Market Overview - Market indices experienced a positive trading session, with the Dow increasing by 664 points (+1.43%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 gaining +2.14% [3] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw gains of +0.91% and +0.67% respectively, indicating a rebound from recent lows [3] Economic Indicators - Case-Shiller Home Prices for September rose by +1.3%, slightly below the previous month's revised figure of +1.4%, marking the fourth consecutive month where home prices lagged behind inflation [4] - All 20 cities surveyed reported month-over-month declines in home prices, with year-over-year increases led by Chicago (+5.5%), New York City (+5.2%), and Boston (+4.1%) [5] - Pending Home Sales increased by +1.9% month-over-month in October, improving from a prior month’s upwardly revised +0.10%, although still down -0.40% year-over-year [6] Consumer and Business Sentiment - The Consumer Confidence index dropped significantly to 88.7 in November from 95.5, the lowest level since April [7] - Business Inventories for August remained unchanged at 0.0%, marking the third consecutive month without change, indicating a potential need for increased production in the future [8] Company Earnings Reports - Urban Outfitters reported earnings of $1.28 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.19, with revenues of $1.53 billion, driven by a strong performance in its flagship brand [9] - Dell Technologies reported Q3 earnings of $2.59 per share, exceeding expectations, but revenues fell short at $27.01 billion compared to the anticipated $27.27 billion [10] - Hewlett Packard's shares declined by -5% following a revenue miss, reporting earnings of 93 cents per share against a projected $15.02 billion in sales, which came in at $14.64 billion [11]

Market Overview - Market indices began flat but rose due to expectations of easing Fed funds rates, with Kevin Hassett being a frontrunner for Fed Chair [1] - The Dow increased by 664 points (+1.43%), while the Russell 2000 saw a gain of +2.14%, S&P 500 rose +0.91%, and Nasdaq increased +0.67% [2] Housing Market Data - Case-Shiller Home Prices for September rose by +1.3%, following a revised +1.4% the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month where home prices lagged behind inflation [3][4] - Pending Home Sales increased by +1.9% month over month in October, up from a revised +0.10% the prior month, although still down -0.40% year over year [5] Economic Indicators - Consumer Confidence index dropped significantly to 88.7 from 95.5, the lowest since April [6] - Business Inventories for August remained unchanged at 0.0%, marking the third consecutive month without change [7] Earnings Reports - Urban Outfitters (URBN) reported earnings of $1.28 per share, exceeding expectations of $1.19, with revenues of $1.53 billion [9] - Dell Technologies (DELL) reported Q3 earnings of $2.59 per share, beating estimates, but revenues of $27.01 billion fell short of expectations [10] - Hewlett Packard (HPQ) shares fell -5% due to a revenue miss, reporting earnings of 93 cents per share against expectations, with sales of $14.64 billion below projections [11]

Core Insights - Investors are advised to focus on PulteGroup's new orders and home sale gross margin as key indicators of the company's performance [1] Group 1 - The upcoming earnings report from PulteGroup is highly anticipated by investors [1] - New orders are a critical metric for assessing the company's future revenue potential [1] - Home sale gross margin will provide insights into the company's profitability and operational efficiency [1]

Market Outlook - Piper Sandler expects improving EPS breadth to take over after three years of PE expansion [2] - The market has priced in very little macro risk, making further multiple expansion difficult, earnings will need to drive growth [3] - Stable to slightly lower interest rates over the last two and a half years provide tailwinds to the economy [5] - Globally, there have been approximately 95 rate cuts in the last several quarters [5] - Analyst estimates are starting to broaden out, and housing data is stabilizing to slightly improve [6] - Rising small cap and midcap earnings estimates are observed for the first time in three years [7] Economic Indicators - The current backdrop is considered a Goldilocks scenario, with a soft enough labor market to allow gradual rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8] - Broadening of earnings estimates has been strong across mid, small, and large caps in the last two months [10] - Green shoots are appearing in housing data, with purchase applications and refi activity continuing to grind higher [10] - The Fed funds rate is 125 basis points lower and is expected to be another quarter point lower by year end [11]

CNBC’s Diana Olick joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the latest housing data. ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a base case median expectation of two 25 basis point rate cuts this year, with a possibility of one rate cut being signaled [7]. Core Insights - The report outlines three primary reasons for a dovish stance from Chair Powell: three months of softer core inflation, rising continuing jobless claims, and softer housing data [6][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Inflation Data - Core PCE inflation is projected to register an annualized rate of 1.6% over March, April, and May, indicating a slowdown from stronger readings earlier in the year [9]. - The decline in shelter inflation is expected to continue due to weak housing activity and a decrease in Case-Shiller house prices [9]. Labor Market - Continuing jobless claims have risen to 1,956,000, the highest level since 2021, while initial jobless claims remain lower, suggesting weak hiring conditions [9]. - The labor market is perceived as "resilient" with 139,000 new jobs added and an unemployment rate of 4.2% in May, but recent data adds caution to Powell's outlook [9]. Housing Market - The housing sector is contracting, with prices, permits, and starts for single-family homes all declining. The NAHB index fell to 32, the lowest since 2022, particularly weak in the South [9]. - Current mortgage rates are contributing to the contraction in the housing market, indicating that interest rates remain restrictive and may need to be reduced [9].