Economic Impact - The ongoing government shutdown is projected to cost the U.S. economy up to $14 billion, equivalent to a 2 percentage point hit to GDP [2] - U.S. businesses and consumers are facing an average tariff rate of 18%, the highest in about 90 years, leading to an estimated income loss of around $1,800 per household this year [3] - Consumers are shouldering most of the tariffs, with American households responsible for about 55% of the new levies [4] Consumer Spending Trends - Record spending on Halloween is anticipated, with Americans expected to spend $13.1 billion this year, up from $11.6 billion last year [5] - Preliminary data suggests U.S. households will spend 4% less on gifts and 12% less on other items for Christmas compared to last year due to tariffs [6] Cocoa Market Dynamics - Cocoa prices have spiked due to plant disease and drought in West Africa, with futures prices reaching as high as $12,000 per metric ton [6] - Major chocolatiers have announced higher prices for chocolate products and have reformulated recipes to reduce cocoa content [7][8] - European chocolate manufacturers are expected to see a decline in operating margins this year due to increased competition and reduced demand for cocoa-containing products [10] Market Performance and Investor Sentiment - The S&P 500 has spent over 125 trading sessions above its 50-day moving average, the longest stretch since 2011, driven by enthusiasm over artificial intelligence [12] - Historical data suggests that stocks tend to outperform from November to April, with an average return of 7% during this period since 1945 [13] - If the S&P 500 is up more than 15% year-to-date by the end of October, stocks have finished higher in November and December 95% of the time [14]

Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The ongoing government shutdown is projected to cost the U.S. economy up to $14 billion, equivalent to a 2 percentage point hit to GDP [1] - Most negative effects of the shutdown could be reversed once the government reopens [1] Tariff Effects on Consumers and Businesses - U.S. businesses and consumers face an average tariff rate of 18%, the highest in about 90 years, leading to an estimated income loss of around $1,800 per household this year [2] - Consumers are shouldering most of the tariffs, with American households responsible for about 55% of the new levies, while companies pay 22% [3] Halloween Spending Trends - Americans are expected to spend a record $13.1 billion on Halloween this year, up from $11.6 billion last year, with nearly 80% of consumers anticipating higher prices due to tariffs [4] - Tariffs are also influencing consumers to plan for reduced spending on Christmas gifts and other items [5] Cocoa Market Dynamics - Cocoa prices have spiked due to plant disease and drought in West Africa, leading to increased chocolate prices from major chocolatiers like Hershey and Lindt [8] - Many chocolatiers are reformulating their products by reducing cocoa content, which has led to changes in product labeling [9] European Chocolate Manufacturers - European sweets manufacturers are expected to see a decline in operating margins this year due to increased cocoa prices and reduced demand for cocoa-containing products [11] - A recovery in margins is anticipated in 2026 as cocoa prices continue to fall [11] Stock Market Trends - The S&P 500 has spent over 125 trading sessions above its 50-day moving average, driven by investor enthusiasm over artificial intelligence [13] - Historically, stocks tend to outperform from November to April, with an average return of 7% during this period [14] - The S&P 500 has gained over 16% year-to-date, suggesting a strong chance of a year-end rally [16]