Young cadre Xuan Li shared her counterattack journey from an ordinary undergraduate graduate to a policy analyst at a prestigious institution. As an "atypical career person" who experienced seven layoffs in seven years and crossed over into military, politics, medicine, science, and art, she demonstrated with her own experience how to transform workplace crises into growth opportunities. "The world always tells us 'you are not good enough,' but my thirty years have proven that defying the odds doesn't requi ...

Buying Lumen Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: LUMN ) stock in late January has not borne fruit yet because its price declined by 14% since my previous Buy thesis . I do not care much about thisWith a decade at a Big 4 audit firm specializing in the banking, mining, and energy sectors, I bring a strong foundation in finance and strategy. Currently, I serve as the Head of Finance for a leading owner and operator of retail real estate, where I oversee complex financial operations and strategy. I’ve been an active inv ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed investment outlook for the consumer sector in China, with a preference for new consumer names that can deliver unique growth amidst demand uncertainties, while mature names face investor concerns due to fluid overall demand [2][12]. Core Insights - The overall consumption trend in China appears unexciting for 2Q25, with sequentially softer trends observed across multiple sectors, including spirits, dairy, sportswear, cosmetics, condiments, and prepared food, despite resilient headline numbers supported by trade-in policies [1][35]. - There is a divergence in stock preferences, with investors favoring new consumer brands that show strong growth potential, while mature brands are under scrutiny due to demand fluctuations [2][12]. - Structural growth opportunities are expected to drive stock outperformance in sectors such as sports brands, diversified retailers, pet food, beverages, and restaurants, while sectors like apparel, footwear OEM, and furniture remain less favored [2][3]. Summary by Sections Demand Trends - Sales trends are softening in 2Q25, with headline growth numbers steady due to trade-in policy support, but multiple consumer subcategories indicate fluid demand [35][37]. - Categories benefiting from subsidy support, such as appliances and freshly made drinks, show solid performance, while spirits and high-end restaurants face headwinds from anti-extravagance policies [38][39]. Pricing Dynamics - Emerging pricing risks are noted across various sectors, with increased competition leading to deeper discounts, particularly in the automotive and sportswear sectors [43][44]. - The report highlights a trend of rational spending among consumers, leading to weaker average selling prices (ASP) across multiple categories [30][43]. Sector Performance - The report outlines expected revenue and net income growth for new consumer names to outperform older ones from 2025 to 2027, driven by structural growth opportunities [12][21]. - Specific sectors such as pet care and freshly made drinks are highlighted for their robust growth potential, while traditional categories like spirits and dairy face challenges [11][21]. Future Outlook - The outlook for 2H25 suggests cautious optimism, with expectations of easier comparisons and continued support from trade-in policies, although growth pressures remain due to high bases and macroeconomic conditions [35][39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas expansion and product innovation as key themes for future growth, particularly for companies looking to penetrate lower-tier cities and international markets [31][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Asymchem, Kangji Medical, Weigao, Angelalign, and Hygeia, while Tigermed, WuXi XDC, WuXi Biologics, and Frontage are rated as "Neutral" [11][15][18][27][36]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the healthcare sector, particularly in the CDMO segment, with expectations for earnings resilience driven by new order growth and demand from both US and EU markets, as well as from Chinese biotech licensing [2][3]. - The Medtech sector is anticipated to see clearer recovery in the second half of 2025, supported by normalized hospital activity and new product contributions [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring pricing competition and consumption recovery signals in the services sector, particularly in consumer-related categories [4]. Summary by Sections CRO/CDMO - Earnings are expected to remain resilient, especially for companies with exposure to late-stage development and manufacturing projects [2]. - Key investor focus areas include new order growth, client behavior shifts amid policy uncertainties, and pricing and margin recovery [2][13]. - EPS estimates have been revised upward by an average of 1.3% to 1.4% for 2025-2027, with target prices adjusted by an average of 4% [1]. Medtech - Recovery is expected to materialize more clearly in the second half of 2025, with key areas to watch including the pace of VBP rollout and surgical volume trends [3]. - Companies like Weigao and Kangji are ramping up new product launches and global expansions, despite some tariff-related uncertainties [3]. Services - Reimbursement control and DRG/DIP pressure are likely to persist, impacting pricing and volumes [4]. - The report notes a cautious outlook for M&A activity, with companies like Hygeia becoming more positive while others remain cautious [9]. Financial Estimates - The report provides detailed financial estimates for various companies, indicating expected sales growth and net income projections for FY25 and beyond [14][19]. - For instance, WuXi Apptec is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 10-15% for FY25, while Asymchem anticipates double-digit revenue growth alongside margin improvements [19]. Target Price Changes - Target prices for several companies have been adjusted, with Asymchem's target price increased to HK$85.5, reflecting a 13% change [11][15]. - WuXi Biologics' target price is set at HK$25.6, based on a 12-month forward P/E of 22x [15][31]. Backlog and Order Trajectory - The report includes a detailed analysis of backlog and new order trajectories for key players in the CRO/CDMO space, indicating significant year-on-year growth in sales and backlog for companies like WuXi Apptec and WuXi Biologics [17].

Core Insights - The individual has a decade of experience in a Big 4 audit firm, focusing on banking, mining, and energy sectors, which provides a strong foundation in finance and strategy [1] - Currently serves as the Head of Finance for a leading retail real estate owner and operator, overseeing complex financial operations and strategy [1] - Active investor in the U.S. stock market for 13 years, with a portfolio that reflects a balanced approach, emphasizing value stocks while maintaining exposure to growth opportunities [1] - Investment philosophy is based on thorough research and a long-term perspective, aiding in navigating various market cycles successfully [1] - Aims to uncover promising under-the-radar stocks that may not yet be recognized by the broader market [1] - Background in auditing and finance, combined with hands-on investing experience, allows for unique insights and actionable ideas for investors [1]

Group 1 - The stock of Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has increased by more than 40% since early April, outperforming the S&P 500, which grew by approximately 12% [1] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of balancing a portfolio with both high-growth opportunities and low-volatility dividend-paying stocks [1] - The focus is on identifying high-quality companies with reasonable valuations rather than seeking deep discounts, as excessively cheap stocks may have underlying issues [1] Group 2 - The analyst expresses a beneficial long position in SMCI shares, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [2] - The article reflects the author's personal opinions and is not influenced by any business relationships with companies mentioned [2]

Group 1 - Mobileye's stock has rebounded sharply over the past week despite a lack of material news, indicating market confidence [1] - The signing of the first imaging radar customer is a positive signal for Mobileye's underappreciated segment [1] - Narweena, an asset manager, focuses on identifying market dislocations and believes in achieving excess risk-adjusted returns through secular growth opportunities [1] Group 2 - Narweena's investment strategy emphasizes company and industry fundamentals to uncover unique insights, particularly in smaller cap stocks [1] - The firm operates with a high risk appetite and a long-term investment horizon, targeting deeply undervalued stocks [1] - The aging population and low population growth are expected to create new investment opportunities, contrasting with past trends [1] Group 3 - Many industries may face stagnation or secular decline, which could paradoxically enhance business performance due to reduced competition [1] - Conversely, some businesses may encounter rising costs and diseconomies of scale [1] - The economy is increasingly dominated by asset-light businesses, leading to a declining need for infrastructure investments [1] Group 4 - A large pool of capital is pursuing a limited set of investment opportunities, resulting in rising asset prices and compressed risk premia over time [1] - Richard Durant, the leader of Narweena, has a strong educational background in engineering, finance, and an MBA, along with passing the CFA exams [1]

My November 2024 bullish ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML ) call was quite good because the stock has delivered a 13% total return since then, while the S&P 500 ( SP500 ) change wasAs an investor who started my path five years ago with my own capital, I represent a blend of hands on experience and academic background in corporate finance. Due to my relatively young age I thrive on discovering long-duration growth opportunities and actively seek out opportunities that align with my risk-taker mindset. In addi ...

Company Overview - SLB is reorienting its business to adapt to depressed activity levels, particularly in the onshore US market, with a focus on long-term growth in its New Energy and Digital businesses [1] Investment Strategy - Narweena, an asset manager led by Richard Durant, seeks to identify market dislocations due to poor understanding of long-term business prospects, aiming for excess risk-adjusted returns through secular growth opportunities in markets with barriers to entry [1] - The research process emphasizes company and industry fundamentals to uncover unique insights, with a high risk appetite and long-term investment horizon targeting deeply undervalued stocks [1] Market Dynamics - An aging population with low growth and stagnating productivity is expected to create new investment opportunities, contrasting with industries facing stagnation or secular decline, which may improve business performance due to reduced competition [1] - The economy is increasingly dominated by asset-light businesses, leading to a declining need for infrastructure investments, resulting in a large pool of capital chasing limited investment opportunities, driving up asset prices and compressing risk premia over time [1] Leadership Background - Richard Durant holds undergraduate degrees in engineering and finance from the University of Adelaide and an MBA from Nanyang Technological University, along with having passed the CFA exams [1]

Group 1 - Simulations Plus (SLP) share price dropped significantly after the company reported preliminary Q3 FY25 results that did not meet expectations [1] - The current weakness in Simulations Plus is attributed to soft biopharma market conditions and the company's relatively large services business [1] Group 2 - Narweena, an asset manager led by Richard Durant, focuses on identifying market dislocations due to misunderstandings of long-term business prospects [1] - Narweena aims to achieve excess risk-adjusted returns by targeting businesses with secular growth opportunities in markets with barriers to entry [1] - The research process at Narweena emphasizes company and industry fundamentals to uncover unique insights [1] Group 3 - Narweena has a high risk appetite and a long-term investment horizon, seeking deeply undervalued stocks, particularly in smaller cap markets [1] - The firm believes that an aging population with low growth and stagnating productivity will create new investment opportunities [1] - Many industries may face stagnation or secular decline, which could paradoxically enhance business performance due to reduced competition [1] Group 4 - The economic landscape is increasingly characterized by asset-light businesses, leading to a declining need for infrastructure investments [1] - A large pool of capital is pursuing a limited set of investment opportunities, resulting in rising asset prices and compressed risk premia over time [1]