Core Viewpoint - U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves faces significant challenges in preparing the Autumn Budget, with pressure to balance voter satisfaction, public finance stability, and market confidence in her policies [1][2]. Fiscal Strategies - Reeves is exploring various strategies to address a fiscal shortfall estimated at £50 billion ($65.6 billion), which may involve substantial spending cuts or breaking a pledge not to raise certain taxes [2][12]. - Potential tax hikes under consideration include taxing dividends, reducing tax breaks for salary sacrifice schemes, and increasing levies on specific professions, though such measures are likely to be unpopular among the public [3][4]. Public Sentiment - A YouGov poll indicates that nearly one-third of adults believe Reeves should avoid tax increases, even if it necessitates spending cuts or increased borrowing, while over half prioritize maintaining tax promises over borrowing limits [4]. Market Reactions - Some market participants would welcome tax increases, as evidenced by a sell-off in gilts following reports of a potential U-turn on planned income tax rises [5]. - Analysts expect Reeves to announce tax increases, which could positively impact U.K. government bonds (gilts), especially in light of a loosening labor market and expectations of peaking inflation [6][7]. Spending Cuts and Political Dynamics - Investors advocate for a combination of tax hikes and spending cuts to manage the public deficit, emphasizing the need for genuine fiscal consolidation without harming economic growth [10][11]. - Significant spending cuts may face resistance from left-leaning lawmakers within the Labour party, complicating Reeves's fiscal strategy [14]. Fiscal Rules and Market Stability - Reeves's commitment to her fiscal rules, which require day-to-day spending to be funded by tax revenues and public debt to decline as a share of economic output, remains firm, despite the challenges [17][19]. - Any deviation from these rules could negatively impact the bond market, as seen in past instances where political uncertainty led to increased gilt yields [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to propose a record-equalling tax-raising Budget of £41.7 billion, despite previous assurances that last year's £40 billion package was a one-off [1][2][3]. Tax Policy and Economic Forecasts - Barclays forecasts that the upcoming Budget will seek £41.7 billion in tax increases and spending cuts, similar to last year's £41.5 billion [1][4]. - The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has downgraded productivity forecasts, contributing to expectations of substantial tax rises [3][4]. - There is a strong likelihood that the government may need to break its manifesto pledges regarding income tax, VAT, and National Insurance increases due to fiscal pressures [5][6]. Political Implications - Sir Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, has refrained from reaffirming the manifesto pledge not to raise key taxes, indicating potential political challenges ahead [6]. - Discussions within the Labour party are ongoing regarding the political ramifications of breaking manifesto commitments on tax increases [5]. Household Financial Behavior - Households are preparing for potential tax rises by hoarding cash, with savings reaching £2 trillion for the first time, including £7.9 billion set aside in September [7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for Thailand's debt ceiling or fiscal policies Core Insights - Thailand's public debt is approaching the ceiling of 70 percent of GDP, raising concerns about fiscal prudence and the adequacy of the current debt ceiling [4][12] - The analysis suggests that the debt limit for Thailand could be in the range of 77-87 percent of GDP, with a midpoint estimate of 82 percent [43] - The current debt ceiling is deemed broadly consistent with the estimated debt limit, but a larger safety margin is recommended to account for contingent liabilities and additional spending needs [46][48] Summary by Sections A. Introduction - Thailand's debt ceiling is set at 70 percent of GDP, raised from 60 percent in 2021 to accommodate COVID-19 related measures [13][14] - The fiscal framework aims to ensure fiscal responsibility and debt sustainability across various public sector entities [13] B. Assessing Thailand's Debt Ceiling - The report employs three approaches to estimate Thailand's debt limit: primary balance and debt dynamics, debt servicing capacity, and impact on growth [30] - The first approach estimates a debt limit range of 80-110 percent of GDP, while the second approach suggests a range of 82-100 percent of GDP based on debt servicing capacity [10][12][37] - The third approach indicates that growth-maximizing debt levels range from 31 to 77 percent of GDP [41] - The analysis concludes that the debt ceiling should be set below the estimated debt limit to provide a safety margin against macroeconomic shocks [45] C. Conclusions and Policy Implications - The report recommends refraining from raising the debt ceiling further and suggests fiscal consolidation to restore fiscal space [52] - It emphasizes the need for improved fiscal rules and transparency to avoid unexpected debt increases [54][55]