Core Insights - Robin Hood has officially launched its prediction markets, expanding its offerings to include a platform for users to trade on various events and outcomes [1][2] - The prediction markets have seen significant growth, starting with one contract related to the 2024 presidential election and expanding to over 1,500 contracts within a year [3][4] - In November, Robin Hood traded three billion contracts on the platform, leading to an estimated monthly revenue of approximately 30 million, marking it as the fastest-growing business segment for the company [4] Company Developments - The prediction markets are now accessible on the web, allowing users to browse and search for various contracts, enhancing user engagement beyond mobile app access [5][6] - The platform includes contracts on diverse topics such as politics, sports, weather, and economic events, indicating a broad application beyond traditional sports betting [7][10] - The prediction markets are positioned as a valuable forecasting tool, with claims of over 90% accuracy in predicting event outcomes, surpassing traditional polling methods [13][14] Industry Impact - The rise of prediction markets is expected to disrupt the sports betting industry, prompting existing platforms to adapt their strategies [10][11] - The potential for non-sports contracts to grow rapidly suggests a broader market opportunity that could impact various sectors [11] - The integration of financial markets with forecasting capabilities is seen as a transformative development, providing a more precise tool for investors and analysts [14][15] Future Outlook - Robin Hood aims to continue prioritizing retail investors while expanding access to innovative investment opportunities, including private markets and initiatives for new investors [17][18] - The company is focused on enhancing its offerings to empower retail investors, indicating a commitment to growth and accessibility in the investment landscape [19][20]

Market Sentiment & Potential Assessment - Polymarket's pre-TGE markets are valuable for forecasting FDVs (Fully Diluted Valuations) shortly after launch, indicating market sentiment [1] - The odds shifting closer to TGE (Token Generation Event) is always interesting to observe [1] Specific Token Valuations - Vooi's $VOOI is priced below $300 million USD [1] - Opensea's $SEA is priced between $1 billion and $3 billion USD [1] - MegaETH's $MEGA is priced between $3 billion and $4 billion USD [1] - Sentient's $SENT is priced between $800 million and $1 billion USD [1]

Monsoons are notoriously hard to predict and climate change is making the guessing game even harder. India’s meteorological department is trying a new method of forecasting https://t.co/4v3tK0K6nh ...

Viktor Shvets on the Futility of Forecasting in an Irrational World https://t.co/MKlrHsC4vD ...

Market Trends - Prediction markets are evolving into global tools for forecasting, decision-making, and risk management [1] Technology & Platform - BNB Chain is highlighted as the best platform for building prediction markets [1]

Katrina’s 20th Anniversary: How The Storm Changed Forecasting https://t.co/uA1RSkKNv5 https://t.co/GaWhvYQG94 ...

This is a story about an invisible hand guiding the economy. No, not the invisible hand of self-interest that Adam Smith wrote about in the Wealth of Nations. This invisible hand is much more modern.It's that artificial intelligence we keep hearing so much about. Our special contributor, Larry Summers, is a macro economist who also sits on the board of Open Air. Who better to ask what I could mean for Adam Smith's economy.My guess is that this is going to raise the neutral rate of interest over time, both b ...

specifically and this is also the most common or most natural thing people are are thinking about here is it will improve forecasting and I think this is sort of where everybody's interested how are interest rates going how does the economy develop going forward how is inflation going forward so here we're going to see a lot already happening in terms of AI and I think here there's also a lot to learn going forward is it likely to make forecasting more accurate do you think I think definitely so I think one ...

Did the Trump administration staff cuts at the National Weather Service and reduced staffing at FEMA make any difference in the forecasting or in FEMA's response to Texas flooding. We've been trying to figure that out ever since floods in central Texas killed more than 120 people. FEMA's full-time staff shrank by a third this year.Some of them left on their own, including almost 20 senior leaders. We want to wean off of FEMA and we want to bring it down to the state level. The Trump administration has elimi ...

gonna start calling myself a forecaster & time traveler instead of a trader ...