We came across a bullish thesis on Turning Point Brands, Inc. on Emil Hartela Investing’s Substack by Emil. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TPB. Turning Point Brands, Inc.'s share was trading at $98.02 as of September 25th. TPB’s trailing and forward P/E were 35.01 and 24.75 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. Tilray Brands (TLRY) – Tilray Boosts Revenue Mix with New Cannabis, Wellness, and Beverage Products Copyright: nilswey / 123RF Stock Photo TPB Holdings (TPB) occupies ...

Key Takeaways Altria's on! reached 8.7% U.S. oral tobacco share, up 0.7 points from the prior year.The brand's 26.5% shipment jump to 52.1M cans drove segment profit growth.Helix drives on!'s growth through event marketing and rising brand awareness.Altria Group, Inc.’s ((MO) investment in the smoke-free future is anchored by its on! nicotine pouches, which were the primary driver of growth in the oral tobacco products segment for the second quarter of 2025. The brand’s strong performance pushed its retail ...

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. is focusing on the growing nicotine pouch market, with its on! brand leading the way, achieving a 26.5% year-over-year increase in shipments to 52.1 million cans in Q2 2025, and capturing an 8.7% share of the U.S. oral tobacco market [1][8] - The U.S. nicotine pouch category has grown by 52%, indicating a significant shift in consumer preferences towards this product type [1] - Altria's marketing efforts have successfully reached over 170,000 adult tobacco consumers, increasing brand awareness by 7 percentage points [2][8] Shipment and Earnings Performance - The oral tobacco segment reported a 10.9% increase in adjusted operating companies income (OCI) year-over-year, with margins expanding from 65.6% to 68.7% [3][8] - The on! brand captured a 16.7% market share in Q2 and 17.3% in the first half of 2025, demonstrating strong growth momentum [1] Competitive Landscape - Competition in the nicotine pouch category is intensifying, with Philip Morris International's ZYN brand experiencing a 26% growth in U.S. offtake and a 43% increase globally [5] - Turning Point Brands, Inc. has seen its Modern Oral sales increase nearly eightfold year-over-year to $30.1 million in Q2 2025, positioning itself as a fast-growing competitor in the market [6] Valuation and Estimates - Altria's shares have increased by 8.5% over the past month, outperforming the industry growth of 3.9% [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.2X, lower than the industry's average of 15.35X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 has increased by one cent each to $5.39 and $5.55, respectively [11]

Core Insights - Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is experiencing significant growth in smoke-free products, which are becoming a crucial part of its long-term transformation strategy, potentially offsetting declines in traditional cigarette sales [1][3][4] Smoke-Free Product Performance - Smoke-free products, including IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV, saw a shipment volume increase of 11.8%, resulting in a 15.2% rise in net revenues and a 23.3% increase in gross profit year over year [1][8] - Smoke-free products now account for 41% of total revenues and 42% of gross profit, indicating a strong shift in the company's revenue structure [1][3] - Management anticipates smoke-free volumes to grow by 12-14% for the full year, while cigarette volumes are expected to decline by approximately 2% [2] Cigarette Sales Overview - Cigarette shipments decreased by 1.5% to 155.2 billion units, primarily due to weaknesses in markets like Turkey and Indonesia [2][8] - Despite the decline in shipment volumes, combustibles still generated $6 billion in quarterly revenues, reflecting a 2.1% year-over-year increase [2][8] Competitive Landscape - Altria Group, Inc. (MO) is focusing on its on! nicotine pouch brand, which saw a 26.5% increase in shipments to 52.1 million cans, capturing an 8.7% retail share in the U.S. oral tobacco market [5] - Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) reported a nearly eightfold increase in Modern Oral sales to $30.1 million, raising its revenue target for 2025 to $100-$110 million [6] Financial Metrics - Philip Morris shares have increased by 6.1% over the past month, compared to an industry growth of 11.3% [7] - The company is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7X, higher than the industry average of 15.69X [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects year-over-year earnings growth of 14.2% for 2025 and 11.9% for 2026 [10]

Core Insights - Philip Morris International (PM) is leveraging its ILUMA platform to sustain momentum in its heated tobacco unit (HTU) through the latter half of 2025, with adjusted in-market sales growth for HTUs reaching 11.4% in Q2 2025 [1][7] - The company has expanded ILUMA into over 30 markets, significantly enhancing market share and user adoption, particularly in Europe and Japan [2][3] Sales and Market Performance - In Q2 2025, HTU sales increased by 11.4%, with Europe growing by 9.1% and Japan by 7.8%, attributed to the rollout of ILUMA i and new consumable products [1][7] - ILUMA's expansion has led to an increase in IQOS HTU market share by 1.2 percentage points to 10.9% in Europe, with over 20% share in key cities across 12 markets [2][7] Future Growth Projections - PMI anticipates smoke-free product volume growth of 12-14% in 2025, with the ILUMA upgrade cycle expected to support continued double-digit HTU growth [3] - The second half of 2025 will focus on maintaining rollout momentum while navigating competitive and regulatory challenges [3] Competitive Landscape - Turning Point Brands reported a significant increase in Modern Oral sales, reaching $30.1 million, and raised its revenue target for 2025 to $100-$110 million, emphasizing flavor innovation and retail presence [4] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Philip Morris shares have decreased by 5.7% over the past month, contrasting with the industry's growth of 1.3% [5] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for PM is 21.17X, higher than the industry average of 15.36X [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PM's earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 has increased by 4 cents and 7 cents, respectively, to $7.49 and $8.39 [9]

Core Insights - Philip Morris International (PM) is leveraging its ILUMA platform to sustain momentum in its heated tobacco unit (HTU) through the latter half of 2025, with adjusted in-market sales growth for HTUs reaching 11.4% in Q2 2025 [1][7] - The company has expanded ILUMA into over 30 markets, enhancing market share and user adoption, particularly in Europe and Japan [2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - In Q2 2025, HTU sales increased by 11.4%, with Europe growing by 9.1% and Japan by 7.8%, attributed to the rollout of ILUMA i and new consumable products [1][7] - ILUMA's expansion contributed to IQOS HTU share rising by 1.2 percentage points to 10.9% in Europe, with over 20% share in key cities across 12 markets [2][7] Group 2: Future Projections - PMI anticipates smoke-free product volume growth of 12-14% in 2025, with the ILUMA upgrade cycle expected to support double-digit HTU gains [3] - The second half of 2025 will focus on maintaining rollout momentum while navigating competitive and regulatory challenges [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Altria Group is preparing for the U.S. commercialization of the IQOS ILUMA platform, targeting select state markets and leveraging the Marlboro brand for adult smoker conversion [4] - Turning Point Brands reported a significant increase in Modern Oral sales, reaching $30.1 million, and raised its revenue target for 2025 to $100-$110 million, emphasizing flavor innovation and retail presence [5] Group 4: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Philip Morris shares have decreased by 5.7% in the past month, contrasting with the industry's growth of 1.3% [6] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for PM is 21.17X, higher than the industry's average of 15.36X [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PM's earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 has increased by 4 cents and 7 cents, respectively, to $7.49 and $8.39 [10]

Core Insights - Altria Group's on! brand experienced significant growth in Q2 2025, with shipments increasing by 26.5% year over year and capturing an 8.7% market share in the oral tobacco segment, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous year [1][8] - The oral tobacco segment's adjusted operating income rose by 10.9%, despite challenges in the moist smokeless tobacco (MST) category, which saw declines in retail share for key brands [1][2] Oral Tobacco Segment Performance - The moist smokeless tobacco category faced headwinds, with Copenhagen and Skoal experiencing retail share declines of 3.5 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively, leading to an overall decline of 4.6 percentage points in the segment's total retail share to 33.1% [2] - Volumes for Copenhagen and Skoal fell by 7.7% and 8.8%, respectively, indicating a significant downturn in traditional smokeless products [2] Nicotine Pouch Market Dynamics - The nicotine pouch category now constitutes over half of the U.S. oral tobacco market, providing a favorable environment for on!'s growth, although competition is intensifying [3] - on!'s share of the pouch segment decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 16.7%, highlighting the challenges in maintaining market share [3][4] Competitive Landscape - Philip Morris International's ZYN brand saw U.S. offtake growth of 26% in Q2 2025, with global volumes increasing by 43% due to expansion into 44 markets, supporting a multi-category smoke-free strategy [5] - Turning Point Brands reported a nearly eightfold increase in Modern Oral sales to $30.1 million, aiming for a double-digit U.S. market share by the end of the decade [6] Financial Performance and Valuation - Altria's shares increased by 10.5% over the past month, outperforming the industry growth of 1.3% [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.7X, lower than the industry's average of 15.36X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 has risen by 3 cents and 2 cents, respectively, to $5.39 and $5.55 [11]

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. is experiencing significant growth in its smoke-free product segment, particularly with its oral nicotine pouch brand, on!, which saw a 26.5% increase in shipments year over year, reaching 52.1 million cans, and capturing an 8.7% share of the total oral tobacco category [1][7] - The nicotine pouch segment now constitutes over half of the oral tobacco category, indicating a shift in consumer preferences away from traditional moist smokeless tobacco [1] - Altria's oral tobacco segment reported a 10.9% increase in adjusted operating income, with margins expanding to 68.7%, despite a 10.2% decline in domestic cigarette shipments [2][3][7] Market Competition - Philip Morris International is aggressively expanding its smoke-free portfolio, with a 17.3% organic growth in smoke-free net revenues, driven by a 26% increase in ZYN U.S. offtake and a 65% rise in international pouch volumes [4] - Turning Point Brands is also making strides in the modern oral nicotine market, with white pouch sales growing nearly 10 times year over year, prompting an increase in full-year guidance to $80-$95 million [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - Altria's shares have increased by 3.8% over the past month, contrasting with a 1.6% decline in the industry [6] - The company is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.4X, which is lower than the industry's average of 14.9X [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 has risen by 2 cents each, now projected at $5.39 and $5.55 respectively [10]

Core Insights - Philip Morris International (PM) has seen significant growth in its e-vapor brand VEEV, with shipment volumes more than doubling year over year in Q2 2025, reaching nearly 1.5 billion equivalent units in the first half of 2025, positioning VEEV as a key growth driver alongside IQOS and ZYN [1][9] Group 1: VEEV Brand Performance - VEEV is leading the closed pod market in six European countries, including Italy and Greece, driven by a profitability-focused rollout strategy that enhances consumer loyalty and repeat purchase rates [2][9] - The recent launch of VEEV inPRIME in the Czech Republic aims to improve user experience with enhanced flavor, larger vapor clouds, and extended battery life, reinforcing VEEV's premium positioning [3][9] - Early traction for VEEV in markets outside Europe, such as Indonesia, Canada, and Colombia, indicates its global growth potential, supported by PM's multi-category infrastructure [4][5] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Altria Group is revamping its NJOY product line to re-enter the e-vapor market but faces regulatory challenges and patent litigation that may hinder its progress [6] - Turning Point Brands reported nearly 10x year-over-year growth in white nicotine pouch sales, generating $22.3 million in revenues in Q1 2025, and raised its full-year sales guidance to $80-$95 million, reflecting strong consumer demand [7] Group 3: Financial Performance and Estimates - PM's shares have declined by 10% in the past month, contrasting with the industry's decline of 2.9% [8] - PM's forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 20.3X, higher than the industry's average of 14.7X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year earnings growth of 14% for 2025 and 12% for 2026, with current estimates for 2025 earnings at $7.49 per share [11][12]

Core Insights - Philip Morris International's smoke-free business is expanding significantly, with IQOS and ZYN being pivotal to this growth. In Q2 2025, smoke-free business contributed 41% of total net revenues and over 42% of total gross profit, indicating a strong shift from combustible products [1][8]. Smoke-Free Business Performance - Smoke-free business net revenues increased by 15.2% year-over-year (14.5% organically), while gross profit rose by 23.3% (21.5% organically), outpacing the growth of combustible products [1]. - IQOS, the heat-not-burn device, experienced an 11.4% increase in global sales in Q2, with a market share of 31.7% in Japan and a rise of 1.2 points to 10.9% in Europe [2][8]. - ZYN, the leading nicotine pouch, saw a 36% growth in June and 26% in Q2 in the U.S., with global shipments increasing by 43% year-over-year, driven by strong U.S. demand and international expansion [3][8]. Competitive Landscape - Altria Group's on! nicotine pouch brand reported a 26.5% increase in shipments to 52.1 million cans in Q2 2025, capturing an 8.7% retail share of the U.S. oral tobacco market [5]. - Turning Point Brands' modern oral nicotine pouch sales surged nearly tenfold year-over-year, generating $22.3 million in revenues, with a revised full-year sales guidance of $80–$95 million [6]. Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Philip Morris shares have declined by 8.6% in the past month, compared to a 1.7% decline in the industry [7]. - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20.26X, higher than the industry's average of 14.56X [10]. - Zacks Consensus Estimates indicate year-over-year earnings growth of 14% for 2025 and 12% for 2026 [11].