29 January 2026 | 8:32PM HKT Equity Research China Retail: China Jewelry: Milder industry growth in 2026E with focus on idiosyncratic opportunities; Buy Laopu We expect China jewelry market growth in 2026 will normalize to 4%, after a strong gold upcycle in 2025 (>60% increase throughout the year) which drove ~10% China jewelry market growth from a relatively low base (vs. 4% in 2019-23 after the market stepped out from the last downcycle) and sector share price outperformance of 70% vs. HSI up 28%. Thus, w ...

With a partial government shutdown looking very likely, the price of gold has been soaring recently. Two top-performing ETFs-Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Bull 2X (JNUG) and the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2X (NUGT)—give investors a convenient way to profit from this trend. And although Congress may find a way relatively soon to end the shutdown, several other factors that have pushed gold much higher over much longer periods are unlikely to dissipate in the near-to-medium term. Among these positi ...

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Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks are experiencing a significant increase as the price of gold reaches a new all-time high of nearly $4,700 [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Spot gold prices have rebounded dramatically, contributing to the rise in gold stocks [1]

Core Insights - The price of gold has significantly increased this year, reaching record highs in October, which is beneficial for investors but raises concerns for gold jewelry owners regarding the value of their possessions [1]. Price Trends - The price of gold has surged from approximately $2,658 per troy ounce at the beginning of January 2025 to $4,467 per troy ounce by the first full week of January 2026, indicating a substantial increase in value [2]. - Since the year 2000, the price of gold has risen by about 1,400%, in contrast to a 382% gain in the S&P 500 during the same period [4]. Jewelry Valuation - The retail value of gold jewelry typically exceeds the intrinsic value of the gold used, influenced by the quality and karat content of the piece [4]. - Pure gold's malleability necessitates its combination with other metals for durability in jewelry [5]. Insurance Considerations - Home insurance coverage for jewelry is generally limited compared to other personal belongings, with standard policies often having a sublimit for jewelry theft around $1,500 [6][7]. - The value of gold jewelry for insurance purposes may differ from its replacement value, which is closer to the retail value [5].

Core Viewpoint - SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), an ETF tracking gold prices, experienced a 0.94% increase in share price, reaching $399.63, marking a seventh consecutive session of gains [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The share price of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) rose to $399.63, reflecting a positive trend in the market [1] - The ETF has shown consistent performance with gains over the last seven trading sessions [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Gold prices have been on a steady rise in recent sessions, indicating strong market support [1]

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Institutional investors are increasingly optimistic about gold, with 36% expecting prices to exceed $5,000 per troy ounce by 2026 and over 70% anticipating price increases in the next year [1][3] - Notable forecasts from financial experts, including Ed Yardeni, Jeffrey Gundlach, Bank of America, and JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon, support the $5,000 target, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [2][3] Group 2: Macro Drivers - Key macroeconomic factors driving this optimism include a record central bank purchase of 634 metric tons of gold this year, a weaker U.S. dollar, geopolitical tensions, and two Federal Reserve rate cuts that have reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] Group 3: Investment Vehicles - Bullion-backed ETFs like SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) are considered the most straightforward way to invest in rising gold prices, but gold miners and related ETFs may offer greater upside potential if gold prices reach $5,000 or higher [4][5] - The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) and VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDXJ) are positioned to benefit significantly from a potential supercycle in gold prices due to their operational and financial leverage [5] Group 4: Diversified Exposure - For investors seeking diversified exposure, the iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (NASDAQ:RING) provides a broader investment base with reduced reliance on a few major mining companies [6] - The Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2X ETF (NYSE:NUGT) offers leveraged exposure for those willing to embrace volatility in the gold mining sector [6] Group 5: Potential for Miners - If the $5,000 gold prediction materializes, gold miners could become one of the most lucrative trades in the ETF market, potentially amplifying gains compared to bullion [7]

Core Viewpoint - Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) has experienced a significant share price increase of 82.3% over the past six months, outperforming both the Zacks Mining – Gold industry and the S&P 500, driven by strong earnings performance and higher gold prices [1][7]. Performance Comparison - KGC's peers, including Barrick Mining Corporation, Newmont Corporation, and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, have also seen substantial share price increases of 103.5%, 72.4%, and 55.4%, respectively, during the same period [2]. Technical Indicators - KGC has been trading above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) since March 6, 2024, and is currently above its 50-day SMA, indicating a bullish trend [5]. Production Growth Drivers - KGC has a strong production profile supported by key development projects such as Great Bear in Ontario and Round Mountain Phase X in Nevada, which are expected to enhance production and cash flow [10]. - The company has made progress in its Advanced Exploration program at Great Bear and confirmed strong grades at Round Mountain Phase X, indicating potential for high-margin production [11]. Financial Health - KGC ended the third quarter of 2025 with robust liquidity of approximately $3.4 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of about $1.7 billion, and reported record free cash flow of $686.7 million, a 66% year-over-year increase [13]. - The company has successfully reduced its debt, repaying $800 million in 2024 and planning to redeem $500 million in senior notes due in 2027 [14]. Gold Price Impact - Gold prices have surged approximately 55% this year, reaching historic highs, driven by global trade tensions and central bank purchases, which are expected to sustain the upward trend in gold prices [15][16]. Dividend and Analyst Sentiment - KGC offers a dividend yield of 0.5% with a low payout ratio of 9%, indicating a sustainable dividend [17]. - Analysts have raised earnings estimates for KGC, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings suggesting a year-over-year growth of 139.7% [18]. Valuation - KGC is currently trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 12.93X, slightly above the industry average of 12.79X, indicating a competitive valuation compared to its peers [19]. Investment Outlook - KGC presents an attractive investment opportunity due to its strong financial foundation, robust development pipeline, and favorable market conditions, making it a strong buy recommendation [21].

Core Viewpoint - Gold futures have reached a new high, with expectations for further increases, potentially reaching $5,000 per troy ounce by the end of 2026, driven by strong ETF flows and resilient central bank buying [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Front-month gold closed up 0.7% at $4,138.70 per troy ounce, marking the third consecutive positive finish [2][3]. Group 2: Forecasts and Expectations - Societe Generale has updated its target prices for gold, forecasting it to hit the $5,000 threshold by the end of 2026 [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - Gold has been experiencing a strong performance throughout the year [1] Group 1 - The demand for gold has increased significantly, contributing to its positive market performance [1] - Various factors, including economic uncertainty and inflation concerns, have driven investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The price of gold has shown substantial growth compared to previous years, indicating a robust market trend [1]