Monsoons are notoriously hard to predict and climate change is making the guessing game even harder. India’s meteorological department is trying a new method of forecasting https://t.co/4v3tK0K6nh ...

Viktor Shvets on the Futility of Forecasting in an Irrational World https://t.co/MKlrHsC4vD ...

Prediction markets are moving from niche experiments to global tools for forecasting, decision-making, and risk management.Here’s how the sector is evolving and why BNB Chain is the best place to build them 👇https://t.co/fu0Tk9rhan ...

Katrina’s 20th Anniversary: How The Storm Changed Forecasting https://t.co/uA1RSkKNv5 https://t.co/GaWhvYQG94 ...

This is a story about an invisible hand guiding the economy. No, not the invisible hand of self-interest that Adam Smith wrote about in the Wealth of Nations. This invisible hand is much more modern.It's that artificial intelligence we keep hearing so much about. Our special contributor, Larry Summers, is a macro economist who also sits on the board of Open Air. Who better to ask what I could mean for Adam Smith's economy.My guess is that this is going to raise the neutral rate of interest over time, both b ...

specifically and this is also the most common or most natural thing people are are thinking about here is it will improve forecasting and I think this is sort of where everybody's interested how are interest rates going how does the economy develop going forward how is inflation going forward so here we're going to see a lot already happening in terms of AI and I think here there's also a lot to learn going forward is it likely to make forecasting more accurate do you think I think definitely so I think one ...

Did the Trump administration staff cuts at the National Weather Service and reduced staffing at FEMA make any difference in the forecasting or in FEMA's response to Texas flooding. We've been trying to figure that out ever since floods in central Texas killed more than 120 people. FEMA's full-time staff shrank by a third this year.Some of them left on their own, including almost 20 senior leaders. We want to wean off of FEMA and we want to bring it down to the state level. The Trump administration has elimi ...

gonna start calling myself a forecaster & time traveler instead of a trader ...

Federal Reserve & Market Impact - The market is a forecasting machine, anticipating future economic conditions and reacting immediately to new data that changes the perception of the future [3][4][5] - Federal Reserve policy, particularly interest rate decisions, significantly impacts the stock market, with the market reacting rapidly to perceived changes [2][14] - When the Federal Reserve is perceived as supportive (rate cuts on the table), the stock market tends to perform well, and vice versa [12][13] - The stock market's performance is heavily influenced by anticipation of the Federal Reserve's actions, not necessarily the present economic conditions [4][9][11] Investment Strategy & Risk - Macro forces, such as Federal Reserve policy and trade policy, can override individual company fundamentals [2] - High-growth stocks are particularly vulnerable to Federal Reserve rate hikes [8] - Market declines can occur rapidly when investors anticipate economic slowdowns, leading to sudden bear markets [6][16]