Several months ago, you had a gold call on this show when you recommended we buy. And those who didn't miss a trick and the price went up, you've had a $5,000 call in it for the fourth quarter of this year and now you're raising it as the market is running in the opposite direction. You're raising it to 6,500.Why were you being pulled in with the market. Is it the right call at this stage. Why.>> Well, this is the decision, isn't it. This is the time that you either have to choose to lean into your convicti ...

Core Insights - The intensifying trade war between the United States and Europe over the Greenland dispute is prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets, with fixed-income securities being a traditional choice during geopolitical tensions [1] - Emerging Market (EM) Bond ETFs are gaining traction as they provide diversified exposure and a geopolitical hedge amid the tariff conflict, with a projected market share increase to 33% by the end of 2026 [2][3] Emerging Market Bond ETFs - The EM bond sector is expected to rally further in 2026, supported by favorable inflation dynamics and high real rates compared to developed markets, which will likely enhance inflows into EM bond ETFs [3] - The yield differential in developed markets is shrinking, making EM bonds attractive due to their compelling carry, especially as the U.S. dollar weakens and sovereign balance sheets improve in regions like Southeast Asia and Latin America [4] Specific ETFs Performance - iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB) has net assets of $16.70 billion and has rallied 11.7% over the past year, with top holdings in Turkey, Mexico, and Brazil [5][6] - VanEck J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF (EMLC) has net assets of $4.32 billion, gained 17.1% over the past year, and focuses on local currency bonds from Brazil, South Africa, and Mexico [9] - Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond ETF (VWOB) has net assets of $5.7 billion, also gained 11.7% over the past year, and includes bonds from Argentina and Mexico [10]

Core Viewpoint - Rising US-NATO tensions over tariffs and Greenland's strategic resources are expected to drive a rally in defense, mining, and industrial stocks, with five companies highlighted as key beneficiaries: Lockheed Martin, RTX, Critical Metals, Teck Resources, and Caterpillar [1] Group 1: Lockheed Martin - Lockheed Martin is positioned as a major beneficiary of escalating US-NATO tensions, particularly due to Greenland's strategic importance and the need for advanced military systems [2] - The company's F-35 fighter jets and missile defense technologies are critical for Arctic operations, with shares climbing about 19% year-to-date in 2026, driven by a proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027 [3][4] Group 2: RTX - RTX, formerly Raytheon, benefits from its defense technology portfolio that meets the complex requirements of Arctic operations, with its Patriot missile defense system gaining renewed importance [5][6] - RTX stock has risen approximately 7% year-to-date in 2026, building on a 60% gain in 2025, supported by a record $251 billion backlog and surging orders from the Middle East [6][7] Group 3: Critical Metals - Critical Metals owns the Tanbreez project, the largest non-Chinese rare earth deposit in Greenland, which aligns with U.S. acquisition ambitions amid geopolitical tensions [8][9] - The company has seen its stock skyrocket almost 150% in 2026, driven by high-grade drilling results and approval for its Greenland pilot plant, with potential to control 50% of the Western rare earth market [9][10] Group 4: Teck Resources - Teck Resources is a diversified miner with exposure to key industrial metals, positioned to benefit from strong commodity demand and geopolitical competition [11][12] - The company has gained around 5% year-to-date, reaching new 52-week highs amid copper price surges, with analysts targeting $80–90 per share due to structural supply deficits [12][13] Group 5: Caterpillar - Caterpillar is a significant beneficiary through its heavy machinery essential for Arctic infrastructure development and military base construction [14][15] - The company has advanced about 10% year-to-date in 2026, following a 58% run in 2025, with a record $39.9 billion backlog and projected 20.5% EPS growth [15][16]

Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a brief rise towards $95,000 but has since retreated to just above $92,000, reflecting a 1.3% decline over the past 24 hours [1] - XRP, which initially led a crypto rally, fell over 2% in two hours, while Solana (SOL) also saw a similar decline after an initial boost from Morgan Stanley's spot SOL ETF offering [2] Stock and Commodity Performance - U.S. stocks showed modest gains with the Nasdaq up by 0.4% and the S&P 500 by 0.3%, while metals performed strongly, with gold rising 1% to over $4,500 per ounce and silver surging 5% above $80 per ounce [3] ETF Inflows - Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest single-day inflow in nearly three months, amounting to approximately $697 million, indicating fresh institutional allocations and the unwinding of year-end tax-loss harvesting [4] - Ether (ETH) experienced a bullish flow with large block trades targeting mid- and long-dated upside via call spreads, suggesting strong directional conviction into the second half of 2026 [4] Options Market Sentiment - The options market reflects cautious optimism, with traders positioning for upside in both BTC and ETH, while BTC skew remains negative due to systematic overwriting and hedging from entities treating bitcoin as a treasury asset [5] - Risk-reversals, which involve buying calls while selling puts, are seen as a cost-efficient way to express upside views [5] Geopolitical Context - Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a geopolitical hedge, less influenced by inflation or central banks, and more connected to statecraft and long-term strategic positioning [6] - Bitcoin's 6% loss in 2025 has been partially recovered in the first week of 2026, with historical patterns suggesting it has never posted back-to-back losing years [6] Historical Performance - Historically, after years of poor performance, crypto has rebounded sharply, as seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022, indicating that 2026 could potentially be a strong year for digital assets [7]

Core Insights - Gold and silver prices surged as investors anticipated a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December and expressed concerns over the Japanese yen's impact on markets [1][3][4] Price Movements - Gold futures exceeded $4,270 per troy ounce, marking a significant increase and nearing its October record high of $4,336 [1] - Year-to-date, gold has risen over 60%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 and bitcoin, which is down approximately 9% from the start of the year [2] - Silver futures reached nominal all-time highs above $58 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 100% [2] Market Dynamics - Dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have increased expectations for a 25 basis point interest rate cut, which is expected to weaken the dollar and support precious metal prices [3] - The decline in the US dollar index and a sell-off in cryptocurrencies have contributed to the rally in precious metals [4][5] Analyst Predictions - Goldman Sachs analysts project gold prices to rise to $4,900 by the end of next year, while UBS has raised its price target for gold to $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026 [6]