Core Viewpoint - UBS's report indicates that Starbucks's transformation plan and management execution, along with store operation reforms, have the potential to drive the company's fundamentals into a recovery phase, despite challenges from global economic slowdown and inflation impacting consumer spending on premium coffee [1][2] Group 1: Transformation and Management Execution - The new CEO and management team are believed to have the capability to successfully implement large-scale strategies, which will support gradual sales recovery [8] - The "Back to Starbucks" strategy includes comprehensive reforms in operations, marketing, products, and customer experience, aiming to enhance performance [8] - The introduction of the "Green Apron" service model is expected to improve productivity during peak hours, with around 2,000 stores already implementing this model [9] Group 2: Financial Projections and Valuation - UBS sets a 12-month target price of $95 for Starbucks, reflecting a cautious valuation of approximately 18 times the future 12-month EV/EBITDA, which is consistent with historical trading ranges [3] - The report anticipates a decline in same-store sales in North America for FY2025, with a projected decrease of about 2% [4] - Profit margins are expected to be under pressure due to rising labor and material costs, with operating margins projected to drop to approximately 10.8% in FY2025 [5] Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Brand Loyalty - Despite recent declines in customer traffic, Starbucks maintains a strong base of loyal customers, with improved perceptions of value among high-income consumers [10] - UBS's consumer survey indicates a slight increase in the willingness of consumers to visit Starbucks in 2024-2025, suggesting a potential recovery in customer sentiment [8] Group 4: Long-term Growth Opportunities - Starbucks has significant expansion potential in international markets, particularly in China, which could contribute to long-term revenue growth [11] - The development of new sales channels, such as ready-to-drink coffee and grocery sales, along with a digital membership ecosystem, is expected to provide additional revenue streams [11]