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By Oliver Griffin and Ana Mano SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Global agricultural machinery manufacturer Deere & Co.'s sales in Brazil could fall by a single-digit percentage in 2026 amid global uncertainties related to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs and high interest rates in the South American country, an executive said on Thursday. "Today, a positive scenario would be (like) 2025, but (sales are) likely to decline," Antonio Carrere, vice president of sales and marketing at the company's Brazil unit, tol ...

Core Insights - The current US stock market is at a critical juncture where macroeconomic conditions and industrial transformations are intertwined, with disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence driving productivity gains while inflation and monetary policy uncertainties challenge market stability [1] Industry Opportunities - Structural opportunities are primarily found in the technology revolution, with the industrialization of generative AI extending from infrastructure to application layers, benefiting cloud services, semiconductor equipment, and specific software service providers from capital expenditure waves [3] - Certain consumer giants with pricing power and global supply chain advantages demonstrate strong cost pass-through capabilities in an inflationary environment [3] - The biotechnology sector is experiencing value reassessment opportunities due to accelerated new drug approvals and a resurgence in merger and acquisition activities, particularly for innovative companies with clear pipelines [3] Market Challenges - Major stock indices remain at historically high valuations, making them sensitive to interest rate changes, with the pace of inflation decline potentially slower than expected [3] - The timing of the Federal Reserve's policy shift is uncertain, and prolonged high-interest rate environments may suppress growth stock valuations [3] - Earnings divergence is increasing, with industries overly reliant on low-cost financing or facing weak demand experiencing downward pressure on profits [3] - Geopolitical risks pose potential disruptions to supply chains and energy prices, necessitating vigilance [3] Sector Differentiation - Technology giants maintain relative strength due to cash flow advantages and technological barriers, but regulatory policy changes and capital return efficiency should be monitored [4] - The financial sector sees marginal relief in net interest margin pressures, yet risks associated with commercial real estate remain a challenge [4] - The industrial and materials sectors are significantly influenced by the global manufacturing cycle, with increasing regional performance disparities [4] - While essential consumer goods exhibit defensive characteristics, valuation premiums may limit upside potential [4] Investment Strategy - In light of the complex landscape of the current US stock market, a "quality first, moderate diversification" core strategy is recommended, focusing on high-quality companies with stable cash flows, strong technological barriers, and relatively reasonable valuations while remaining cautious of overvalued thematic stocks [5] - Utilizing market volatility to optimize holding costs and avoiding emotional trading behaviors is advised [5] - Close monitoring of inflation data and employment market changes is essential for timely assessment of interest rate impacts on corporate valuations [5] - Portfolio construction may benefit from cross-industry and cross-market capitalization diversification to smooth volatility while retaining some liquidity to address potential risk events [5][6] - Continuous evaluation of the core competitiveness and sustainable profitability of investment targets is a pragmatic approach to navigating market uncertainties [6]