Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has filed new trademark applications with the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) for its awaited Roadster.New Trademark FilingsThe filings, dated Feb 3, were filed by Tesla with the agency and describe the wordmark "Roadster" in a stylized format, while the second filing details "a triangle design consisting of three flowing, curved lines," the filing said. The design showcases what could possibly be the Roadster silhouette.Tesla CEO Elon Musk had earlier shared that ...

Core Insights - Tesla's energy generation and storage business has become a core pillar, with Q4 2025 revenues reaching $3.06 billion, a 25% year-over-year increase, indicating a shift from being a side business to a mainstay [2][3] - The energy sector's gross profit for 2025 was $3.8 billion, significantly higher than $2.64 billion in 2024, showcasing improved profitability amid challenges in the automotive sector [3][12] Financial Performance - Total automotive revenues decreased by 11% year-over-year to $19.8 billion in Q4 2024, while total revenues fell by 3% to $25.7 billion [1] - Energy generation and storage revenue increased by 25% to $3.06 billion in Q4 2025, with services and other revenue also rising by 18% [1][2] - Total gross profit for Q4 2025 was $5.01 billion, with a gross margin of 20.1%, up 386 basis points year-over-year [1] - Net income attributable to common stockholders (GAAP) dropped by 61% to $2.13 billion in Q4 2024, while non-GAAP net income decreased by 16% [1] Production and Capacity Expansion - Tesla is expanding its manufacturing network to meet global demand for grid-scale energy storage, with existing factories in California and Shanghai each having a capacity of 40 GWh [8] - A new factory in Houston is under construction, which will produce the innovative "Megablock" product, designed to enhance capacity and reduce installation costs for grid operators [9][11] Market Challenges - Despite strong performance, Tesla's management has warned of increasing competition in the energy production and storage sector, which may lead to declining retail or wholesale electricity prices [12] - The company acknowledges that lower electricity prices could diminish the attractiveness of its storage products for some customers, presenting a macroeconomic challenge for 2026 [12] Strategic Vision - Tesla's energy vision is taking shape, with significant growth in energy revenues and the introduction of new products like the Megablock, indicating a transition from an electric vehicle company to a comprehensive AI and energy giant [13]

Core Insights - Tesla's journey has been characterized by extreme challenges and remarkable comebacks, illustrating a narrative of ambition, crisis, and innovation [4][32] - The company has transitioned from a struggling startup to the world's most valuable automaker, showcasing a unique approach to manufacturing and technology [4][28] Group 1: Historical Context and Challenges - In 2017, Tesla faced significant production issues at its Fremont factory, struggling to meet production targets for the Model 3, which led to fears of bankruptcy [9][10] - The company's early days were marked by skepticism from traditional automakers, with Tesla's ambitious goals seen as unrealistic [5][7] - During the 2008 financial crisis, Tesla made pivotal decisions to reject traditional dealership models and integrate advanced technology into its vehicles [8][12] Group 2: Innovations and Manufacturing - Tesla's innovative approach included the use of software to define hardware, allowing for rapid adjustments in vehicle performance [5][7] - The introduction of the Shanghai Gigafactory demonstrated Tesla's ability to achieve high production efficiency through innovative manufacturing processes [14][15] - The company has significantly reduced battery costs and improved vehicle performance through continuous technological advancements [15][17] Group 3: Data and Software Integration - Tesla's extensive data collection from its vehicles has enabled it to enhance its Autopilot system, achieving a lower accident rate compared to human drivers [17][22] - The company has developed a dual business model that combines hardware sales with software subscriptions, generating substantial recurring revenue [20][23] Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategic Shifts - Tesla is shifting its focus from traditional automotive manufacturing to becoming a technology platform, with ambitions to dominate the automotive ecosystem [26][30] - The company plans to invest heavily in AI and robotics, indicating a strategic pivot towards integrating advanced technologies into its operations [28][30] - By 2025, Tesla aims to significantly increase its production capacity and expand its product offerings, including autonomous vehicles and AI-driven solutions [28][30]

Core Insights - The implementation of dry electrode manufacturing technology represents a significant breakthrough in lithium battery production, with Tesla congratulating its engineering, production, and supply chain teams for their achievements [1] - The dry electrode process is expected to reduce costs, energy consumption, and factory complexity while significantly enhancing scalability [1] Group 1 - Tesla is designing and developing four types of 4680 batteries using different dry processing techniques, with plans to launch them in 2026 [2] - The dry process allows for the production of thicker electrodes compared to traditional wet processes, which can significantly improve battery energy density [2] Group 2 - The new batteries are designated as "NC05," "NC20," "NC30," and "NC50," each designed for different applications [2] - The "NC05" battery will be used in the upcoming Robotaxi model and future vehicles like SUVs and the Cybertruck [2] - The "NC20" battery is expected to have a larger energy capacity for use in an SUV, Cybertruck, and other future vehicles [2] - The "NC30" battery will incorporate silicon-carbon anodes to accommodate more lithium, targeting the Cybertruck and a future all-electric sedan [2] - The "NC50" battery will also feature silicon-carbon anodes, focusing on performance vehicles like the Roadster [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's flagship models, Model S and Model X, will cease production by the end of Q2, with the Fremont production line being repurposed for the Optimus robot factory, aiming for an annual capacity of 1 million units [1]. Group 1: Production and Sales - Model S was released in 2012, followed by Model X in 2015, establishing Tesla's dominance in the electric vehicle market [1]. - Sales of Model S/X have been low, categorized under "other models" in Tesla's financial reports, with a projected total of fewer than 50,000 units for all four models by 2025, compared to 1,585,300 units for Model 3/Y [2]. - The peak sales year for Model S/X was 2017, contributing 99% of Tesla's total deliveries and over $10 billion in revenue, but they have since been overshadowed by Model 3 and Model Y [7]. Group 2: Business Strategy - Elon Musk's philosophy emphasizes reducing production costs to sell vehicles at lower prices, contrasting with traditional automakers that cover various price segments [6]. - The initial high pricing of Model S/X was intended to open market space and foster supply chain growth, paving the way for more affordable models [7]. - Tesla's long-term strategy involves shifting value from hardware to software, particularly in autonomous driving, necessitating high sales volumes to dilute development costs [10]. Group 3: Market Response and Future Plans - The decision to stop production of Model S/X is influenced by a significant shift in capital market sentiment, where investors are more focused on Tesla's AI and robotics initiatives than its automotive business [15][19]. - Following disappointing sales and financial metrics, Tesla's stock has paradoxically risen, driven by optimism around AI developments and future projects like Cybercab and Optimus [18][19]. - Analysts have adjusted Tesla's stock price targets based on AI-related expectations, with some firms raising targets due to positive developments in Robotaxi and FSD services, while others express concerns over high capital expenditures [22][19].

以下文章来源于远川科技评论 ，作者何律衡 远川科技评论 . 刻画这个时代（的前沿科技） 2014年，首批Model S在中国交付 马斯克在2019年就曾表示，继续生产Model S/X"更多是出于一种情怀"[2]，如今六年过去，这么长的时间也足够把情怀消磨干净了。 "光荣退役"的体面包装下，是一个越来越清晰的事实：特斯拉已经不关心汽车了。 特斯拉全年财报出炉，年度营收首次下降，汽车业务交付量连续第二年下滑，营收同比大降10%。财报电话会上，马斯克宣布了个伤感的消息： 特斯拉标杆车型Model S/X将在第二季度末停产，位于弗里蒙特的产线将被改造成Optimus机器人工厂，暂定小目标 年产能 100万台[1]。 作为S3XY系列的老大哥，Model S发布于2012年，是Roadster后特斯拉真正意义上的首款量产车型，Model X在2015年发布，两款车型确立了特斯拉电动车霸主的 品牌形象。 但从销量来看，Model S/X在特斯拉财报中与Cybertruck、Semi一同被归类于 other model 中，销量一直不高，2025年四个车型满打满算不到5万台，只有Model 3/Y 的零头（158.53万 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's Q4 2025 earnings report exceeded market expectations in revenue and earnings per share, but the overall financial performance showed weakness, leading analysts to downgrade the stock rating from "Buy" to "Hold" [2][3][31] Financial Performance Summary - Tesla reported Q4 2025 revenue of $24.9 billion, surpassing expectations by $140 million, but experienced a year-over-year revenue decline of 3.1% and a 17% drop in non-GAAP earnings per share [10] - Operating cash flow decreased by 21% year-over-year, and free cash flow fell by 30% to $1.42 billion [11] - The core automotive business revenue plummeted by 11% to $17.693 billion, while energy production and storage revenue grew by 25% to $3.837 billion, and services and other revenue increased by 18% to $3.371 billion [11] Business Outlook - Analysts express concerns about the declining automotive business, which saw a 10% year-over-year revenue drop for 2025, significantly worse than General Motors' 1.3% decline [12] - Tesla plans to phase out the Model S and Model X to focus on the production of the Optimus robot, indicating a shift in priorities [13][14] - The company aims to maintain a significant automotive business scale, with Model 3 and Model Y expected to account for 96.7% of production in 2025 [15][16] Future Investments - Tesla is expected to invest over $20 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, a significant increase from $8.527 billion in 2025, focusing on six new factories and AI infrastructure [17][18] - The development of the Optimus robot and Robotaxi projects is seen as a strategic move, with the potential for substantial future growth [17][18] Robotaxi and Optimus Developments - Tesla's Robotaxi service began operations in Austin in December 2025, with plans to expand to seven major cities by mid-2026 [21][22] - The company is optimistic about the potential of the Optimus robot, with plans for mass production by the end of 2026 [19][20] Valuation Concerns - Tesla's valuation remains high, with a static P/E ratio of 249 and a free cash flow yield of approximately 222 times, reflecting market expectations of future growth rather than current performance [25][26] - The global Robotaxi market is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 52.54% from 2025 to 2034, highlighting the potential for Tesla's future business [25][26] Market Sentiment - Despite the ongoing upward trend in Tesla's stock price, recent performance indicates investor caution, as the stock fell 3.45% following the earnings report [28] - Analysts recommend waiting for more evidence of the Robotaxi's operational viability before making further investment decisions [31]

证券研究报告 2026.01.29 特斯拉 业绩超出市场预期；首度披露 FSD 订阅数据 汽车及出行设备 SAC 执证编号：S0080521010008 SFC CE Ref：BJV008 xue.deng@cicc.com.cn 维持跑赢行业 | 股票代码 | 股票评级 | 目标价 | | --- | --- | --- | | TSLA.US | → 跑赢行业 | 美元 500.00 | | 股票代码 | TSLA.US | | --- | --- | | 最新收盘价 | 美元 431.46 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 美元 498.83~214.25 | | 总市值(亿) | 美元 14,349.6 | 纵轴：相对股价（%） 49 66 83 100 117 134 2025-01 2025-04 2025-07 2025-10 2026-01 TSLA.US DJIA | (美元 百万) | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 97,690 | 94,827 | 111,393 | 1 ...

Core Insights - The report analyzes the development and investment cycles of the electric vehicle (EV) industry and draws parallels to the humanoid robot industry, suggesting that humanoid robots are currently in a technology validation phase, but their commercialization timeline will be shorter than that of EVs [3][27][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-value, clear-structure, and high-certainty segments within the robot industry, as these segments exhibit the greatest performance elasticity [17][22][41] Industry Comparison - Both the EV and humanoid robot industries are considered global strategic industries, initiated by Tesla, and follow similar patterns of technological validation, capital support, and policy-driven market dynamics [4][28] - The complexity of intelligent robotics is higher than that of EVs, with more fragmented application scenarios, leading to greater uncertainty in industry development [4][28] Investment Strategy - The report recommends actively seeking leading companies in the humanoid robot sector that have high barriers to entry in terms of non-standardization, technology, cost, and production expansion, as these companies are likely to navigate through industry cycles successfully [22][41] - The humanoid robot industry is expected to follow a path from closed to open systems, from standardization to complexity, and from production to everyday life applications [23][30] Technological Development - Current technological challenges in humanoid robots include improving autonomous decision-making capabilities, enhancing motion flexibility and stability, and reducing overall costs [31][34] - The report notes that while the cost structure of humanoid robots is similar to that of EVs, the industry is still in its infancy, and no dominant players have emerged yet, akin to CATL in the battery sector [41] Market Dynamics - The EV industry has experienced four major market cycles driven by macroeconomic factors, policy changes, and technological advancements, which may serve as a reference for the humanoid robot industry as it develops [10][11][39] - The report highlights that the investment landscape for humanoid robots is currently characterized by thematic investments, similar to earlier stages of the EV market [39][41]

Core Viewpoint - The humanoid robot industry is currently in a technology validation phase, but the timeline for commercialization is expected to be shorter than that of the electric vehicle industry. The focus should be on segments with high value, clear structure, and high certainty, as these will have the greatest performance elasticity [1][22]. Industry Comparison - The humanoid robot industry is highly comparable to the electric vehicle industry, both being global strategic industries initiated by Tesla. They follow similar development patterns driven by technology validation, capital support, and policy incentives, although the complexity and fragmentation of robot intelligence present unique challenges [2][3]. Key Segments - High-value and high-barrier segments in the humanoid robot industry include platform companies (integrating hardware and software), high-performance SOC chips (driving the brain side), dexterous hands (integrated hardware and software small robots), actuators, and precision sensors [1][19][22]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should focus on identifying leading companies in the humanoid robot sector that have high non-standard, technical, cost, and production expansion barriers, as these companies are likely to navigate through industry cycles successfully [1][22]. Market Dynamics - The humanoid robot industry is expected to experience a more stable performance trajectory compared to the electric vehicle industry, which has faced significant volatility due to cyclical material performance. The industry is still in its early stages, with no dominant players yet emerging like CATL in the lithium battery sector [19][22]. Policy and Capital Support - Policy and capital support are crucial for the development of both the electric vehicle and humanoid robot industries. The approach for robots should follow a "plan first, market later" strategy, similar to the early days of electric vehicles [5][6].