Core Insights - A Zillow analysis indicates that a mortgage rate drop to 4.43% is necessary for median-income U.S. homebuyers to afford the median-priced home, assuming a 20% down payment, which many first-time buyers cannot afford [2][5] - In high-cost coastal metros like New York, Los Angeles, and Miami, even a 0% mortgage rate would not make homes affordable for median-income households due to high associated costs [3][4] - Conversely, in many Midwestern markets, current mortgage rates are already low enough for median-income buyers to afford median-priced homes [4] Affordability Challenges - The analysis suggests that mortgage rates would need to decline significantly for typical homes to be affordable for median-income buyers, which is currently deemed unrealistic [5][6] - Zillow's economic analyst warns that expectations for substantial drops in mortgage rates or home prices may lead to disappointment, as such corrections would require a significant economic slowdown [6]

Key Takeaways Lennar shares dropped 11.3% post-Q3 earnings, with EPS and revenues down 48.7% and 6.4% year over year.LEN's ASP fell 6.7% to $393K, with Q4 guidance at $380K-$390K, as pricing cuts pressure profitability.Gross margin shrank 430 bps to 18%, and FY25 EPS estimates slid to $8.58 amid ongoing housing softness.Lennar Corporation (LEN) has trended downward 11.3% since announcing its third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings. It has outperformed the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry, but is ...

Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Most Read from Fast Company For much of the past three years, Lennar, America’s second-largest homebuilder, has pursued an aggressive strategy: prioritize sales pace and market share, even if it meant slicing deeper into margins through price cuts and heavy incentives in the currently housing affordability strained market. That approach helped the company keep homes moving in softer Sun Bel ...

Core Viewpoint - D.R. Horton Inc. is expected to report disappointing results for Q3 fiscal 2025, with significant declines in earnings and revenues due to ongoing affordability pressures and consumer uncertainty [3][6][9]. Financial Performance - In the last reported quarter (Q2 fiscal 2025), D.R. Horton reported earnings of $2.58 per share, down from $3.52 a year ago, and net income of $810 million on revenues of $7.7 billion [3][6]. - Home sales revenues decreased by 15% to $7.18 billion, with the average selling price of homes down 1% year-over-year to $372,500 [3][9]. - The consensus estimate for Q3 earnings per share is $2.93, indicating a 28.5% decline from the previous year's EPS of $4.10, while revenues are expected to be between $8.4 billion and $8.9 billion, down from $9.97 billion a year ago [6][9][11]. Market Conditions - The U.S. homebuilding market is experiencing soft demand, elevated inventories, and margin pressures, which are expected to negatively impact D.R. Horton's Q3 results [10][12]. - The company anticipates home closings to be between 22,000 and 22,500 units, down from 24,155 units a year ago, due to affordability issues [9][12]. Segment Performance - Homebuilding revenues are projected to decline by 6.7% year-over-year to $6.56 billion, with home closures expected to decrease by 7.6% [13]. - The Rental Property segment is expected to see revenues of $343.6 million, reflecting a 16.9% drop from the previous year [14]. - The Financial Services segment is projected to generate $221 million in revenues, an 8.8% decline from the year-ago level [14]. Margin Analysis - The home sales gross margin is expected to be between 21% and 21.5%, down from 24% reported in the previous year, reflecting a contraction of 280 basis points [15]. - Selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenues are expected to rise to 7.9% compared to 7.1% a year ago [16]. Orders and Backlog - Net sales orders are predicted to decline by 3.9% year-over-year to 23,887 units, with the backlog expected to decrease by 6.3% to 15,737 units [16]. Stock Performance and Valuation - D.R. Horton stock has gained 9% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry but lagging behind the broader Construction sector and the S&P 500 [20]. - The stock is trading at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 11.01, higher than the industry average of 10.25 and above its five-year median of 9.44 [22]. Long-term Outlook - Despite near-term challenges, D.R. Horton maintains a strong market position and resilient operating model, with expectations for a rebound once macro pressures ease [26][27].