Global Liquidity & Monetary Policy - Global liquidity is a balancing act, influenced by the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut signaling restraint [1] - The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) rate hike disrupts long-term yen funding [1] - Thin Christmas markets amplify every market move [1] Crypto Market - Crypto prices are repricing high-beta assets first [1]

BOJ Rate Hike to 0.75% Leaves Bitcoin Steady. Photo by BeInCrypto Japan’s 10-year government bond yields surged to 1.98% in December 2025, the highest level since the 1990s. It comes as markets braced for the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) policy meeting on December 19. The move has triggered a global rally in precious metals, with gold and silver surging 135% and 175%, respectively, since early 2023. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is under pressure as forced selling intensifies across Asian exchanges, highlighting a divergen ...

Photo by BeInCrypto Bitcoin traders often focus on the US Federal Reserve. However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) can be just as important for crypto markets. That’s because Japan plays a unique role in global liquidity. When that liquidity tightens, Bitcoin often drops hard. The ‘Cheap Yen’ is Bitcoin’s Hidden Liquidity Engine For decades, Japan maintained near-zero or negative interest rates. That made the yen one of the cheapest currencies in the world to borrow. This gave rise to the yen carry trade. Lar ...

All eyes on Powell. Bitcoin chops sideways. DATs collapse. Liquidity turns. This week’s live stream breaks down the biggest stories driving the crypto markets and what to watch heading into the FOMC meeting. We look at the market’s reaction to macro data, why Digital Asset Treasuries are collapsing, and the single biggest factor that could decide next year’s market direction: global liquidity. Plus: Louis with TA, portfolio competition, tweets of the week, top performers, and major dates for your diary. ~~~ ...

Begless Nation, this is Ryan Sean Adams. I have Michael Nato here from the Defi Report on the podcast today. Uh Michael, we are fresh back from holidays, man. How are your holidays? How was Thanksgiving? Did you get any weird crypto questions from your family? >> Uh a fantastic Thanksgiving. I appreciate you asking. I'm uh I'm actually on the road right now down in Florida. Um but no, had a nice little break. Talked a little bit about crypto with the family. My dad's uh flying high. He's actually more of a ...

Core Insights - XRP's primary advantage lies in its management and business relationships, positioning it favorably in the cryptocurrency market [1] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech is highly anticipated, with expectations of a 25 basis points rate cut during the December FOMC meeting [2][3] - Ripple has secured a significant regulatory win with the Monetary Authority of Singapore approving an expanded scope for its Major Payment Institution license, enhancing its digital payment services [5][6] Economic Indicators - FRED data indicates that US core inflation is slowing through Q3, while labor indicators show mixed signals, with initial unemployment claims at a seven-month low despite tech sector layoffs [3][4] - The correlation between rate cuts and market performance has weakened, although historically, markets tend to outperform in the months following rate cuts [3] Market Dynamics - The crypto market has seen a decline of approximately 20% over the past 30 days, with long-term BTC holders distributing their holdings [4] - Ripple's new licensing allows for a unified integration for corporate clients, enabling them to manage payments using XRP and RLUSD without additional banking infrastructure [6]

Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $86,800, down 5% over 24 hours, with a low of $85,732 during early Asian hours, indicating a weak start to December [1] - The CoinDesk 20 and CoinDesk 80 Indices are down more than 6%, reflecting a broader risk-off sentiment in the crypto market [1] Economic Influences - Concerns over potential Bank of Japan rate hikes and disappointing Chinese economic data are impacting risk appetite across regional equities and digital assets [2] - QCP Capital highlights that markets are questioning the easing of global liquidity, with potential selling of BTC holdings if shares fall below net-asset value [2] Security Concerns - Yearn, a DeFi platform, suffered a $9 million loss due to a hack, contributing to a total of over $9 billion lost to scams, hacks, and exploits in the past year [3] - Recovery from hacks remains low, with only $154 million recovered over the same period, raising significant concerns about security in the crypto space [3][4] Investor Sentiment - The lack of adequate security measures and recovery technologies is damaging investor confidence, prompting calls for institutional-grade security in the crypto market [4] - The upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is anticipated to influence market direction, with bulls hoping for dovish signals to support BTC [4] Upcoming Events - Key events include the trading debut of 21Shares Core XRP Trust on Cboe BZX Exchange and the mainnet upgrade of Ontology, which reduces ONG supply from 1 billion to 800 million [5] - The Federal Reserve is ending quantitative tightening, which may stabilize financial markets amid tightening liquidity conditions [5][6]

Bitcoin has crashed. The digital currency is now negative on the year. So what exactly is the data telling us.Zero head shows the last time Bitcoin was at this price level. Global liquidity was $7 trillion lower. Now this data point is a big narrative violation.Everyone, me included, everyone expected Bitcoin to close the gap between Bitcoin's price and that global liquidity level. So we have Bitcoin's price crashing even though global liquidity is surging higher. We have an asset that is now deeply oversol ...

I know no one wants to hear bullish ideas and everyone is scared and wants to fling poo at each other... but the Road to Valhalla is getting very close.If global liquidity is the single most dominant macro factor then we MUST focus on that.REMEMBER - THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN IS ROLLING $10TRN IN DEBT. EVERYTHING ELSE IS A SIDESHOW. THIS IS THE GAME OF THE NEXT 12 MONTHS.Currently the gov shutdown has forced a sharp tightening of liquidity as the TGA builds up with no where to spend it.This is not offset by the ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin's price dynamics have shifted, with the traditional four-year halving cycle losing its significance as a market-moving event, particularly highlighted by the 2024 halving [1][3][4] - Institutional demand and liquidity have become the primary drivers of Bitcoin's price, overshadowing the effects of halving events [4][6] Group 1: Halving Cycle Analysis - The halving cycle, which historically led to significant price movements, is now considered "noise" with negligible impact on daily supply issuance [3] - The 2024 halving resulted in a reduction of inflation from 1.7% to 0.85%, but the absolute reduction is less than 1 percentage point, which is minor compared to ETF inflows of $1–2 billion weekly [3][4] - Historical halving events show a consistent 50% reduction in inflation rates, but the relevance of this cycle has diminished in the current market context [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a macro asset, influenced by broader liquidity and business cycles rather than just halving events [4] - Current market indicators, such as the Federal Reserve's pause and dollar weakness, suggest strong Bitcoin performance anticipated in 2026 [4] - Institutional liquidity and derivatives are reducing volatility, indicating a maturation of the asset class [4][6] Group 3: ETF Influence - Global Bitcoin ETFs now hold over 7% of the total supply, approximately 1.4 million BTC, indicating a significant institutional presence [6] - ETF investors are characterized as "sticky," representing long-term allocations rather than speculative trading, which contributes to market stability [6] - Corporate treasuries and sovereign buyers are also contributing to the permanent sequestration of Bitcoin, further solidifying its position as a macro asset [6]