Even though copycats have existed for years, some experts point to the advent of cryptocurrency ETFs as the moment when blatant dupes began taking off. Last year, the SEC approved 11 spot bitcoin products — all roughly identical, save for fees and share prices. Since then, spot products tracking different cryptocurrencies and crypto indexes also began trading. Despite there being multiple versions of these products, however, many have managed to remain relevant due to the sheer size of the spot bitcoin mark ...

Had an interesting discussion yesterday on our Monad space about the right time for NFT projects to mint on new chains.Day 1 or even week 1 is usually not it.There is so much going on, insane competition over attention, potential tech issues (not necessarily on the chain-level but on dApps) etc.First-mover advantage is real but it's much less important than one might think.Look at the Abstract and Berachain NFT ecosystems that launched this year.The projects that stood out weren't the ones that minted first ...

Core Thesis - Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) is positioned favorably in the U.S. nicotine pouch market, leveraging first-mover advantages and strong branding through a partnership with Tucker Carlson [2][3][4] Company Overview - TPB's share price was $98.02 as of September 25th, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 35.01 and 24.75 respectively [1] - Nicotine pouches contribute approximately 20–30% of TPB's revenue, although this figure is inflated due to a joint venture with Tucker Carlson [2] Market Position and Growth Potential - TPB operates effectively as two distinct businesses, with a significant portion of profits directed to Carlson rather than shareholders [2] - The company benefits from strong branding and consumer appeal, positioning itself to capture a growing market that could reach $100 billion in the next decade [3] - If TPB captures a 10% market share, its valuation could range from $10–20 billion, with conservative estimates suggesting $4–5 billion, indicating substantial upside potential [3] Strategic Focus - The company prioritizes short-term growth over margins, as the early-stage market rewards consumer switching and expansion [4] - Challenges include lean production primarily in India and unclear reporting on joint venture economics, complicating shareholder value assessment [4] - Despite these challenges, TPB's established products and distribution network suggest strong near-term growth potential as the nicotine pouch market matures [4] Competitive Landscape - The nicotine pouch market is expanding, with competitors like British American Tobacco's Velo brand also experiencing growth [5] - Emil Hartela emphasizes TPB's first-mover advantage and market growth potential, aligning with broader industry trends [5]

Core Insights - Netflix has delivered exceptional returns to investors since its IPO in 2002, with shares increasing by 80,080% as of March 19, resulting in significant wealth accumulation for early investors [1] - The company's current market capitalization exceeds $400 billion, indicating its continued attractiveness for long-term investors [2] Group 1: Business Performance - Netflix generated $39 billion in revenue in 2024, reflecting a 16% year-over-year increase and a 609% rise over the past decade [3] - The subscriber base reached 302 million as of December 31, showing substantial growth from 57 million in 2014 [3] Group 2: Competitive Advantage - Netflix's first-mover advantage has been crucial to its rapid growth, allowing it to outperform traditional cable TV and maintain a leading position in the streaming market [4] - The platform accounted for 8.2% of daily TV viewing time in the U.S. as of February, second only to YouTube, with strong engagement expected from upcoming popular shows [5] Group 3: Profitability and Business Model - Netflix has demonstrated strong profitability, with operating margins increasing from 13% in 2019 to 27% last year, with a target of 29% by 2025 [7] - The company operates a fixed-cost business model, where serving additional users incurs minimal marginal costs, allowing earnings to soar as subscriber numbers and revenue grow [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - Consensus analyst estimates project a compound annual growth rate of 22.6% for diluted earnings per share over the next three years, consistent with past performance [9] - Despite its historical success, Netflix shares are currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 38.6, which is considered expensive compared to historical averages [11] Group 5: Investment Considerations - For investors considering Netflix as a path to significant wealth, a long investment horizon and a larger upfront investment are crucial, though past returns may not be repeated [12] - Diversification is emphasized as a key strategy for achieving long-term investment success, rather than relying solely on a single stock [12]