证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 25 日 泡泡玛特（09992.HK） 半年营收破百亿，IP 矩阵一超多强 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年报，实现收入 138.76 亿元，同比增长 204.4%； 经调整净利润为 47.10 亿元，同比增长 362.8%；经调整净利率为 33.94%，同 比提升 11.6pct。 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1343 | | --- | --- | | 香港股（百万股） | 1343 | | 总市值（十亿港元） | 424.4 | | 香港股市值（十亿港元） | 424.4 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 10.6 | | ROE（TTM） | 22.0 | | 资产负债率 | 32.4% | | 主要股东 | UBS Trustees | | 主要股东持股比例 | 41.7837% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 12 151 621 相对表现 11 141 578 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -200 0 200 400 600 800 Aug/24 Dec/24 Apr/25 Jul/25 (% ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to report Q2 2025 revenue exceeding 30.7 billion, with a projected gross margin of 19.0-20.0%, leading to a gross profit of approximately 5.833-6.14 billion [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Projections - The estimated revenue for Q1 2025 was between 25.543-26.148 billion, with the actual revenue reported at 25.98 billion [2]. - The revenue calculation for Q2 2025 is based on vehicle pricing adjustments and is projected to be around 30.721 billion after accounting for VAT [2]. - The gross profit for Q2 2025 is expected to be between 5.833-6.14 billion, given the gross margin estimates [1][3]. Operating Expenses and Profitability - Operating expenses for Q2 2025 are projected to be between 5.047-5.792 billion, which may lead to an operating profit ranging from 0.04-1.093 billion [1][3]. - Historical data indicates that the company has only once reported lower Q2 operating expenses compared to Q1, which occurred in 2024 [2]. Sales Performance - The company’s sales in June 2025 fell significantly short of expectations, impacting the overall profitability outlook for Q2 2025 [3]. - Despite the lower sales performance, the operating profit for Q2 2025 is likely to exceed that of Q1 2025, although it may not surpass Q3 2024 levels [3]. Financial Summary Table - A detailed financial summary table outlines the delivery numbers, operating profit, operating expenses, R&D expenses, and general & administrative expenses for various quarters, highlighting trends in profitability and cost management [4].

2025 年 08 月 24 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨仁文 S0350521120001 | | | yangrw@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 方博云 S0350521120002 | | | fangby@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 吴倩 S0350525070006 | | | wuq05@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 线上和海外高速增长，毛绒成最大品类 ——泡泡玛特（9992.HK）2025H1 业绩点评 最近一年走势 | 相对恒生指数表现 | | 2025/08/22 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 泡泡玛特 | 27.9% | 44.1% | 570.9% | | 恒生指数 | 0.8% | 7.6% | 43.6% | | 市场数据 | 2025/08/22 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（港元） | 320.40 | | 52 周价格区间（港元） | 4 ...

根据这张图片显示，拒QuestAuto数据，25年6月，MEGA比理想所有L系列90后占比更高，家庭有孩占比更低。 李想在i8发布会上说MEGA，有30%用户是单身，不清楚这里单身的定义是什么。 25年7月8日，TOP2指出《 1个常见误解: 理想的车1个人开有点亏或为自己不应该首选理想 》，MEGA是理想所有车里一个人用最爽的车型，比其他车都 更爽。 1人用理想反而比多人用理想更爽，本质是2点： 1.有更多东西可以常备，多人使用无法常备。 2.平均空间资源更多。 常备放一张纯平单人床（一直不收那种）： MEGA可以选择右侧一二排/二三排, 左侧二三排。 L67是右侧一二排+二排放倒叠加后备箱形成床 L89只能选择右侧一二排（L89二三排无法形成一张床,且三排向前放倒不够成年人睡） 即MEGA可以实现那怕经常3人也能常备纯平单人床，4人就不行了。 L89 只要经常2人就不能纯平单人床了，L67虽然经常2人可以二排与后备箱为单人床，但是这种模式下是倒着的，无法正向看屏幕，体验有所缺 失。 如果经常都只有1人，L6789 MEGA 都可以常备放一张纯平单人床，且视角正式屏幕。 杯架放置选择： L89 MEGA 副 ...

机构：方正证券 研究员：李珍妮/马萤 事件：公司发布中报，2025H1 实现营收138.8 亿元，同比+204%；毛利率70.3%，同比+6.3pct；经调整 净利润47.1 亿元，同比+363%。 国内及海外各区域市场均保持快速增长。分区域看，通过品类多元拓展、深度挖掘IP、精细化运营，中 国各渠道销售均实现增长，收入达到约83 亿元，同比+135%；通过深度推进本土化运营，亚太收入接 近29 亿元，同比+258%；加大市场开拓力度、进行差异化渠道定位，美洲收入约23 亿元，同比 +1142%；凭借独特的产品设计，提升购物体验，欧洲及其他地区实现收入4.8 亿元，同比+729%。 基于各IP 的独特表达与设计，差异化运营，持续提升IP 热度。分IP 看，2025H1，共有13 个艺术家IP 收入超过1 亿元，其中5 个超过10 亿元，THEMONSTERS、MOLLY、SP、CRYBABY、DIMOO 收入 分别为48 亿元、14 亿元、12亿元、12 亿元、11 亿元，同比分别+668%、+74%、+112%、+249%、 +192%。 产品层面不断推陈出新，丰富产品品类，提升产品设计的能力。得益于出色的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in Pop Mart's stock price has led to a market capitalization exceeding HKD 420 billion, boosting the personal wealth of its founder, Wang Ning, to approximately HKD 205 billion, which has elevated his ranking on global and Chinese billionaire lists [1][2]. Financial Performance - Pop Mart reported a revenue of RMB 138.8 billion for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 204.4%. The Chinese market contributed a revenue growth of 135.2%, while overseas markets also showed substantial growth [3][4]. - The revenue breakdown for the first half of 2025 includes plush toys at RMB 6.14 billion (44.2% of total revenue), figurines at RMB 5.18 billion (37.3%), and other categories contributing significantly to overall growth [4]. Market Position and Brand Strategy - Pop Mart's key IPs, such as THE MONSTERS and MOLLY, have been major growth drivers, with THE MONSTERS series generating RMB 4.81 billion in revenue [3]. - The company has innovated in product categories and sales channels, with plush toys surpassing figurines as the top revenue-generating category and new sales methods like drone sales showing promising results [3]. Investor Sentiment and Market Perception - Despite strong performance, there are concerns among investors regarding Pop Mart's high price-to-earnings ratio, leading to debates about the company's valuation and its classification as an IP operator, trendy toy brand, or a representative of the blind box economy [3][5]. - The recent surge in stock price has prompted discussions about potential market bubbles, especially following extreme trading cases involving high-value sales of initial LABUBU products [4][5].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 13.88 billion yuan for 1H25, representing a year-on-year increase of 204%, and a net profit of 4.68 billion yuan, up 386%, exceeding previous forecasts [1] - The company's global brand recognition and IP value have rapidly increased, leading to significant growth in both revenue and profitability [1] Revenue Growth - Revenue by region: China 8.28 billion yuan (up 135%), Asia-Pacific 2.85 billion yuan (up 258%), Americas 2.26 billion yuan (up 1142%), Europe and others 480 million yuan (up 729%) [1] - Store count increased to 443 in China, 69 in Asia-Pacific, 41 in the Americas, and 18 in Europe, with significant expansions in the U.S. and Europe [1] IP and Product Development - Five major IPs generated over 1 billion yuan each, with THE MONSTERS achieving a revenue increase of 668% to 4.81 billion yuan, accounting for 34.7% of total revenue [2] - Revenue from plush toys increased by 1276%, with the company launching nearly 20 new products across various styles and materials [2] Profitability Improvement - Gross margin reached 70.3%, up 6.3 percentage points, driven by improved overseas sales and supply chain negotiation capabilities [2] - Adjusted net profit margin improved to 33.9%, reflecting operational leverage and cost management [2] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the potential for creating multiple successful IPs and expanding into new business areas such as toys, accessories, and content ecosystems [2] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 13% and 15%, respectively, indicating strong growth potential [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with significant increases in revenue and net profit, surpassing previous forecasts [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2025H1, the company achieved revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.57 billion yuan, up 396.5% [1]. - Adjusted net profit reached 4.71 billion yuan, reflecting a 362.8% increase, with an adjusted net profit margin of 33.9%, up 11.6 percentage points [1]. - Gross profit margin was 70.3%, an increase of 6.3 percentage points, while sales and management expense ratios decreased by 6.7 and 4.0 percentage points, respectively [1]. IP Strategy and Product Performance - The company employs a diverse IP strategy, with five major IPs generating over 1 billion yuan in revenue each, and 13 IPs exceeding 100 million yuan [1][2]. - Notable revenue contributions from key IPs include THE MONSTERS at 4.81 billion yuan (+668.0%), MOLLY at 1.36 billion yuan (+73.5%), and SKULLPANDA at 1.22 billion yuan (+112.4%) [1][2]. - The product mix has diversified, with plush toys driving significant growth, while the share of figurines continues to decline [2]. Global Expansion - The company experienced substantial growth in various regions, with revenue in the Americas increasing by 1142.3% to 2.26 billion yuan, driven by a focus on the U.S. market [2]. - In China, revenue reached 8.28 billion yuan (+135.2%), with both offline and online sales contributing to growth [2]. - The Asia-Pacific region saw revenue of 2.85 billion yuan (+257.8%), while Europe and other regions reported 480 million yuan (+729.2%) [2]. Investment Outlook - Based on the strong performance in the first half of 2025, the company has revised its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting revenues of 30.80 billion, 42.79 billion, and 55.31 billion yuan, respectively [2]. - The expected net profits for the same period are 10.67 billion, 15.23 billion, and 20.38 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 7.94, 11.34, and 15.18 yuan [2].

Core Viewpoint - Bubble Mart (09992.HK) reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 138.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, exceeding market expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 46.8 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit (excluding share-based compensation) reaching 47.1 billion yuan, a significant increase of 362.8% compared to 10.2 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - Gross margin improved by 6.3 percentage points to 70.3%, driven by an increase in overseas sales proportion, product design optimization, and a decrease in the proportion of outsourced products [1] Group 2: Overseas Market Growth - Overseas revenue (including Asia-Pacific, Americas, Europe, and other regions) reached 55.9 billion yuan, a remarkable growth of 440% year-on-year [2] - The Americas market saw a tenfold increase, with revenue reaching 8.4 billion yuan, a growth of 744.3%, and a net increase of 19 offline stores, totaling 41 [2] - The Asia-Pacific market implemented a tourism retail strategy, achieving revenue of 15.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 203.5%, with a net increase of 5 stores [2] Group 3: Product and IP Development - Plush products surpassed figurines for the first time, generating revenue of 61.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1276.2%, accounting for 44.2% of total revenue [3] - The IP "THE MONSTERS" generated revenue of 48.1 billion yuan, a growth of 668%, contributing 34.7% to total revenue [3] - The company opened new stores in high-end consumer areas and launched various IP-related products, enhancing its brand portfolio [3] Group 4: Domestic Market Performance - Domestic revenue (including Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) reached 82.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 135.2% [4] - Offline channel revenue in China reached 50.84 billion yuan, with retail stores and vending machines generating 44.06 billion yuan and 6.78 billion yuan, respectively [4] - Online channel revenue reached 29.37 billion yuan, a significant increase of 212.2%, with various platforms contributing to this growth [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company expects continued high growth in both domestic and overseas markets, with projected revenues of 312.6 billion yuan and 426.0 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [5] - Adjusted net profits are forecasted to be 113.1 billion yuan and 149.1 billion yuan for the same periods, reflecting growth rates of 232.3% and 31.9% [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a rotation in the anti-involution trend, with funds focusing on policy directions [2][4] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.17%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.01%, indicating mixed performance among sectors [2] - Southbound funds saw a net outflow of HKD 14.682 billion, with Tencent Holdings and Pop Mart being the most actively traded stocks [2][4] Group 2: Company Analysis - Pop Mart - Pop Mart reported a revenue increase of 204.4% year-on-year to RMB 13.88 billion for the first half of 2025, with adjusted net profit rising by 362.8% to RMB 4.71 billion [7][9] - The company's gross margin improved by 6.3 percentage points to 70.3%, attributed to a higher proportion of overseas sales and a decrease in outsourced products [7] - Pop Mart's self-owned IP products accounted for 99.1% of sales, with significant contributions from major IPs like THE MONSTERS and MOLLY [9] Group 3: Regional Performance - Revenue from the Chinese region reached RMB 8.28 billion, up 135.2%, while the Asia-Pacific region saw a 257.8% increase to RMB 2.85 billion [9] - The Americas experienced a remarkable growth of 1,140% in revenue, totaling RMB 2.26 billion, driven by a 744.3% increase in offline sales [9] - All regions demonstrated strong growth, with online and offline sales both contributing significantly [9] Group 4: Product Category Performance - Plush products generated RMB 6.14 billion in revenue, marking a 1,280% increase, while figurines achieved RMB 5.18 billion, up 94.8% [9] - The diversification of product categories is evident, with the plush segment surpassing figurines for the first time [9] - The company continues to launch popular products across various categories, enhancing its market presence [9]