July 15, 2025 02:51 PM GMT China Musings | Asia Pacific But this does not change our view of notably slower growth in 2H: We expect real GDP growth YoY to slip to 4.5% in 3Q and 4.2% in 4Q, owing to a trio of drags: (1) Weaker exports: We expect export growth to slow from 6%Y in 1H to ~0%Y in 2H, resulting in a 60–70bps drag on 2H GDP growth. The payback from earlier export front-loading alone would exert a 2ppt drag on the YoY pace in 2H vs. 1H. In our base case, we assume that the US tariff rate on China ...

9 June 2025 | 9:10PM BST European Daily: UK—How Large is the Defence Dividend? (Moberly) UK—How Large is the Defence Dividend? The UK government has emphasised the growth upside from higher military spending, with the Prime Minister arguing this week that increased expenditure Sven Jari Stehn +44(20)7774-8061 | jari.stehn@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Filippo Taddei +44(20)7774-5458 | filippo.taddei@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Alexandre Stott +33(1)4212-1108 | alexandre.stott@gs.com Goldman Sach ...