technology Inc. (-7.64%), and Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp. (-6.35%) [10]

Labor Market Update - The November nonfarm payrolls report indicated that the US labor market added 64,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.6%, the highest since 2021 [2][3] - October's jobs data was revised to show a loss of 105,000 jobs, highlighting potential weaknesses in the labor market [2] Federal Reserve Implications - The jobs data is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate policies, with traders anticipating two rate cuts in the upcoming year as the Fed focuses on labor market conditions rather than persistent inflation [3][4] Corporate Developments - Ford's shares experienced a rise in premarket trading following the announcement of a $19.5 billion charge related to a strategic shift away from electric vehicles [5] - Attention will also be directed towards Lennar's earnings report, which is scheduled for release after market close [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - European stocks are expected to open flat to slightly higher as investors await key U.S. economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve's rate decision next week [1] - Asian markets showed mixed results, with Japan and South Korea gaining while Chinese and Hong Kong markets declined due to weak services data and property stress [4] - U.S. stocks ended higher, with the Nasdaq Composite rising by 0.6%, the Dow gaining 0.4%, and the S&P 500 adding 0.3% after recovering from previous losses [7] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The ADP report on private sector employment is anticipated to show an increase of 10,000 jobs in November, following a rise of 42,000 jobs in October [1] - Reports on service sector activity, personal income and spending, and consumer sentiment are expected to attract investor attention in the coming days [2] - The delayed September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday, with a hotter-than-expected reading potentially reviving concerns about elevated rates [2] Group 3: Company Performance - Marvell Technology's shares jumped over 10% after the company provided an optimistic outlook for its data [4] - American Eagle Outfitters' stock soared by 11% following strong Q3 results and an increased full-year forecast [4] Group 4: Global Economic Context - A private survey indicated that growth in China's services sector fell to a five-month low in November, contributing to bearish sentiment towards China Vanke Co., which is facing a decade-high level of bearish bets as it seeks to delay a bond repayment [5] - The dollar index decreased while gold prices increased as investors prepared for a widely expected Federal Reserve interest-rate cut next week [5]

Core Viewpoint - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has significantly decreased from nearly 90% to about 30% following the absence of the October jobs report due to a government shutdown [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The prediction market currently indicates a 66% chance of "No change" in rates and a 32% chance of a 25 basis points decrease, reflecting a steep repricing since the government shutdown began [2]. - Just three weeks prior, the 25-bps cut contract was trading above 90%, indicating strong trader confidence in a rate cut before year-end [2]. Group 2: Impact of Missing Data - The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that the full October jobs report will not be released, merging it with the November report, which is now delayed to December 16, after the Fed's December 9-10 meeting [3]. - The lack of fresh employment data has led traders to believe that the Fed is more likely to maintain current rates, with one participant stating, "No Data, No Cut" [4]. Group 3: Trading Volume - The Fed contract has recorded over $119 million in trading volume, making it one of Polymarket's most actively traded macro markets this quarter [5].

Mortgage Rates Overview - Current 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.09%, a slight increase of two basis points, while the 15-year fixed rate remains at 5.54% [1] - Mortgage rates are currently stable, lacking a defined trend, similar to the 10-year Treasury yield [1] Current Mortgage Rates - National average mortgage rates include: - 30-year fixed: 6.09% - 20-year fixed: 6.10% - 15-year fixed: 5.54% - 5/1 ARM: 6.31% - 7/1 ARM: 6.34% - 30-year VA: 5.64% - 15-year VA: 5.30% - 5/1 VA: 5.28% [5] Refinance Rates - Current refinance rates are generally higher than purchase rates, with the 30-year fixed refinance rate at 6.23% [16] Mortgage Payment Calculations - A $400,000 mortgage at 30 years with a 6.09% rate results in a monthly payment of approximately $2,421, leading to total interest payments of $471,703 over the term [8] - A $400,000 15-year mortgage at 5.54% results in a monthly payment of about $3,277, with total interest payments of $189,829 [8] Fixed vs. Adjustable-Rate Mortgages - Fixed-rate mortgages lock in the interest rate from the start, while adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) have a fixed rate for an initial period before adjusting based on market conditions [10][11] - ARMs may start with lower rates but carry the risk of increasing rates after the initial period [12] Future Rate Expectations - Economists do not anticipate significant drops in mortgage rates before the end of 2025, with potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve being uncertain [13][17] - Any decreases in mortgage rates in 2026 are expected to be modest, influenced by economic conditions and inflation [18]

Mortgage Rates Overview - Current 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.16%, up one basis point, while the 15-year fixed rate is at 5.61%, up four basis points [1] - Mortgage rates are fluctuating without a clear trend, similar to the 10-year Treasury yield [1] Current Mortgage Rates - National average rates include: - 30-year fixed: 6.16% - 20-year fixed: 6.04% - 15-year fixed: 5.61% - 5/1 ARM: 6.54% - 7/1 ARM: 6.51% - 30-year VA: 5.61% - 15-year VA: 5.35% - 5/1 VA: 5.57% [5] Refinance Rates - Refinance rates are generally higher than purchase rates, with the current national average for 30-year fixed refinance at 6.33% [16] Mortgage Payment Calculations - A $400,000 mortgage at 30 years with a 6.16% rate results in a monthly payment of approximately $2,440, totaling $478,221 in interest over the term [8] - A $400,000 15-year mortgage at 5.61% results in a monthly payment of about $3,292, with total interest paid being $192,511 [8] Fixed vs. Adjustable-Rate Mortgages - Fixed-rate mortgages lock in the interest rate from the start, while adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) have a fixed rate for an initial period before adjusting [10][11] - ARMs may start with lower rates but carry the risk of increasing rates after the initial period [12] Future Mortgage Rate Expectations - Economists do not anticipate significant drops in mortgage rates before the end of 2025, with potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve being uncertain [13][17] - Predictions indicate that any decreases in mortgage rates in 2026 may be modest, influenced by economic conditions and inflation [18]

Core Insights - Mortgage rates are experiencing fluctuations, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate increasing to 6.21% and the 15-year fixed rate decreasing to 5.40% [1][16] - The Federal Reserve's recent actions, including rate cuts, are influencing mortgage rates, but significant drops are not expected until at least the end of 2025 [13][17] Mortgage Rates Overview - Current mortgage rates include: - 30-year fixed: 6.21% - 20-year fixed: 5.81% - 15-year fixed: 5.40% - 5/1 ARM: 6.37% - 7/1 ARM: 6.29% - 30-year VA: 5.61% - 15-year VA: 5.08% [5] Refinance Rates - Refinance rates are generally higher than purchase rates, with the current 30-year fixed refinance rate at 6.35% [16] Economic Impact - Economists predict that mortgage rates will remain relatively stable through 2025, despite potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [17][18] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a high probability of further rate cuts in the near future, which may influence mortgage rates [14]

Core Insights - Mortgage rates are currently decreasing, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.15% and the 15-year fixed rate at 5.48% [1] - The 30-year rate has dropped by more than a quarter point in just three weeks, indicating a potential opportunity for locking in rates [1] Current Mortgage Rates - The current national average mortgage rates include: - 30-year fixed: 6.15% - 20-year fixed: 5.75% - 15-year fixed: 5.48% - 5/1 ARM: 6.30% - 7/1 ARM: 6.35% [5] Refinance Rates - Current refinance rates are generally higher than purchase rates, with the 30-year fixed refinance rate at 6.24% [16] Comparison of Mortgage Types - A $400,000 mortgage with a 30-year term at 6.15% results in a monthly payment of approximately $2,437, leading to $477,289 in interest over the term [8] - A 15-year mortgage at 5.48% for the same amount results in a monthly payment of about $3,264, with total interest paid being $187,536 [8] Adjustable vs. Fixed-Rate Mortgages - Fixed-rate mortgages lock in the interest rate from the start, while adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) have a fixed rate for an initial period before adjusting based on market conditions [10][11] - ARMs may start with lower rates but carry the risk of increases after the initial period [12] Future Rate Expectations - Economists do not anticipate significant drops in mortgage rates before the end of 2025, despite recent Federal Reserve rate cuts [13][17] - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement additional rate cuts, which may influence mortgage rates slightly lower in 2026 [14][18]