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STNE Stock Rises 108% Year to Date: Still a Buy or Time to Wait?
ZACKS· 2025-07-10 16:00
Core Insights - StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) shares have surged 108.7%, significantly outperforming the Internet–Software industry and the S&P 500, which rose around 16.2% and 5.2% respectively [1] - The stock's impressive performance positions StoneCo ahead of major fintech rivals like PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) and DLocal Limited (DLO) [1][2] Company Performance - StoneCo is strategically positioned to benefit from the booming global fintech industry, with the market projected to grow from $340.1 billion in 2024 to over $1.12 trillion by 2032, reflecting a CAGR of 16.2% [4] - The company has seen a 17% year-over-year increase in active clients in its payments business, reaching 4.3 million, and a 17% growth in total payment volume (TPV) [6] - Retail deposits reached R$8.3 billion, up 38% year over year, with R$6.3 billion in time deposits as part of a "cash sweep" strategy [7] Financial Metrics - StoneCo's total credit portfolio reached R$1.4 billion, with non-performing loans (NPLs) over 90 days at a controlled 4.57% [9] - The company's software segment revenues grew 11% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA rising 12% [10] - STNE trades at a forward P/E of 10.67X, significantly below its three-year high of 32.69X and the industry average of 40.58X [13] Strategic Initiatives - Management has executed R$843 million in share buybacks, lifting total repurchases over the past 12 months to R$2.4 billion, indicating a robust 12% distribution yield [12] - The company is witnessing stronger adoption of its financial services, with 38% of clients classified as heavy users by the end of Q1 [11] Market Position - StoneCo's integrated solutions and expanding ecosystem position it well for long-term growth as fintech adoption accelerates across Latin America [14] - The average brokerage recommendation for StoneCo is 1.67 on a scale of 1 to 5, with 77.78% of recommendations being Strong Buy [18][21]