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January 2026 Trading Outlook: Fiscal Flows, Bank Credit, And Fed Policy
Seeking Alpha· 2026-01-13 22:07
Group 1 - The report assesses how fiscal and monetary dynamics are influencing risk asset performance, particularly in the context of cooling inflation, rising unemployment, and a potential policy shift by the Federal Reserve [1] - It emphasizes the importance of fiscal flow analysis, functional finance, demographics, and the real estate cycle in trading real estate, equity, and bond markets [1] - The analysis framework includes key economic indicators represented as a percentage of GDP: Federal spending (G), Non-Federal Spending (P), Net Exports (X), and Credit (C) [1] Group 2 - The report suggests that an increase in the federal deficit leads to a rise in private surplus, which in turn positively impacts risk asset markets [1]
November 2025 Trading Outlook: Fiscal Flows, Bank Credit, And Fed Policy Implications
Seeking Alpha· 2025-11-20 18:42
Group 1 - The report utilizes a sectoral balance framework to evaluate how fiscal and monetary dynamics influence risk asset performance, particularly in the context of cooling inflation and rising unemployment [1] - The Federal Reserve is indicating a policy shift, which may impact trading in real estate, equity, and bond markets [1] - The analysis is based on key economic indicators represented as percentages of GDP, specifically Federal spending, Non-Federal spending, Net Exports, and Credit [1] Group 2 - The report suggests that an increase in the federal deficit leads to a rise in private surplus, which in turn positively affects risk asset markets [1] - The methodology allows for quick analysis of a country's economic situation using just four numbers, facilitating a deeper understanding of fiscal flows and their implications [1]