I know no one wants to hear bullish ideas and everyone is scared and wants to fling poo at each other... but the Road to Valhalla is getting very close.If global liquidity is the single most dominant macro factor then we MUST focus on that.REMEMBER - THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN IS ROLLING $10TRN IN DEBT. EVERYTHING ELSE IS A SIDESHOW. THIS IS THE GAME OF THE NEXT 12 MONTHS.Currently the gov shutdown has forced a sharp tightening of liquidity as the TGA builds up with no where to spend it.This is not offset by the ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin's price dynamics have shifted, with the traditional four-year halving cycle losing its significance as a market-moving event, particularly highlighted by the 2024 halving [1][3][4] - Institutional demand and liquidity have become the primary drivers of Bitcoin's price, overshadowing the effects of halving events [4][6] Group 1: Halving Cycle Analysis - The halving cycle, which historically led to significant price movements, is now considered "noise" with negligible impact on daily supply issuance [3] - The 2024 halving resulted in a reduction of inflation from 1.7% to 0.85%, but the absolute reduction is less than 1 percentage point, which is minor compared to ETF inflows of $1–2 billion weekly [3][4] - Historical halving events show a consistent 50% reduction in inflation rates, but the relevance of this cycle has diminished in the current market context [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a macro asset, influenced by broader liquidity and business cycles rather than just halving events [4] - Current market indicators, such as the Federal Reserve's pause and dollar weakness, suggest strong Bitcoin performance anticipated in 2026 [4] - Institutional liquidity and derivatives are reducing volatility, indicating a maturation of the asset class [4][6] Group 3: ETF Influence - Global Bitcoin ETFs now hold over 7% of the total supply, approximately 1.4 million BTC, indicating a significant institutional presence [6] - ETF investors are characterized as "sticky," representing long-term allocations rather than speculative trading, which contributes to market stability [6] - Corporate treasuries and sovereign buyers are also contributing to the permanent sequestration of Bitcoin, further solidifying its position as a macro asset [6]

Market Cycle Analysis - DeFi Report 认为加密货币市场目前充满不确定性，可能面临牛市恢复或进入熊市的转折点 [1] - DeFi Report 此前过长时间保持风险偏好，近期已开始降低风险敞口，并评估了周期结束和潜在融涨的风险 [1] - DeFi Report 在 10 月 10 日的闪崩前已转为风险规避模式，原因是观察到市场杠杆过高但基本面疲软 [1][3] - DeFi Report 认为当前扩张阶段已持续 1044 天（截至 9 月底），与之前周期长度相似，暗示周期已进入后期 [2] - DeFi Report 认为即使在牛市情景下，ETH 的交易价格也可能达到 8500 美元，但在 10 月初仍将融涨视为基本情况 [2] Investment Strategy & Risk Management - DeFi Report 的投资策略是选择少量高质量资产，基于数据基本面（尤其是链上数据）进行长期买入并持有，同时根据市场周期调整风险 [1] - DeFi Report 的目标是在周期结束时持有更多现金，以便在熊市中进行部署，并强调在市场风险规避时进行投资 [1] - DeFi Report 已将现金头寸增加到 50%-60%，原因是比特币交易量低迷，ETF 流量放缓 [3] - DeFi Report 目前持有 70% 的现金头寸，并巩固了其最高信念的投资 [3] - DeFi Report 认为在周期后期，如果持有时间过长，可能会错过历史高点，因此需要根据信念采取行动 [3] On-Chain Data & Market Indicators - ETH 期货的估计杠杆率接近 1，远高于历史水平，表明市场存在过度杠杆 [3][4] - DeFi Report 认为大量稳定币购买活动增强了交易者进行杠杆操作的信心，但同时也导致市场结构变得脆弱 [4] - DeFi Report 认为长期比特币持有者已实现 9000 亿美元的利润，高于上个周期的 5000 亿美元，表明卖方压力较大 [5] - DeFi Report 认为 ETH 的已实现利润为 2600 亿美元，低于上个周期的 2200 亿美元，表明 ETH 的周期相对比特币较为平淡 [5] - DeFi Report 认为前七大加密资产的资本基础为 173 万亿美元，市场估值为 31 万亿美元，杠杆和估值溢价可能在熊市中消失 [6] Macroeconomic Factors & Liquidity - DeFi Report 认为全球流动性扩张可能持续到 2026 年上半年，但加密货币市场结构和基本面仍然重要 [7][13][14] - DeFi Report 认为银行同业拆借利率超过联邦基金利率可能导致银行体系流动性紧张，增加市场波动性 [7][18][19] - DeFi Report 认为财政政策（如关税）可能通过将资本从私营部门转移到公共部门来减少流动性 [7][39][40] - DeFi Report 认为 AI 泡沫破裂可能对市场产生重大影响，类似于 2001 年的科技泡沫 [7][34]

Core Insights - Bitcoin demonstrated resilience during the recent market volatility, bending but not breaking, unlike many other cryptocurrencies [1] - There is a growing belief among investors that Bitcoin may not experience severe declines linked to its historical four-year halving cycle [2] Market Dynamics - Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, argues that the traditional narrative of Bitcoin's volatility and cyclical crashes is diminishing [3] - Hayes suggests that the influence of global liquidity on supply and demand is becoming more significant than the historical price cycles associated with Bitcoin's halving events [4] Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's increasing tolerance for inflation above its 2% target could lead to a faster growth rate of the money supply, potentially benefiting Bitcoin as an inflation hedge [5] - Institutional investment in Bitcoin is growing, with the largest U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF nearing $93 billion in net assets, indicating a shift towards mainstream acceptance and demand [6] Future Outlook - A prominent investor posits that cyclical declines in Bitcoin's price may be less likely to recur due to these evolving market dynamics [7]

So it is it's kind of the the the universal beneficiary of people diversifying away from other currencies. Global liquidity and then you said momentum. I mean obviously right now it's taken on a little bit of a crowded stampede type of aspect.You look at the ETF flows. So you know it's gained a lot of strength and a lot of adherence and people feel like there's no headline that's not bullish for gold. We'll see how long it goes.Let's get the opening bell on the CNBC real time exchange with the big boy. Rice ...

Group 1 - Bitcoin's price movements are influenced by three main factors: global liquidity, the strength of the dollar, and U.S. Treasury yields [1][2][8] - Global liquidity has increased, with cross-border bank credit expanding by approximately $1.5 trillion in Q1 2025, reaching nearly $34.7 trillion, indicating a more favorable environment for riskier assets like Bitcoin [5] - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has weakened, which typically benefits dollar-quoted assets, as markets anticipate easier monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [6] Group 2 - Falling U.S. Treasury yields make safe investments less attractive, prompting a shift towards riskier assets, which supports Bitcoin's price [7] - Current trends suggest that Bitcoin's best days may be ahead, with potential positive effects on other major cryptocurrencies like XRP and Ethereum [2][8]

Market Trends - Global liquidity is on the rise [1] - Bull market environment for Bitcoin [1]

Market Trends - Global liquidity is expected to rise into 2026 [1] - The Bitcoin cycle isn't over yet [1]

Market Cycle Analysis - Crypto cycles are historically four-year rhythms, with potential for a Q4 2025 peak or extension into 2026 [1] - The analysis incorporates onchain and macro signals to understand the current cycle's trajectory [1] - Global liquidity trends and the impact of central bank policies, such as the Federal Reserve's stance, are crucial factors [1] Macroeconomic Factors - Powell's dovish pivot at Jackson Hole influences market dynamics [1] - Loosening bank lending standards could stimulate risk-on markets [1] - Inflation and market psychology are key considerations [2] Bitcoin and Altcoin Dynamics - Whale Bitcoin selling patterns are relevant to the cycle map [1] - ETH's breakout and altcoin flows provide insights into market trends [1] - Altcoin market dynamics are analyzed to understand broader market behavior [2] Portfolio Strategy - Portfolio construction strategies involve balancing core holdings with high-beta assets [1] - Holding fewer, higher-conviction assets is highlighted as a potential edge for investors [1] - Cash allocation strategies are discussed [2]

Market Trend - The FED is expected to cut rates in September [1] - This action is anticipated to increase global liquidity [1] Crypto Market Impact - The rate cut is considered bullish for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market [1]