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全球半导体:2026 年 HBM 过剩预计缓解,HBM4 规格升级-Global Semiconductors_ 2026E HBM Oversupply Expected to Ease on HBM4 Spec Upgrade
2025-09-08 06:23
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Semiconductors, specifically focusing on High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) technology Core Insights and Arguments 1. **HBM4 Specification Upgrade**: The data transfer rate requirement for HBM4 has been raised from 9Gbps to 10Gbps, which will necessitate all HBM suppliers to undergo new engineering and customer sampling processes to comply with the updated specifications [1][2][3] 2. **Impact on Supply**: Due to the stringent new requirements, it is anticipated that HBM4 supply will decline in 2026. The supply estimates have been revised down from 33.4 billion Gb to 32.4 billion Gb [3][4] 3. **Supply/Demand Ratio**: The HBM supply/demand (S/D) ratio is projected to ease to 1% in 2026 from 3% in the previous estimates, reflecting the anticipated decline in supply [4][6] 4. **Supplier Readiness**: Samsung and SK Hynix are considered well-prepared to meet the new specifications due to their advanced manufacturing processes. Samsung utilizes a 1cnm process for HBM core dies and a 4nm foundry process for base dies, while SK Hynix has a proven track record with its 1bnm process [3][4] 5. **Potential Delays**: The upgrade in specifications may lead to delays in GPU shipments from customers, as some memory suppliers may struggle to meet the new requirements due to their manufacturing processes [2] Additional Important Information 1. **Demand Projections**: The demand for HBM is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a demand of 32,059 million pieces (1Gb equivalent) in 2026, up from 25,877 million in 2025 [6][7] 2. **Market Share**: Samsung and SK Hynix dominate the HBM market, with their respective market shares expected to fluctuate as supply dynamics change [10] 3. **Capacity Outlook**: HBM capacity is projected to increase over the coming years, with Samsung expected to reach a capacity of 238 Kwafer/month by 2027, while SK Hynix is projected to reach 258 Kwafer/month [8][10] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the HBM market, focusing on the implications of the new specifications and the readiness of key suppliers.