光大证券发布研报称，关注车企AI转型、以及上游原材料涨价压力消化。该行判断，当前新势力车企 积极向AI转型(尤其人形机器人)：特斯拉规划将当前Model S/X生产线逐步改造为专门用于人形机器人 的产线、小鹏宣布将于2026年启动人形机器人规模量产、理想新设人形机器人团队。2025年底至今， 铜/铝/碳酸锂等新能源车上游原材料陆续涨价，预计整车毛利率将承压，关注后续产业链消化涨价压力 进度。 光大证券主要观点如下： 特斯拉：国产Model3全系交付周期为2-4周，Model Y长续航版本交付周期为4-6周、后轮驱动版本交付 周期为1-3周，Model YL交付周期为2-4周;Model3全系可享8,000元限时保险补贴+7年超低息金融政策， Model Y全系享7年超低息金融政策，Model YL享5年0息金融政策。 新势力：1)理想：L6交付周期维持1-3周，MEGA交付周期维持1-4周，i8/L7交付周期维持2-4周，L9交 付周期缩短至1-3周(vs.1月为1-5周)，L8交付周期缩短至1-3周(vs.1月为1-4周)，i6宁德时代（300750）电 池版本交付周期维持19-22周、欣旺达（300207 ...

今年特斯拉突然发布7年低息分期方案后，陆续就有品牌跟进，不过执行起来的细节并不相同。我们找了五个最早发布7年车贷的品牌，让销售来聊聊实际效 果和用户反馈。 特斯拉的7年低息车贷Model 3和Y都可以做，年费率是0.5%，看过的都说确实很低。 7年低息和其他方案办理起来没区别，都是银行做，只不过只有中信和浦发能承接。 整体来看，客户还是对7年贷款很好奇的，一方面是之前从来没有过，另一方面是费率确实低，都觉得很实惠。但结合实际情况来看，大部分还是选择五年免 息。因为对于真正有预算买车的客户来说，5年和7年的这点月供差，是可以忽略的。 我这里几乎没有做7年贷款的客户，问了问店里其他同事，他们做7年贷款的客户，基本上也就是首付想少一点，月供少一点，属于是靠自己买车的年轻群 体。 我们公司的主要趋势还是五年免息，但是7年低息让特斯拉又收了一波流量。从行业来看的话，我感觉特斯拉做什么，其他品牌都会学习和跟进，所以其他品 牌还是会陆续推出的。 7年车贷SU7和YU7都可以办理，SU7 Ultra暂时不行，年化费率是1%。 具体执行上和其他分期方案没有什么区别，甚至审核条件会更宽松一点，走的是易鑫金融。 客户还是非常容易接 ...

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto is undergoing a strategic recalibration by closing approximately 100 inefficient retail stores while simultaneously investing in AI and robotics, reflecting a dual approach of contraction and expansion in response to market challenges [2][4][12]. Group 1: Retail Strategy and Market Position - In early 2026, Li Auto plans to close around 100 low-efficiency retail stores, which are often located in prime areas of first and second-tier cities, as part of a broader strategy to adapt to changing consumer behaviors [4][27]. - The adjustment is not merely a cost-cutting measure but a strategic realignment following a year of declining performance, as consumers increasingly prefer shopping in multi-level commercial spaces rather than traditional car showrooms [6][29]. - In 2025, Li Auto set an ambitious sales target of 700,000 vehicles, which was later revised down to 640,000, with actual deliveries falling to approximately 406,343 vehicles, resulting in a loss of market leadership to competitors like Leap Motor [7][30]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - Li Auto's third-quarter revenue for 2025 was reported at 27.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 36.2%, with a net loss of 624 million yuan, marking the end of 11 consecutive profitable quarters [9][32]. - The decline in performance is attributed to setbacks in the pure electric vehicle market and increased competition from rivals employing aggressive pricing strategies [9][32]. - The company currently operates 548 retail centers, which incurs significant costs, prompting the need for channel optimization to improve overall efficiency [10][33]. Group 3: Future Strategy and AI Investment - Li Auto is shifting its focus towards AI technology and robotics, with plans to develop foundational models, chips, and intelligent systems, aiming to position itself among the top three global players in this field by 2028 [12][37]. - The company has expressed intentions to expand its brand identity from merely creating "mobile homes" to a broader vision encompassing "embodied intelligence," including the development of humanoid robots [14][37]. - Following the announcement of store closures and AI investments, Li Auto's stock rose by 4.9%, indicating positive market reception despite differing opinions among investors regarding the company's long-term competitiveness [16][39]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Analyst Ratings - Analysts are divided on Li Auto's long-term prospects, with optimistic views focusing on the potential of self-developed chips and AI models, while cautious perspectives highlight immediate operational pressures [18][42]. - Some analysts maintain a positive rating, projecting a target price of 100 HKD for the stock, while others have downgraded their ratings due to concerns over short-term challenges, setting a target price of 17.5 USD [18][43].

作为有70%投票权的创始人, 李想真打算全力做硅基司机/家政了, 不是demo，奔着量产去的。做硅基 生命要求的组织形式与车企完全不同了。 李想能不能做成是另外一回事，基于现阶段综合条件，没有主体能阻止李想将调集理想全部的资源做 这事。 李想已经把话说的非常清楚了。 站在2026年1月，不论是原有巨头还是全新AI公司，组织方式基本变成一样，各个团队整合在一 起进行联合设计，共同设计硅基生命的感知/大脑/心脏/神经/软件本体/硬件本体。和过去做软 件做硬件的方式发生了根本性变化，完全不同于互联网移动互联网时代。 理想要对技术和研发团 队进行大调整，把工作权限按照最先进的公司，按协作造硅基生命的方式进行工作。 硅基司机不是从A到B点，而是生活助理， 承担充电/接孩子/取快递/处理违章等事， 家政解决做 饭、洗衣、收纳等家务。 李想认为做家政的人形机器人的紧迫感强到 必须立刻启动，再不启动就会错过第一波最后的上车 机会。 空间机器人和人形机器人一些团队从水面下浮到水面上。去招聘最好的人。把原来由于没 有机器人，看到了很多机器人创业公司的一些人再招回来。 基于李想判断今天看机器人遇到的很多难题，非常像2025年2月7 ...

MegaETH, a hyper-fast blockchain backed by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, is set to launch on February 9. It will be among the crypto industry’s most anticipated debuts in 2026. The self-described “real-time” blockchain claims it can achieve “100,000 transactions per second with millisecond-level responsiveness” while maintaining compatibility with Ethereum. That promise has lured investments from crypto venture firm Dragonfly Capital, as well as Buterin, fellow Ethereum co-founder Joe Lubin, Eige ...

近期，有消息称理想将在2026年上半年关闭100家低效门店，同时当前理想常州工厂处于不饱和的工作状态，消息一出立马得到市场关注。 对于门店关闭的消息，理想选择辟谣，公司方面表示，近期网络上出现关于理想汽车出现批量闭店、裁员的舆情，均为不实信息。今年公司会针对少量能 效较低的商超门店关停，但不涉及批量关闭情况。 但对于当前工厂状态，理想并未进行说明。 一边是"关闭100家门店"的传闻发酵，一边是常州工厂产能冷热不均的现实困境，叠加销量同比下滑、产品战略摇摆的难题，这家车企正经历成立以来艰 难的转型阵痛。 清退低效门店 虽然理想辟谣了关店100家的说法，但其闭店的行为确在进行中。 曾凭借增程车型稳居新势力头部的理想汽车，陷入了前所未有的压力。 与之形成鲜明对比的是，生产纯电i6的三区开启双班倒模式，"人歇机器不歇"，日均产量稳定在700台以上；而同厂区生产i8的产线则因订单不足已停工， 且计划搬迁至北京顺义工厂。 这种产能失衡并非行业普遍现象，同在常州的比亚迪工厂，因出口订单充足，车间生产计划排满，工人多为单休，厂区门口烟火气十足，与理想工厂的冷 清形成强烈反差。 近日，《国际金融报》记者发现位于上海浦东陆家嘴中 ...

"尽管有7年低息政策，但如果买i6的话，我更推荐选择5年的购车方案。"1月26日，《每日经济新闻》记者走访车市时，北京地区一位理想汽车销售人员 这样说。 上述销售人员提及的"7年低息政策"，自2026年开年以来已成为新能源汽车市场竞争的焦点之一。进入1月后，特斯拉、小米汽车、理想汽车、小鹏汽车等 品牌纷纷推出或进一步强化了长达7年的低息购车金融方案，这一举措将传统汽车贷款周期普遍延长了2至3年。 得益于更长的贷款周期，消费者每月的还款额度得以大幅降低：小米汽车YU7月供低至2593元起；小鹏汽车全系月供低至1355元起；理想汽车月供低至 2578元起；特斯拉Model 3/Y/Y L月供低至1918元起。 有分析认为，在消费者仍持观望态度的市场环境下，车企面临着库存积压的压力。为刺激市场需求、提前锁定订单，车企纷纷采用贴息手段，这一举措旨 在抢占市场先机。然而，超长期低息方案的实际让利范围、成本分摊机制及对行业竞争秩序的潜在影响，仍需市场进一步验证。 "其实不用关注首付比例，因为每款车的售价不同，所要求的首付比例也不同，只要关注首付金额就行。"特斯拉的一位销售人员告诉《每日经济新闻》记 者，"比如选择A方案（ ...

以2025年畅销的10万元以下车型为例，补贴金额从固定2万元骤降至1.2万元左右，直接打击了价格敏感型消费者的购车意愿，导致低端市场需求萎 缩。 消费信心不足进一步加剧市场低迷。经济复苏节奏放缓背景下，消费者收入预期趋于保守，春节前传统返乡购车旺季风光不再，不少家庭将汽车这类 大额消费延后。更值得关注的是，此前三年地方与车企轮番加码的补贴政策，过度透支了未来消费潜力，如今补贴退坡后，市场陷入阶段性消费真空期。 供需失衡带来的库存压力持续攀升，让车企陷入被动。2025年12月，汽车经销商库存预警指数已升至57.7%，连续两个月位于荣枯线之上，南区库存 指数更是高达61.2%。然而部分主机厂仍沿用过往冲量思维，制定过高销量目标，通过"压库"向经销商转移压力，进一步加剧了渠道矛盾。在此背景下， 单纯的现金降价已难以撬动市场，车企被迫将竞争焦点转向金融工具。 1月6日，特斯拉率先打破行业惯例，推出覆盖Model 3、Model Y等车型的"特悠享"七年超低息方案，年化利率低至0.98%，以Model 3为例，首付7.99 万元起，月供可低至1918元，试图以低门槛撬动潜在消费者。据计算，7年总利息仅5000多元，而这 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [6] Core Insights - The automotive market is experiencing significant negative growth, with retail sales of passenger vehicles dropping by 28% year-on-year in the first half of January 2026, and wholesale sales declining by 35% [1][19] - The report emphasizes the need for supportive policies to stimulate market recovery and highlights the potential for growth in the overseas electric vehicle market due to favorable policies in countries like Canada and Germany [3][4] - The report suggests that the domestic market may rebound following the implementation of supportive policies, which could positively impact leading brands [4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - As of January 1-18, 2026, retail sales of passenger vehicles in China reached 679,000 units, a decrease of 28% compared to the same period last year, while wholesale sales totaled 740,000 units, down 35% year-on-year [1][19] - In the same period, retail sales of new energy vehicles were 312,000 units, reflecting a 16% decline year-on-year, and wholesale sales were 348,000 units, down 23% [1][19] Policy Developments - Canada announced plans to import 49,000 electric vehicles from China, significantly reducing tariffs from 100% to 6.1% [3] - Germany introduced a new subsidy program for electric vehicles, offering up to 6,000 euros to families purchasing new electric cars, effective from January 1, 2026 [3][44] - The UK government has launched a substantial subsidy program for electric trucks, with a total budget of 318 million pounds [48] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the potential for Chinese new energy vehicles to expand into overseas markets, driven by favorable international policies [4] - It suggests that the recovery of the domestic automotive market could benefit leading brands significantly [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for trendy toys is not a false need; entertainment is a necessity. The "Kidult" trend, driven by demographic changes, media evolution, and consumer psychology, is a long-term trend in the toy industry, exemplified by the increasing market share of companies targeting adult consumers [1][14] - The global entertainment and media industry is projected to reach approximately $3 trillion by 2024, indicating a growing market for diversified entertainment offerings [1][35] Supply-Side Growth Potential - Store Expansion: The company has significant room for growth in retail locations, with a projected increase in global retail stores from 571 in 2025, with a substantial portion located in China [2][58] - Increased Store Traffic: Domestic single-store membership is expected to rise from 145,000 to nearly 200,000, indicating potential for higher customer traffic [2] - Higher Member Spending: The maturity of IPs is expected to drive up member spending, as seen with the SKULLPANDA IP, where the cost to collect all items increased significantly from 5,922 RMB in 2021 to 47,430 RMB in 2025 [2] Demand-Side Competitive Barriers - Artist Talent Barrier: The company has established relationships with mature toy artists, creating a long-term competitive advantage [3] - Marketing Resource Barrier: The company's business model relies on top-tier brand collaborations and celebrity endorsements, which are core competitive barriers [3] - User Data Asset Barrier: The company's direct sales channels enhance its ability to control user data and market feedback, improving operational efficiency [3] Valuation Safety Margin - The company's valuation is expected to be significantly above 10X PE, given its growth stage and the rising influence of China's cultural output on its growth trajectory [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 369.57 billion RMB, 551.72 billion RMB, and 678.11 billion RMB for the years 2025-2027, with adjusted net profits of 123.76 billion RMB, 173.73 billion RMB, and 226.85 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 295.98%, 40.37%, and 30.58% respectively [4][7] - The target price is set at 359.72 HKD, based on a 25X PE for 2026 [4]