Summary of the Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** market, specifically the secondary home market in major cities across the country [1][8]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Home Price Trends**: - Secondary home prices in major cities fell by **0.9% month-on-month (m-m)** in October, a decline from **-0.7% in September** and **-0.8% in August**. Year-on-year (y-y), the decline was **-10.4%** [2][5]. - **95% of the tracked cities** experienced m-m decreases in home prices, up from **84% in September**. Approximately **70% of cities** saw faster declines compared to **50% in September** [2][18]. 2. **Market Sentiment**: - High-tier cities experienced a deeper decline of **-1.2% m-m**, indicating a more bearish sentiment among residents regarding home prices compared to low-tier cities [2][5]. - The high volume of secondary listings is expected to continue affecting market sentiment negatively, leading to further declines in home sales and prices for the remainder of the year [1][5]. 3. **Listing Trends**: - Total listings remained stable, with a slight decrease of **0.1% m-m** in October. However, **45% of the sample cities** recorded m-m increases in listings, down from **71% in September** [3][5]. - New secondary listings softened by **-7% m-m** and **-7% y-y**, with over **80% of cities** reporting m-m decreases [3][17]. 4. **Visitations**: - Visits to agent shops increased by **3% m-m** and **3% y-y** on average in October, suggesting a potential shift towards secondary home sales due to fewer new primary home launches [4][5]. 5. **Future Expectations**: - The expectation is for further home price declines, with a forecast of a **high-single-digit percentage decline** in secondary home prices for 2025. This is attributed to high inventory levels and cautious homeowner sentiment [5][6]. 6. **Investment Strategy**: - The company maintains a defensive and selective approach, suggesting that the recent industry pullback may present good entry points for quality state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with alpha opportunities. In contrast, private-owned enterprises (POEs) may face challenges due to older landbanks [6][8]. - Recommended stocks include **CR Land (1109.HK)** and **C&D (1908.HK)** as long-term market consolidators, while **COLI (0688.HK)**, **Jinmao (0817.HK)**, and **Yuexiu (0123.HK)** are expected to outperform peers in the fourth quarter [6][67]. Additional Important Information - The report indicates that the overall industry view remains **in-line**, reflecting cautious optimism amidst challenging market conditions [8][40]. - The analysts involved in the report are Stephen Cheung and Cara Zhu, both of whom are certified and have not received compensation for specific recommendations in this report [23][28]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China Property market, particularly focusing on secondary home prices and market dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing significant downward pressure, with many homeowners facing challenges due to declining property values and increased holding costs [3][11][21] Group 1: Market Conditions - Many cities have seen substantial declines in property values, with Wenzhou experiencing a peak-to-date drop of 63.14% and Shenzhen down 30.06% [1][2] - The oversupply of housing and high vacancy rates, particularly in lower-tier cities, have contributed to the current market downturn [5][9] - The purchasing power of consumers has been overstretched, with household leverage rising to over 60%, limiting their ability to take on more debt [7][11] Group 2: Challenges for Homeowners - Homeowners with multiple properties are facing three major challenges: decreased wealth, increased holding costs, and difficulties in renting out properties [11][13][17] - The liquidity of real estate has diminished, making it harder for homeowners to sell properties, leading to a perception of wealth loss [11][15] - Holding costs, including property management fees and potential future property taxes, are expected to rise, adding financial strain on homeowners [13][15][21] Group 3: Future Outlook - The trend of declining property values is likely to continue, with younger generations showing less interest in homeownership due to economic uncertainties [19][21] - The implementation of property taxes could further increase the financial burden on homeowners, particularly those with multiple properties [21]

Group 1 - The real estate market is experiencing significant price declines, with properties in various regions seeing drastic reductions in value, such as a drop from 220,000 to 110,000 in a school district in Beijing [1] - In Shenzhen, high-demand properties have seen prices fall from 120,000 to 70,000, with a substantial increase in unsold inventory, reaching over 150,000 listings [3] - In smaller cities, properties purchased for 5.8 million are now struggling to sell for 3 million, with a vacancy rate of around 70% due to high inventory levels [5] Group 2 - The decline in property prices is attributed to a lack of purchasing power among younger generations, with a significant decrease in the number of school-age children leading to reduced demand for school district properties [6] - The elderly population, many of whom own multiple properties, is also facing challenges in selling their homes, leading to further price reductions in the market [6] - The government has accumulated 6 million housing units, and major developers are facing financial difficulties, with 127 companies going bankrupt in the first half of the year [8] Group 3 - There is a clear distinction in the market, where properties in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai still have some liquidity despite price drops, while third and fourth-tier cities are experiencing severe stagnation [10] - The market is becoming increasingly polarized, with younger buyers opting to rent rather than purchase, and older homeowners unable to sell their properties, leading to a growing trend of "price without market" [10] - Innovative developments, such as smart communities, are performing better in sales compared to older properties lacking modern amenities, indicating a shift in buyer preferences [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant decline in real estate prices, with many homeowners sharing their experiences of losing substantial value in their properties, leading to a collective sense of despair and comparison among them [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The real estate market is experiencing drastic price drops, with some properties losing up to 66% of their value, leading to emotional distress among homeowners [1][4]. - A specific example highlights a property purchased for 1.4 million in 2017 now valued at only 480,000, illustrating the severe depreciation in property values [4]. Group 2: Psychological Impact - Homeowners are engaging in a "misery index" where they compare their losses with others, finding solace in the fact that others are suffering more [5]. - The phenomenon of psychological balance is noted, where individuals feel better about their situation when they see others in worse circumstances, indicating a coping mechanism in response to market conditions [5]. Group 3: Anecdotal Evidence - A story shared by a user emphasizes the importance of timely selling, where a homeowner's decision to sell early resulted in avoiding a loss of over a million due to the market downturn [3]. - The discussion also includes humorous yet poignant observations about wealth disparities, such as an 8-year-old having a significant amount of money as a gift, which sparked conversations about economic inequality [5].

昨天的文章最后还是没了，所以支持不支持都一样，关键是这事就不是咱能讨论的。 我这两天生病了，昨晚就嗓子不舒服，发完夜报后开始发烧到38.5，昏昏睡睡了一晚，现在烧退了，开 始进入狂流鼻涕和咳嗽的阶段，各种症状看起来像是又阳了。 一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.9%，降幅比上月扩大0.4个百分点；二、三线城市二手住宅销售 价格环比分别下降1.0%和0.9%，降幅比上月分别扩大0.2个和0.1个百分点。 下跌不但没有减速，反而加速了。 最离谱的是厦门，环比下跌2.2%，同比下跌14.6%，这还是官方公布的数据。一个月跌房价的2.2%，厦 门本地人要上班几个月才能把这2.2%挣回来？ 另一个环比上2%的是惠州，广东的二线城市，之前一直炒作深圳溢出概念，现在深圳自顾不暇，环深 圳城市只会更糟。这就和炒股一样，一旦龙头股崩了，看似涨幅少、更便宜的龙二龙三龙四只会跌的更 多。 之前每次发这个表都会有人问为嘛没有苏州？没有不是挺好的，数据没公布就等于没跌，不然每个月看 也蛮闹心的。 这两年对于持币观望，或者打算小换大改善居住的人来说是心情愉悦的，每个月房价下跌的部分相当于 自己3-5个月的工资，躺平一年，白赚五年。 而 ...