High-tech Decoupling
Search documents
聚焦亚洲_关税之后的亚洲出口-科技主导-Asia in Focus_ Post-Tariff Asia Exports—Tech Dominance
2025-09-22 02:02
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Asian export market**, particularly in the context of recent **US tariff shocks** and the **technology sector**'s performance. - Overall, **Asia's exports** increased by **7% in US dollar terms** and **8% in real terms** through August compared to the previous year [2][3]. Core Insights - **Tech Demand**: The **AI boom** has significantly bolstered Asia's exports, with tech exports accounting for over **60% of total year-on-year gains** in the first half of the year [2][4]. - **Taiwan's Performance**: Taiwan's exports surged by **30% year-on-year** in August, contributing to **one-third of the region's total export gains** [2][4]. - **US-Bound Exports**: In August, **China's tech exports to the US dropped by 70%** compared to Q4 of the previous year, while **exports from the rest of Asia increased by 80%** [11][15]. - **Supply Chain Shifts**: Ongoing shifts in Asia's supply chains, accelerated by US tariffs and the AI boom, are expected to impact macroeconomic trends and financial markets across the region [19][32]. Additional Important Points - **Taiwan's Tech Dominance**: More than **70% of Taiwan's exports** are tech products, including high-end chips and servers critical for AI training [5][30]. - **US Tariff Exemptions**: US imports of high-end tech products from Taiwan have remained exempt from tariffs, which may continue due to potential waivers for companies establishing manufacturing in the US [5][19]. - **Taiwan's Trade Surplus**: Taiwan's trade surplus reached a record high of **23% of GDP** in August, indicating strong external balance [33]. - **Future Expectations**: Asia's exports are expected to remain resilient due to strong global tech demand and sustained gains in China's exports to non-US destinations [19][30]. Market Implications - The **USDTWD** exchange rate has been stable despite Taiwan's strong export performance, but pressures for TWD appreciation may resurface due to upcoming US-Taiwan trade negotiations and Taiwan's substantial net foreign assets of **USD 1.6 trillion** [33]. - The **reconfiguration of tech supply chains** is likely to continue, with significant shifts in trade flows between the US and China, as well as within Asia [23][30]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the resilience of Asia's export market, particularly in the tech sector, and the implications of ongoing supply chain shifts and tariff policies.