Forecasting Challenges in Aviation - Aviation predictions tend to be overly optimistic, overpredicting project success and underpredicting costs and difficulties [3][4] - Accurate forecasting requires broad thinking, encompassing technology, infrastructure, supply chain, climate effects, labor, environmental effects, regulatory policy, and geopolitics [5][7] Factors Affecting Air Travel - Air travel is part of a multimodal transportation system, chosen based on cost, time, convenience, safety, and reliability [8] - Aircraft speeds, measured as gate-to-gate times, were faster in the past, but traffic has grown fourfold, leading to slower speeds [12][14] - Shorter flights and smaller aircraft are more affected by weather delays and air traffic management practices [18][19] - Disruptive storms are growing, impacting air traffic and reliability [20] Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) - Advanced Air Mobility, or flying cars, combines private aircraft and drone technology, envisioning electric-powered vertical takeoff and landing vehicles [26][27] - The FAA anticipates 3,000 vertiports and 10,000 AAM flights per day within six years of operation, compared to the current 45,000 flights per day in the national airspace system [35] - The success of AAM depends on overcoming challenges like congestion, weather extremes, and other factors that could make it less enticing than driving [36]